751
AXNT20 KNHC 160606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 22N southward,
and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 11N between 33W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near Barbados at 55W from 20N
southward into northern Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
northern parts of Suriname and French Guiana.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Gulf of
Honduras southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East
Pacific. It is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen over Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
western Sahara/Mauritania, then meanders southwestward across
11N30W to 12N53W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the trough from 09N to 12N between Guiana coast and 25W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 150 nm south
of the trough west of 48W. There is no ITCZ present based on the
latest analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters
near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough near the west coast of Florida is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits. A surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1017 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to just
north of Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2
ft exist at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist across the northern Gulf
into the weekend, supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly
slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger at
the Straits of Florida through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge near 25N is sustaining a trade-wind regime
across much of the basin. Convergent trades are causing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over southern Hispaniola and
adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted at
the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident at the southwestern and north-central
basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and
lower pressure across Colombia will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds over the central basin into Thu before
diminishing slightly. Scattered thunderstorms will move westward
across the northwestern basin through Tue, behind the northern
portion of a tropical wave that is currently near 86W. Winds will
pulse to fresh tonight in the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low near 25N68W and induced surface trough are
generating widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 29N
between 54W and 67W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin. A large 1025 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 31N49W is
supporting gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6
ft north of 20N between 20W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near
the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and
20W. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 30W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 5
to 7 ft exist. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and
monsoonal westerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas persist from 10N to
22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Light to gentle
southerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High and
associated Atlantic Ridge will persist over the north Atlantic
and central Florida through the weekend. Winds northeast of the
Leeward Islands are forecast to increase to fresh starting late
Wed as the high pressure strengthens some and a tropical wave
moves through tropical Atlantic waters. Scattered thunderstorms
will move westward through the Great Bahama Bank and Straits of
Florida through Tue, behind the northern portion of a tropical
wave that is currently along 86W.

$$

Chan