342
FXUS61 KBGM 160616
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with another round  of strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. A cold front will
much some relief and shift thunderstorm chances east of the
region by Thursday. High pressure builds into the region for the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM Update

After a very active evening with numerous significant severe
thunderstorms, and numerous reports of trees down and other wind
damage things are finally starting to wind down. However, a line
of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms continues to slowly
trek across Wayne, Pike and NE Lackawanna counties over the next
60-90 minutes. These storms are producing prolific cloud to
ground lightning on top of the strong wind gusts and heavy
rainfall...parts of these storms are also starting to move into
Sullivan county NY. These storms will exit the area by midnight
or so. After that it will be a generally quiet night with patchy
fog and partly cloudy skies. Mild and muggy with lows in the
mid-60s to lower 70s.

CAMs show potential for another round of severe weather
associated with a remnant MCV from about 1-2 PM until 8-9 PM
Tuesday...we will continue to monitor the details of this
potential closely in the coming update.


Adjusted pops and QPF with the early evening update. Watch was
expanded eastward to cover the rest of the region given
favorable environment. The watch was also cleared for areas
west of the ongoing line. This line should clear the region by
late evening with a few lingering showers behind it.


A MCV is moving into western New York as of mid-afternoon and
will move east through the region by early evening. Instability
is rather high given the hot and humid airmass in place with
steep low level lapse rates, surface CAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG
and mixed layer CAPE of 1,000-2,000 J/KG. The MCV is also
generating localized shear on the order of 30-40 knots. Given
this environment expectations are for the thunderstorms to
continue to organize into a squall line and advance eastward
with the threat for damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch
remains in effect for most locations near and west of I-81. This
watch maybe locally expanded if conditions warrant later this
evening.

Conditions will clear out for most of the region but low clouds
should linger longer across the NY Thruway region with the MCV a bit
slower to depart that area. Given more in the way of clouds and
still being very muggy, temperatures only look to fall to around 70.
Given light winds overnight some patchy valley fog can not be ruled
out.

Several clusters of showers and thunderstorms tonight to our west
ahead of a cold front overnight make the coverage and location of
additional showers and thunderstorms more uncertain. Confidence is
higher with another hot and humid day with highs into the 90`s again
combined with the higher humidity to get heat index values well
into the 90`s for valley locations in NY with some 100 degree
values in NE PA. The heat advisory continues through Tuesday.

The environment Tuesday afternoon and evening looks unstable
again given the hot and humid conditions. Modest 0-6KM bulk
shear of 30-40 knots is modeled as well and the combination of
all this indicates that thunderstorms may produce gusty to
perhaps damaging winds once again. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should decrease Tuesday night with another muggy
night in store with lows around 70 again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Shortwave trough begins to move into the region on Wednesday
along with a surface cold front. Ahead of the front southwest
flow advects warm air along with plenty of moisture. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front, but main
precipitation is expected to move through with the front
sometime Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
Instability is expected to build in late morning through the
afternoon. Model soundings show modest mid level lapse rates
with favorable shear. SPC has our region in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms with severe potential being mainly over
Catskills region NY and northeast PA. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to push east of the area for Wednesday night. In
terms of temperatures a wide range is expected due to the timing
of the frontal passage. Central NY will climb into the mid 70s
to low 80s, while northeast PA will see temperatures climb into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper
50s to low 60s across the area.

Shortwave trough slides east on Thursday with lingering
moisture remaining over our region. An additional shower or two
is possible as the wave slowly makes an exit. Otherwise
conditions begin to clear with drier conditions returning.
Northwest flow settles in with slightly cooler temperatures as
highs are forecasted to range in the mid 70s to low 80s during
the day with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 PM Update...

Quiet weather is expected during this period as surface high
pressure is in control. Models begin to diverge in terms of
upper level pattern but are in agreeance of a somewhat dry
period. High pressure holds through Saturday with a possible
frontal passage moving through on Sunday. Otherwise Monday looks
to also be rather quiet with high pressure building back in.
Temperatures during this time frame are expected to range in the
low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds over north-central NY will slowly pull east of the
area early this morning, lingering longest at RME where Fuel Alt
to IFR conditions will continue through around dawn. Valley fog
is noted in much of PA and the Delaware Valley, but just light
fog is expected at ELM and AVP through morning.

There remains more uncertainty than usual in the timing of
thunderstorms for Tuesday, but the 18-23Z time frame is most
favored for the region as a whole. Attempted to narrow this down
to 3 hour TEMPO groups and where probability for thunder is
lower, PROB30s. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday Night...Becoming VFR though patchy valley fog is
possible.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015-016-018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MPH