031
FXUS61 KBGM 180603
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
203 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level storm system will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area through Monday, with the threat of
localized heavy rainfall. Drier and cooler conditions will
arrive Tuesday, with fair weather persisting for much of the
week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
155 AM Update...
Current small clusters of showers have lost their lightning
upon reaching our Central Twin Tiers zones as well as Pike PA-
Sullivan NY, given nocturnal timing. We will continue to monitor
upwind convection in Central PA but expect these will also
decrease during the remainder of the pre-dawn hours.

Attention will then turn to renewed diurnally-driven convection
later today, especially afternoon-early evening. Axis of
instability will enhance along or just west of the I-81
corridor, then shift slowly east with time. Flood Watch
currently for Central Twin Tiers and Wyoming County, will
probably be expanded east; decisions on which counties are
pending. Meso-beta element vectors become very short late today
east of I-81, suggesting potential of training or backbuilding
of cells.

Previous discussion...
A broad upper low remains over northern lower Michigan, with
deep southwesterly flow in place across the northeastern US.
There are weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow,
which has led to some semi-organized clusters of showers today,
mainly across parts of NEPA and Central NY. But the stronger
forcing for lift remains to our west, and will continue to
remain so into the early evening hours. As a result, showers
will remain somewhat spotty, and more common roughly east of an
ELM-SYR line.

Convection developing in far western NY looks to move to the
NNE, but could graze the western Finger Lakes early this
evening, diminishing in intensity as it outruns the better
forcing.

Otherwise, scattered showers, with some moderate to locally
heavy downpours, will continue to be a risk through the night.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday as the
upper low moves into southern Ontario. Increasing low level
S to SE flow will transport deeper moisture into the area,
especially the Catskills and Poconos, while a jet streak
spreading from the Mid- Atlantic States into southern New
England will enhance upper level divergence across NY/PA.
Ingredients are there for localized heavy rainfall, but will
largely be dependent on where training of deeper convection sets
up. The Catskills into the Poconos/NEPA are somewhat more
favored given the deeper moisture, particularly late in the
afternoon and evening hours as a stronger shortwave trough
lifts up from the southwest.

A cold front will begin moving in from the west late Sunday
night, and showers will linger, but with diminished intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

The large trough overhead will slowly migrate eastward, being
mostly over the Northeast on Monday. Rain showers and storms can
be expected for the majority of the area all day Monday, with
rainfall amounts likely ranging from a quarter to half an inch,
with locally higher amounts where heavy downpours from storms
occur. The center of the low dives southward and into our area
Tuesday, maintaining chances for lingering light rain showers
and storms, mainly east of I-81. As this center low comes down,
it`ll drag some cooler Canadian air with it, going from highs in
the low to mid 70s Monday to the low to mid 60s Tuesday, and
dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update:

Things will get a lot quieter in this period as higher pressure
builds into the area. Low chances for precipitation is expected,
and temperatures will slowly warm back into the mid 70s to low
80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR to fuel alternate required ceilings will persist the
remainder of the night through morning from moist southeast
flow. As ceilings attempt to lift in afternoon, there will also
be heating-driven development of showers and thunderstorms.
Thunder chances are too iffy at this time to specifically include
in TAFs for KELM-KITH, but farther east there is more
confidence thus TEMPO CB groups have been introduced KSYR-KBGM-
KAVP-KRME. In the wake of showers-thunder, expect MVFR to fuel
alternate ceilings to redevelop in the evening, with potential
for IFR.

.Outlook...

Late Sunday Night into Monday morning...Likely fuel alternate
required to IFR ceilings.

Monday midday through evening...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
with resultant occasional restrictions.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR as high pressure gradually
builds across the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ038-043.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ022-024-055.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...DK/MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP