478
FXUS61 KBGM 081755
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Not as warm, but still humid across Central NY today while
Northeast PA remains warm and steamy with the best chance of
afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Turning a little
less humid tonight as high pressure builds in. Wednesday will
feature just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm before
becoming more active again for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front slowly moving across central NY will continue to
gradually push to the south and east this morning before
stalling out this afternoon just south and east of NE PA. As the
boundary moves through early this morning, there can be an
isolated shower over CNY, but all-in-all it will be a largely
dry frontal passage. Behind the front, temperatures won`t be
nearly as high today with highs across much of CNY in the upper
70s to lower 80s, but dew points are expected to remain in the
mid 60s to nearly 70 degrees in some places, so it will still
feel on the humid side.

Across NE PA and the southern Catskills, it will still be warm
and steamy this afternoon with dew points in the upper 60s and
lower 70s and high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to near
90 degrees. The heat and humidity will help to destabilize the
area this afternoon and with the stalled front not far away,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up
through the early evening. There is some uncertainty in terms of
how widespread the coverage of the convection is this afternoon
and evening among the high-res models, with the HRRR and RRFS
being the most active and even brings a shower/storm into the
Southern Tier, there is the potential for any thunderstorm to
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. PWATs in this area this
afternoon range from 1.75 to locally over 2.00 inches with uni-
directional wind vectors which suggest the potential for some
training. Interestingly, despite the very moist environment,
model soundings are not quite as saturated as one would expect
through the whole column. In terms of instability, SBCAPE is
projected to range from 1500-2000 J/kg with about 25-30 knots of
0-6km bulk shear. Low-level lapse rates look pretty decent, but
mid-level lapse rates are marginal, between 5C and 6.5 degrees
C/km. Currently SPC has a marginal risk in this area for severe
storms this afternoon and evening, while WPC has a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall which seems fair at this time given some
competing factors. If future runs of the CAMs show more of an
active set up this afternoon with storms moving over the same
area, a short-fused flood watch may be needed for portions of
the area.

High pressure starts to build in tonight and dew points will
lower a bit, especially from the Twin Tiers northward into the
upper 50s and lower 60s, so it will feel a bit more comfortable.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the upper 60s
with some patchy valley fog. The surface high will be overhead
Wednesday morning and slides to the east in the afternoon. An
upper-level shortwave starts to approach from the west and this
can lead to an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon
and evening with the heating of the day. Highs Wednesday are
expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
200 PM Forecast...

Upper level trough is placed over our region on Thursday with a
short wave moving through. This will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday. Models show two moisture sources possible as
the trough pushes east. One comes in from the midwest and the other
rides up the Mid Atlantic coast. Once these features merge showers
are expected to increase in coverage especially by the afternoon
hours. In terms of instability, there is some uncertainty in how
unstable the atmosphere will be as morning showers could limit this.
At this time model guidance hints at CAPE values ranging 1,000-2,000
J/Kg along with 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, but mid-level
lapse rates are lacking. SPC has our region under general thunder,
but this could change depending on how the forecast trends.

There is some isolated flash flooding potential over the eastern
portion of our region. PWATs are somewhat favorable as well as the
warm cloud layer of 11 to 12k feet. WPC has our region in a marginal
risk for flash flooding mainly over the western Catskills
region and Pocono mountain region. General thinking is that any
convective showers that form could lead to some isolated flash
flooding concerns. With the loss of daytime heating, the
environment will quickly become more stable late Thursday
evening. Isolated to scattered showers temperatures will linger
into the overnight hours with temperatures falling into the low
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM Forecast...

Surface high pressure will attempt to build in from the west on
Friday, helping conditions gradually dry out across most of the
region. However, some model guidance suggests lingering showers
may persist into Friday morning, depending on the timing of the
upper troughs departure. By Friday evening, an upper level ridge
is expected to push into the region, leading to quiet weather
overnight. This ridge should remain in place through most of
Saturday, though increasing chances for showers are expected by
evening as the flow shifts to the southwest. Southwest flow will
transport a warmer, more humid airmass into the region,
potentially kicking off additional showers. A more organized
frontal system is expected to approach on Sunday, brining a
higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this system
northwest flow returns on Monday with slightly cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Varying conditions will continue across the terminals the rest
of this morning ranging from VFR to IFR or worse as a cold front
slowly pushes south and east. Areas of low clouds and fog that
have managed to form below the main cloud deck are expected to
lead to below airport mins at ITH through 13Z before starting to
gradually improve.

This afternoon and evening is expected to feature mainly VFR
conditions. The exception is AVP which will have best chance of
seeing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms develop
nearby with a frontal boundary stalling out close to the region.
Any thunderstorm can lead to brief restrictions. While there is
some uncertainty with timing and coverage of storms, the best
chance for convection this afternoon looks to be after 20Z.
Areas of low clouds/fog are possible later tonight into early
Wednesday, especially around ITH, ELM and BGM.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Some morning low clouds and fog, especially around
ELM, ITH and BGM, otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions possible with some showers and
thunderstorms around.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Scattered showers/storms possible and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...DK