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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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212 FXUS61 KBGM 171821 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 221 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend, especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will trend cooler though the weekend. Drier conditions will return Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1135 AM Update: An organized cluster of showers is moving northeast into Central NY and parts of NEPA, with a few pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. The heavier rain looks brief, so not expecting any flooding issues. Isolated thunderstorms could pop up within this area of showers as well. Deeper convection over Central PA will likely push into the Wyoming Valley this afternoon, with a better chance for locally heavy downpours. Elsewhere it`s a difficult call, with stronger forcing remaining well to our west, but the environment is favorable for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon despite the weak forcing. 630 AM Update: The cluster of showers that has pushed through the area has progressed eastward a bit quicker than previously forecast and is currently located mainly across areas east of I-81, especially towards the Catskills. Made adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours to account this slightly quicker progression. Behind this initial cluster of showers, a few isolated showers are present, but mainly dry. Expecting that trend to continue, before there will be a resurgence of scattered showers and some thunderstorms by late this morning into the afternoon. 440 AM Update: Overall, an unsettled period of weather is expected in the near term with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms and also the potential for heavy rainfall/localized flash flooding, especially on Sunday. An already slow moving trough/upper level low will be slowed further as Hurricane Ernesto moves northeastward in the Atlantic. Our region will only be on the eastern periphery of this trough today and therefore, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be scattered/less widespread compared to Sunday. As a result, there will be some dry breaks in between rounds of showers. By this afternoon, a more concentrated batch of showers and some thunderstorms may impact portions of Northeast PA. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, but the greater threat currently looks to be on Sunday. Some thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds, but at this time, any severe thunderstorm potential looks to be on the lower side and mainly confined to the Finger Lakes Region. Highs are currently expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Additional rounds of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are possible tonight, mainly across the Poconos- Catskills. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 60s. As the trough/upper level low moves closer to the region from the Great Lakes and embedded shortwaves move through the area, coverage of showers and thunderstorms look to be more widespread on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. PWATs will also be around 1.75" with a southeast flow advecting in moist, Atlantic moisture. While the threat for flash flooding does not look widespread at this time, it is higher than today. Greatest chance for this would be across the Poconos-Catskills/the southeastern portion of our area. Otherwise, it will be a mostly cloudy day with highs mainly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 335 AM Update: An upper-level low opens into a trough that will move into the Northeast Sunday night and into Monday. This will keep showers over the region throughout much of the short term forecast period. With this system, there will be plenty of moisture. PWATs are expected to max out between 1.7 to 2.0. The concern for localized flooding will mainly be Sunday night. Some lingering issues will be possible Monday as well, but the risk will be lower. A cold front will push through late Monday and overnight, so showers continue through Monday night as well, but are expected to be lighter. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall covers areas along and east of I-81 on Monday. Models are showing some instability, so thunderstorms will also be possible, especially Monday afternoon. MLCAPE values will be less than 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear will only be 20 to 30 kts. The threat for stronger storms is low at this time, especially with better conditions expected south of our region. Temperatures Sunday night will fall into the 60s. Then on Monday, they won`t rebound much and only max out in the 70s. Strong northerly flow will advect colder air behind the cold front so temps will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 345 AM Update: Showers and isolated will linger into Tuesday, though the best chances will be east of I-81 and mainly over the Catskills and Poconos. High pressure and drier air will be filling in behind these departing showers, which will result in an extended period of dry conditions lasting through the end of the week. After a cool day on Tuesday of 60s for highs and 40s for nighttime lows, temperatures trend warmer but will remain comfortable. Highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak disturbances embedded in southwesterly flow will bring periodic showers to the region, with isolated thunder possible, through the afternoon and evening hours. Showers will be most prevalent across Central NY and NE PA, with ELM, BGM, and AVP most likely to be impacted by visibility restrictions in rain. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will be common, with VFR more likely at SYR and RME into the early evening hours. Weak forcing overnight should reduce shower chances, but ceilings will generally trend downward, with fuel alt to MVFR most common, and IFR possible at BGM pre-dawn. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Sunday, with MVFR ceilings continuing. .Outlook... Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR as high pressure builds in. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL/MPH AVIATION...BJG/MPH