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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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303 FXUS61 KBGM 151955 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions with several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. A cold front will much some relief and shift thunderstorm chances east of the region by Thursday. High pressure builds into the region for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A MCV is moving into western New York as of mid-afternoon and will move east through the region by early evening. Instability is rather high given the hot and humid airmass in place with steep low level lapse rates, surface CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG and mixed layer CAPE of 1,000-2,000 J/KG. The MCV is also generating localized shear on the order of 30-40 knots. Given this environment expectations are for the thunderstorms to continue to organize into a squall line and advance eastward with the threat for damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect for most locations near and west of I-81. This watch maybe locally expanded if conditions warrant later this evening. Conditions will clear out for most of the region but low clouds should linger longer across the NY Thruway region with the MCV a bit slower to depart that area. Given more in the way of clouds and still being very muggy, temperatures only look to fall to around 70. Given light winds overnight some patchy valley fog can not be ruled out. Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms tonight to our west ahead of a cold front overnight make the coverage and location of additional showers and thunderstorms more uncertain. Confidence is higher with another hot and humid day with highs into the 90`s again combined with the higher humidity to get heat index values well into the 90`s for valley locations in NY with some 100 degree values in NE PA. The heat advisory continues through Tuesday. The environment Tuesday afternoon and evening looks unstable again given the hot and humid conditions. Modest 0-6KM bulk shear of 30-40 knots is modeled as well and the combination of all this indicates that thunderstorms may produce gusty to perhaps damaging winds once again. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease Tuesday night with another muggy night in store with lows around 70 again. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 330 PM Update... Shortwave trough begins to move into the region on Wednesday along with a surface cold front. Ahead of the front southwest flow advects warm air along with plenty of moisture. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, but main precipitation is expected to move through with the front sometime Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Instability is expected to build in late morning through the afternoon. Model soundings show modest mid level lapse rates with favorable shear. SPC has our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with severe potential being mainly over Catskills region NY and northeast PA. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to push east of the area for Wednesday night. In terms of temperatures a wide range is expected due to the timing of the frontal passage. Central NY will climb into the mid 70s to low 80s, while northeast PA will see temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Shortwave trough slides east on Thursday with lingering moisture remaining over our region. An additional shower or two is possible as the wave slowly makes an exit. Otherwise conditions begin to clear with drier conditions returning. Northwest flow settles in with slightly cooler temperatures as highs are forecasted to range in the mid 70s to low 80s during the day with overnight lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 PM Update... Quiet weather is expected during this period as surface high pressure is in control. Models begin to diverge in terms of upper level pattern but are in agreeance of a somewhat dry period. High pressure holds through Saturday with a possible frontal passage moving through on Sunday. Otherwise Monday looks to also be rather quiet with high pressure building back in. Temperatures during this time frame are expected to range in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move west to east through all terminals late this afternoon into the evening. Timing is still somewhat uncertain by a hour or two. Have gone with TEMPO groups to show this, although the actual thunderstorm likely will last about a half hour. Fog formation is possible overnight as well with the highest chance at KELM. However, MVFR stratus is likely overnight at KSYR and KRME. Any restrictions burn off Tuesday morning then VFR by late morning. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon; otherwise mainly VFR. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015-016-018- 022>025-036-037-055-056-062. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MWG