098
FXUS61 KBGM 140443
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1243 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue today, although an isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.
Temperatures will become increasingly warmer and more humid
through Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions for the middle
and end of next week. There will also be a greater chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1235 AM Update:

Made very minimal adjustments to the forecast; mainly updated
hourly temperatures to reflect latest trends.

645 pm update...
Overall little change to the previous forecast. Chances of
precipitation were increased over southern NEPA with showers
continuing to pop up there.

Previous Discussion...
Visible satellite shows scattered to broken cumulus under high
pressure. There were a few isolated showers popping up with the
afternoon heating in the higher terrain of the Catskills. With
continued insolation we will see a few more isolated showers
this afternoon in these areas. After the sun sets all this
limited shower activity will die down with clear skies and light
winds for tonight. We expect plenty of valley fog to form in
the twin-tier region into the Catskills where the terrain is
rugged enough for stronger mountain valley circulations. This
will lead to chillier air in the valleys and fog formation.

Then during the day Sunday heating will burn fog off, and lead
to scattered cumulus. The next upper level short wave will
ripple through the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon and lead to a
few showers and even isolated thunderstorms Sunday night. The
atmosphere will be stable most of the night so shower activity
will be slow to reach the entire forecast area. Have POPs
increasing through the night to cover this.

Heat indices on Sunday will be mainly high 80s to mid 90s so no
heat advisories needed for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM update...

Heat and humidity increases during this period along with
precipitation chances and severe potential. A broad area of quasi-
zonal flow extends over the northeast Monday through Tuesday. A few
short waves move along this pattern bringing a more humid air
mass into the region. This could set off convective showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Severe potential is
favorable both days with around 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and
20-30 kt of deep layer shear and weak to modest forcing from a
potential passing mid level short wave.

Held back on issuing an advisory for Monday as temperatures are
borderline with highs ranging in the mid to low 90s with dew points
in the 70s. Temperatures are forecasted to meet criteria for a
possible excessive heat watch Tuesday, but this is subject to
change based off whether showers develop earlier in the day
hindering day time heating. As of now temperatures on Tuesday
are forecasted climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the
region. Lows during this period will fall into the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM update...

Upper level low pattern settles in north of the Great Lakes with a
trough dipping into our region on Wednesday. A surface cold front
follows along kicking off more showers and thunderstorms.
Environment remains somewhat unstable with the frontal passage
enabling the possibility of strong to severe storms. Cooler air
moves in behind the front with northwest flow in place. High
pressure begins to build over the midwest on Thursday with drier
air expanding into our region. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the end of the period with high pressure in
control. Temperatures behind the front will range in the mid to
upper 70s during the day with lows in the 50s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM Update

After the sun sets, skies will clear and we will see light
winds. This is a great set up for strong net radiational
cooling. With light synoptic scale winds, mountain valley
circulations will allow chillier air to sink in our valleys of
the Twin Tier region to western Catskills and even down into the
Wyoming Valley. The terminal that is most likely see IFR/LIFR
conditions will be KELM, from about 8-13z; it could reach near
or below airport minimums for a time near daybreak if the fog
becomes dense. Included a tempo for MVFR mist/fog at ITH from
8-11z Sunday morning, but thinking the easterly drainage wind
will prevent IFR Vsbys here. The rest of the terminals should
remain VFR overnight. For Sunday we expect fog to burn off at
KELM with VFR conditions all terminals as scattered cumulus
again forms during the afternoon hours.

Winds will be light and variable under 5 kts tonight, then
becoming westerly 5-10 kts Sunday afternoon.


Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/DJN
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...DJN/MJM