593
FXUS61 KBGM 120632
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and steamy today with scattered showers and
thunderstorms popping up, especially during the afternoon and
evening. A frontal system will produce more widespread showers
and storms Sunday into Monday with locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures will remain quite warm well into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM Update...

A very warm and steamy summer day is shaping up across the area
today with an upper level ridge settling in overhead and a
moisture-rich southwest flow in place. Spotty showers and
thunderstorms around early this morning are expected to diminish
prior to daybreak, but the lull in scattered showers and storms
is expected to be short-lived. Ripples of energy moving along
the periphery of the ridge, combined with the instability from
the heat and humidity will be enough to touch off scattered
showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 17-18Z. While SBCAPE can
near or even exceed 2000 J/kg this afternoon, bulk shear is
pretty weak at 10-20 knots. The steepest low-level lapse rates
seem to be concentrated west of I-81 but the CAMs are not in
great agreement on where most of the convection tries to pop up.
With the relatively weak flow in place and PWATs climbing from
around 1.50 inches this morning to 1.75 to near 2.00 inches this
afternoon and evening, there can be some slow- moving storms
that produce locally heavy rainfall. As a result, WPC does have
most of the CWA under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

High temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to the low
90s. Factoring dew points that will be in the upper 60s to the
low and mid 70s, apparent temperatures this afternoon are
expected to be in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees across much of
the area. Heat advisories have been issued for this afternoon
across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes region and across the
Mohawk Valley where heat indices are expected to be at or above
95 degrees for two hours or more. Isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm will linger tonight. Staying warm and sticky with
lows generally ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

As the upper ridge moves off to the east Sunday, with the
center of the ridge axis located over New England, an upper
level trough and surface cold front will begin to approach from
the west. This will lead to a better chance of widespread
showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and
evening. Plenty of instability will be in place with
temperatures Sunday ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees
with dew points again in the low and mid 70s. SBCAPE is
projected between 1500-2500 J/kg, and locally higher, with
MLCAPE peaking around 1000-1500 J/kg. However, like today, bulk
shear values remain weak between 10-20 knots and. PWATs remain
quite high at 1.75-2.00 inches with locally higher pockets
around 2.10 inches being shown, and warm cloud layer depths are
projected at 10-12K feet. So while there is a marginal risk for
severe storms highlighted by SPC, slow-moving storms and heavy
rainfall leading to isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding looks to be the higher concern and WPC does have a
marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall over the CWA.
Depending on how quickly clouds and convection get going Sunday,
additional heat headlines may be needed, so this will be
monitored as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
110 AM Forecast...

The heavy rain threat will continue into Sunday night and Monday
morning for areas east of the Finger Lakes. Mid and upper level
flow will continue to be SWerly through the overnight hours,
with warm and moist air continuing to move into the region.
Heavy rain parameters remain elevated through the overnight
hours, with PWATs approaching 2in, warm cloud depth around 12k
feet and long, skinny CAPE showing the potential for efficient
heavy rain generation. MBE vectors are also short through the
period, lending confidence to slow moving and back building
storms. The heavy rain threat should end by mid-morning for
areas along and west of I-81 as the trough axis moves across the
area, switching the flow to more westerly and bringing in drier
air. Heavy rain potential will still exist for our eastern
counties into the afternoon hours with daytime heating adding
additional CAPE to allow for continued heavy downpours. Rain
chances should move east of the area by early evening. Highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.

High pressure will build into the area from the west behind the
departing trough starting late Monday afternoon. The dry air
ridding the northern edge of this high will  moving in from the
WNW Monday night will allow temps to fall into the low to mid
60s Monday night, about 4-5 degrees cooler than the previous
night. Dry conditions remain through Tuesday as high pressure
dominates. The ridge will be transient however, with the ridge
axis moving east of the area by Tuesday morning. This will allow
for SW flow to return and temperatures will climb into the mid
to upper 80s with a few 90s in the valleys of the Twin Tiers.
Dewpoints look to hold in the low to mid 60s, so heat indices
currently are below advisory criteria, but we will monitor this
closely. Tuesday night lows climb back into the mid to upper 60s
as continued SW flow brings warm and moist air into the area
from the SW US.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM Forecast...

Widespread heat returns Wednesday as temperatures climb into the
upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s will push heat indices into the mid 90s,
especially for valley locations. Heat advisories may be needed
for portions of CNY, especially in the valleys. If planning
outdoor activities for Wed, take precautions and be prepared for
hot, humid weather.

Active weather returns to the area by mid week, but uncertainty
remains as to if precip returns Wed or Thurs. A shortwave may
work its way into the Mid-Atlantic area, which would bring rain
showers and thunderstorms to the Twin Tiers and Catskills
Wed PM, or high pressure sticks around longer and rain does not
return until Thurs afternoon or Fri. Because of the uncertainty,
ensemble blend of NBM PoPs were relied upon which brings slight
to low end chance PoPs to the area Wed, with increasing chances
Thurs PM and Fri PM. Temps look to be around normal, with highs
in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish
prior to daybreak, but the convection that has developed has led
to the development of clouds over parts of central NY and NE
PA. High level clouds from a complex moving across Lake Erie are
expected to also stream in from the west, so there is some
uncertainty as to how widespread fog will be through 12Z. With
breaks in the clouds ELM will continue to have the best chance
for restrictions off-and-on and will be monitoring the marine
layer for potential MVFR restrictions reaching AVP as well.

Later today, pop up showers and thunderstorms are expected,
mainly after 17-18Z and continue to linger around through the
evening. However, confidence in where this activity is going to
develop is low, so left any convection out of the TAF forecasts
for now, and will evaluate more at the next update for any
better consensus. Winds will be light throughout this TAF
period though there could be gusty and erratic winds under
any shower/storm.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Mainly VFR with isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday... VFR conditions possible with high
pressure in control.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...DK