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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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062 FXUS61 KBGM 181810 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. More widespread showers return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 155 PM Update... A welcomed quiet weather day after an extremely active week of destructive weather. High pressure continuing to build into the region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler and drier air into the region. Fair weather cumulus clouds will persist this afternoon, dissipating by the evening hours. A period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley fog developing across our normal foggy areas. With dry air in place and mostly clear skies in the morning, this fog should dissipate around 8am. Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and mostly clear skies giving way to scattered afternoon cumulus clouds. The center of the surface high will move over the region by the evening hours, bringing calm winds and mostly clear skies. A mid-level ridge building to the south of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog formation. Valley fog may develop early in the overnight hours with the clear skies present but will have a tougher time forming later in the night as clouds move overhead and reflect the longwave radiation back to the surface. Lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update Quiet weather Friday night, with some patchy valley fog expected as the region remains under weak surface high pressure. Seasonably cool with lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Saturday starts off quiet with partly sunny skies. Moisture gradually increases across NE PA and the Catskills from the south, along a weak surface trough. Model guidance shows some instability as well. Coverage of any pop up showers or t`storms remains questionable; but went ahead an included a slight chance across most of NE PA and up into the southern Catskills based on the 00z GFS. The rest of the forecast area stays dry, with drier air and more sunshine working in from the northwest late in the day. It will be warm, with highs in the low to mid-80s. Skies clear Saturday night, with light winds and more valley fog possible. Sunday is looking mostly sunny, with just an outside chance for a stray shower across northern Oneida county along a weak boundary. Starting off near 60 in the morning, with another warm afternoon well into the 80s areawide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 345 AM Update This period starts off mainly dry and quiet on Monday. A south- southwest return flow does begin Monday afternoon, so cannot completely rule out a stray shower or t`storm; mainly across the Poconos. Temperatures remain slight above average, well into the 80s once again. After this, our weather pattern looks to turn much more active. Moisture and instability increase Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday between an offshore Bermuda High and a slow moving trough trekking east from the Great Lakes region. This provides a deep south-southwest flow of moisture into our area. PWATs increase up between 1.7 to 2.0 inches during this timeframe. By Thursday, the center of the upper level trough/low is still near lake Michigan...so again it is a very slow moving feature. Out ahead of the parent trough, some shortwave disturbances will roll through our area, helping to initiate convection. Early indications are for deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, so some organized convection seems possible. Generally followed the blended ensemble guidance for this portion of the forecast, but decreased PoPs some into the high chance/scattered range especially for days 7-8 as the NBM can sometimes be too high with storm coverage this far out...especially considering the main energy with the trough remains back to our west. Temperatures are rather steady in the low to mid-80s with increasing humidity and partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies each day. Expect muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for most locations. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure building into the area will bring mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Fog chances return tonight for the valleys, with ELM and RME currently having the best chance to see restrictions. Confidence was high enough to include a TEMPO IFR period for fog tonight at ELM. Winds should go calm with a period of clearing after 5z that should allow radiational cooling to develop fog. Confidence in fog formation impacting RME is lower so MVFR conditions were introduced into the TAF. Hopefully guidance will give us a better idea later this evening. ITH and BGM have some very small chances of seeing restrictions but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs at this time. Outlook... Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...JTC