737
FXUS61 KBGM 150843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
443 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will persist through Tuesday before
temperatures start to cool down Wednesday, and especially for
the end of the week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
in some spots each afternoon through Wednesday, especially today
and Tuesday. Drier weather will arrive late this week and will
likely persist through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
440 AM Update:

Quite an active/complex period of weather is expected during
the near term period with a combination of heat concerns as well
as concerns for strong to severe thunderstorms both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

An MCS and shortwave across Illinois and Indiana will move
eastward throughout the day. While this will gradually decay as
it moves eastward, it will arrive in our region by late this
afternoon/early this evening, which will be coincided by peak
heating on a hot and humid day (more on the heat a bit later in
this discussion). 25-35 kts of bulk shear combined with
1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE will set the stage for some strong to
severe thunderstorms to move through the area during this
timeframe. Some limiting factors include modest lapse rates and
the somewhat later timing of this event with it being a late
afternoon into the evening event, especially farther to the
southeast/across the Poconos-Catskills. In any event, while this
does not appear to be a widespread/high-end severe weather
event, some thunderstorms will have the potential to produce
locally damaging wind gusts, which is supported by inverted-V
modeled soundings. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
either, but this appears to be more of a microburst/damaging
wind threat compared to last week`s event. SPC has upgraded most
of our area to a Slight Risk in their Day 1 Convective Outlook.

The other story for today will be the heat and humidity as
temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s and dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will result in heat
indices in the mid 90s for many of the valley locations and
urban areas, although even this is a bit uncertain. The above
mentioned afternoon convection could result in slightly cooler
temperatures and therefore lower heat indices. If the convection
holds off longer, then these heat indices have a better chance
of being realized. Either way, the message remains the same; it
will be hot and humid today with afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms developing. No changes were made to existing
Heat Advisories.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish in activity as
the evening progresses and will be mostly over before midnight
tonight. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy tonight with lows
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Very similar weather conditions are expected on Tuesday with
more heat and humidity and more afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, some which may become strong to severe with an
increasing flow aloft. Similar to today, there remains a bit of
uncertainty regarding heat indices, depending on the timing and
coverage of afternoon convection. Either way, it will be another
hot day with highs again in the mid 80s to lower 90s and dew
points in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave will move through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be dependent on how
quickly cloud cover and any precipitation moves into or develops
over the region. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate most
locations get into the low 90`s with enough humidity to get heat
index values into the 95-100 degree range for valley locations.
Given these values are already slightly above criteria, a heat
advisory has been issued for Tuesday.


Enough instability (1500 J/KG mixed CAPE for model average and
lift does look present for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Some steepness of lapse rates in the low levels
looks present. Some mid- level dry air and about 30 knots of
0-6KM bulk shear to promote the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. These thunderstorms look to organize into clusters in
the late afternoon and evening hours as they move through.

A cold frontal boundary looks to then push through the region
Wednesday starting a cooling trend. This should knock highs down
several degrees. However, with the front nearby additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be tracking through the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front shifts south of the region Thursday with a slow
clearing to start but then high pressure firmly builds into the
region for Friday through the weekend. A much more pleasant
feel to the air with some 50`s for lows and highs close to 80
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours (at
least through 06Z Tuesday). However, showers and thunderstorms
will move into the area late this afternoon into this evening
and at least MVFR ceiling and/or visby restrictions will be
possible in any of these thunderstorms. Maintained the PROB30
thunder groups that were present in the previous set of TAFs,
but just made minor tweaks to the timing of them. In any
thunderstorm, gusty winds will also be a brief concern.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will diminish late this
evening/towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015-
     016-018-022>025-036-037-055-056-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG