![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
031 FXUS61 KBGM 180603 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 203 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area through Monday, with the threat of localized heavy rainfall. Drier and cooler conditions will arrive Tuesday, with fair weather persisting for much of the week ahead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 155 AM Update... Current small clusters of showers have lost their lightning upon reaching our Central Twin Tiers zones as well as Pike PA- Sullivan NY, given nocturnal timing. We will continue to monitor upwind convection in Central PA but expect these will also decrease during the remainder of the pre-dawn hours. Attention will then turn to renewed diurnally-driven convection later today, especially afternoon-early evening. Axis of instability will enhance along or just west of the I-81 corridor, then shift slowly east with time. Flood Watch currently for Central Twin Tiers and Wyoming County, will probably be expanded east; decisions on which counties are pending. Meso-beta element vectors become very short late today east of I-81, suggesting potential of training or backbuilding of cells. Previous discussion... A broad upper low remains over northern lower Michigan, with deep southwesterly flow in place across the northeastern US. There are weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow, which has led to some semi-organized clusters of showers today, mainly across parts of NEPA and Central NY. But the stronger forcing for lift remains to our west, and will continue to remain so into the early evening hours. As a result, showers will remain somewhat spotty, and more common roughly east of an ELM-SYR line. Convection developing in far western NY looks to move to the NNE, but could graze the western Finger Lakes early this evening, diminishing in intensity as it outruns the better forcing. Otherwise, scattered showers, with some moderate to locally heavy downpours, will continue to be a risk through the night. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase on Sunday as the upper low moves into southern Ontario. Increasing low level S to SE flow will transport deeper moisture into the area, especially the Catskills and Poconos, while a jet streak spreading from the Mid- Atlantic States into southern New England will enhance upper level divergence across NY/PA. Ingredients are there for localized heavy rainfall, but will largely be dependent on where training of deeper convection sets up. The Catskills into the Poconos/NEPA are somewhat more favored given the deeper moisture, particularly late in the afternoon and evening hours as a stronger shortwave trough lifts up from the southwest. A cold front will begin moving in from the west late Sunday night, and showers will linger, but with diminished intensity. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM Update: The large trough overhead will slowly migrate eastward, being mostly over the Northeast on Monday. Rain showers and storms can be expected for the majority of the area all day Monday, with rainfall amounts likely ranging from a quarter to half an inch, with locally higher amounts where heavy downpours from storms occur. The center of the low dives southward and into our area Tuesday, maintaining chances for lingering light rain showers and storms, mainly east of I-81. As this center low comes down, it`ll drag some cooler Canadian air with it, going from highs in the low to mid 70s Monday to the low to mid 60s Tuesday, and dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 240 PM Update: Things will get a lot quieter in this period as higher pressure builds into the area. Low chances for precipitation is expected, and temperatures will slowly warm back into the mid 70s to low 80s by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR to fuel alternate required ceilings will persist the remainder of the night through morning from moist southeast flow. As ceilings attempt to lift in afternoon, there will also be heating-driven development of showers and thunderstorms. Thunder chances are too iffy at this time to specifically include in TAFs for KELM-KITH, but farther east there is more confidence thus TEMPO CB groups have been introduced KSYR-KBGM- KAVP-KRME. In the wake of showers-thunder, expect MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings to redevelop in the evening, with potential for IFR. .Outlook... Late Sunday Night into Monday morning...Likely fuel alternate required to IFR ceilings. Monday midday through evening...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with resultant occasional restrictions. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR as high pressure gradually builds across the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ038-043. NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ022-024-055. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...DK/MDP/MPH SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...MDP