Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
183 FGUS63 KKRF 231439 ESPBGH LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO 1137 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2024 ******************************************************** ********* THESE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ********* ******************************************************** IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP (CS), HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. CS VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS |HEFS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :WIND R AT DUBOIS WY 6NW DUBW4 5.0 5.5 6.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :WIND R ABV RED CR AT DUBOIS WY 12SE WRCW4 9.5 10.0 10.5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT CROWHEART WY 10SE CROW4 10.0 10.5 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT KINNEAR WY 2SW KINW4 9.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 1SE WDRW4 9.0 11.0 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :LITTLE WIND R AT RIVERTON WY 2SE RVTW4 8.0 10.0 11.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIGHORN R AT BASIN WY BHBW4 10.5 11.0 13.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :BIGHORN R AT GREYBULL WY GYBW4 92.0 93.5 95.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :N FK SHOSHONE R AT WAPITI WY 5E NFSW4 8.0 9.0 10.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :S FK SHOSHONE R AT BUFFALO BILL WY ABV BBRW4 9.5 10.5 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 :SHOSHONE R AT LOVELL WY 2W SLOW4 11.0 11.5 12.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 LEGEND HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT) CS = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH .B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF : CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :WIND R DUBW4 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.6/ 2.8/ :WIND R ABV RED CR WRCW4 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ :WIND R CROW4 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.2/ 6.3/ KINW4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.4/ WDRW4 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.2/ 4.3/ :LITTLE WIND R RVTW4 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.2/ :BIGHORN R BHBW4 3.7/ 3.7/ 3.8/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.2/ 4.2/ GYBW4 82.1/ 82.2/ 82.3/ 82.7/ 82.6/ 82.9/ 83.0/ :N FK SHOSHONE R NFSW4 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ :S FK SHOSHONE R BBRW4 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.7/ 4.9/ :SHOSHONE R SLOW4 5.9/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.2/ .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B KRF 0727 Z DH12 /DC2407230437/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH .B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF : CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS : VALID PERIOD = 07/27/2024 - 10/25/2024 : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :WIND R DUBW4 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.4/ :WIND R ABV RED CR WRCW4 2.5/ 2.4/ 2.4/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ :WIND R CROW4 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ KINW4 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ WDRW4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ :LITTLE WIND R RVTW4 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ :BIGHORN R BHBW4 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ GYBW4 81.7/ 81.7/ 81.6/ 81.4/ 81.4/ 81.4/ 81.4/ :N FK SHOSHONE R NFSW4 3.0/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ :S FK SHOSHONE R BBRW4 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ 3.8/ :SHOSHONE R SLOW4 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ .END $$