132
FXUS61 KBGM 160016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
816 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with several rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. A cold front will
much some relief and shift thunderstorm chances east of the
region by Thursday. High pressure builds into the region for the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Adjusted pops and QPF with the early evening update. Watch was
expanded eastward to cover the rest of the region given
favorable environment. The watch was also cleared for areas
west of the ongoing line. This line should clear the region by
late evening with a few lingering showers behind it.


A MCV is moving into western New York as of mid-afternoon and
will move east through the region by early evening. Instability
is rather high given the hot and humid airmass in place with
steep low level lapse rates, surface CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG
and mixed layer CAPE of 1,000-2,000 J/KG. The MCV is also
generating localized shear on the order of 30-40 knots. Given
this environment expectations are for the thunderstorms to
continue to organize into a squall line and advance eastward
with the threat for damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch
remains in effect for most locations near and west of I-81. This
watch maybe locally expanded if conditions warrant later this
evening.

Conditions will clear out for most of the region but low clouds
should linger longer across the NY Thruway region with the MCV a bit
slower to depart that area. Given more in the way of clouds and
still being very muggy, temperatures only look to fall to around 70.
Given light winds overnight some patchy valley fog can not be ruled
out.

Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms tonight to our west
ahead of a cold front overnight make the coverage and location of
additional showers and thunderstorms more uncertain. Confidence is
higher with another hot and humid day with highs into the 90`s again
combined with the higher humidity to get heat index values well
into the 90`s for valley locations in NY with some 100 degree
values in NE PA. The heat advisory continues through Tuesday.

The environment Tuesday afternoon and evening looks unstable
again given the hot and humid conditions. Modest 0-6KM bulk
shear of 30-40 knots is modeled as well and the combination of
all this indicates that thunderstorms may produce gusty to
perhaps damaging winds once again. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should decrease Tuesday night with another muggy
night in store with lows around 70 again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Shortwave trough begins to move into the region on Wednesday along
with a surface cold front. Ahead of the front southwest flow advects
warm air along with plenty of moisture. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected ahead of the front, but main precipitation is expected
to move through with the front sometime Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday evening. Instability is expected to build in
late morning through the afternoon. Model soundings show modest
mid level lapse rates with favorable shear. SPC has our region
in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with severe
potential being mainly over Catskills region NY and northeast
PA. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to push east of the
area for Wednesday night. In terms of temperatures a wide range
is expected due to the timing of the frontal passage. Central NY
will climb into the mid 70s to low 80s, while northeast PA will
see temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight
lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

Shortwave trough slides east on Thursday with lingering
moisture remaining over our region. An additional shower or two
is possible as the wave slowly makes an exit. Otherwise
conditions begin to clear with drier conditions returning.
Northwest flow settles in with slightly cooler temperatures as
highs are forecasted to range in the mid 70s to low 80s during
the day with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM Update...

Quiet weather is expected during this period as surface high
pressure is in control. Models begin to diverge in terms of upper
level pattern but are in agreeance of a somewhat dry period.
High pressure holds through Saturday with a possible frontal
passage moving through on Sunday. Otherwise Monday looks to also
be rather quiet with high pressure building back in.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to range in the
low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move west to
east through all terminals till about 02Z. Conditions improve
to VFR after the storms pass.

Fog formation is possible overnight as well with the highest
chance at KELM. However, MVFR stratus is likely overnight at
KSYR and KRME.

Any restrictions burn off Tuesday morning then VFR by late
morning. Still considerable uncertainity for timing and
coverage of any showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each
afternoon; otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015-016-018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG