110
FXUS61 KBGM 171748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trailing cold front will move through the area today, bringing
one last round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few
storms may again become severe, with damaging wind gusts. An
extended period of fair weather looks settle in for Thursday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1 PM Update...

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of the
region. Cloud cover has limited instability across much of
Central NY and into the Southern Tier, however portions of NE PA
and Delaware and Sullivan Counties have been cloud-free this
morning. SPC mesoanalysis shows CAPE values of 1500 - 2000 J/kg
in this region and also stronger DCAPE values across the
Catskills and eastern Poconos. Expecting storms to grow in
coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours before
pushing out of our region late this afternoon and this evening.

930 AM Update...

Forecast remaining mostly on-track. Extensive cloud cover across
the northwestern half of the CWA this morning and increased
cloud cover with this update based on latest METSAT. These
clouds will limit instability and lower the risk for severe
storms later this afternoon. Best chance for severe weather
today will be across the NE PA and into the southern Catskills
in Sullivan County NY.

355 AM Update...

A deep upper level trough over central Ontario will move slowly
eastward today, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft across
the northeastern states. A weak shortwave trough embedded in the
southwesterly flow will drift through the area this afternoon,
as a cold front currently over the eastern Great Lakes heads
east. This will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, particularly over eastern parts of
the CWA where moisture and instability ahead of the front will
linger into the afternoon hours. The risk of severe weather will
be most pronounced near and SE of the I-88 corridor, where bulk
shear will be strongest (40 knots) and where the timing of the
cold front passage will maximize diurnal heating, building
stronger instability. Wind shear in the lowest levels will be
weaker than yesterday, and the primary threat from severe
thunderstorms looks to be isolated damaging wind gusts from the
more typical multi-cell clusters/bowing segments, and perhaps a
little less organized/mature compared to what we`ve experienced
the last couple of days.

Precip will push east of the area late tonight, with some patchy
valley fog possible in the most sheltered valleys. Fair weather
is expected through Thursday with temperatures topping out in
70s to lower-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM Update...

Upper level trough along with surface high pressure will be in
control Friday. Calm and dry conditions are expected with mostly
sunny skies. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the more
comfortable side with highs ranging in the mid to upper 70s with
some spots in the low 80s. Calm winds and clear skies continue
overnight with radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall
into the 50s across the region.

Upper level heights lift by Saturday as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft with high pressure sliding east over our
region. Conditions remain mostly dry for most of the day with
some models trying to hint at possible showers moving in
Saturday evening. Despite this model soundings continue to show
dry air in the low levels, so if anything were to develop it
would be in the form of sprinkles. Otherwise flow becomes south
to southwest with slightly warmer temperatures expected. Highs
will range in the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will range slightly warmer in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM Update...

A weak cold front moves north to south over our region on Sunday
kicking of possible showers in CNY. Mainly expecting showers to be
light in nature as frontal system seems to lack moisture. Conditions
begin to change early next week as a stationary front that was
located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually moves
north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray showers
and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours. Chances
for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts even
further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary.
Models begin to diverge on Wednesday in terms of overall
pattern, otherwise southerly flow organizes advecting more
moisture into the region. Showers are anticipated at this time
for Wednesday. Temperatures this period will max out in the
upper 70s and 80s. Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and
60s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms expected today, generally south of
SYR. The best coverage/chances for thunderstorms will be ELM,
BGM and AVP. Showers and storms come to an end this evening as
cold front exit the area. Some patchy valley fog is possible
again tonight, but overall confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time as cloud cover is likely to persist behind
the cold front.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL/ES
AVIATION...MPK/MPH