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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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080 FXUS63 KAPX 180135 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 935 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued threat for more showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight. - Showers linger on Sunday, beautiful summer weather next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Inherited forecast is largely on track with a slow departing upper- level low keeping the weather unsettled through the night. As such, scattered showers will linger across the region into Sunday morning with locally heavy rain possible with some storms. Patchy fog could develop across Northern Michigan with ample moisture available and relatively calm winds expected during the night. However, forecast confidence is lower with this potential because winds are expected to increase through the morning hours, so if winds are not light/calm through the night, it will be harder for fog to develop. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 242 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Lobes of vorticity rotating around upper level low pressure evident on water vapor imagery across northern Michigan will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers into this evening. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible due to a few hundred J/Kg of skinny cape. Severe storms are not anticipated but heavy downpours remain possible due to high precipitable water values (1.5 to 1.75 inches). Activity is then expected to decrease in coverage with most areas only seeing isolated showers overnight. Isolated to perhaps scattered showers linger into Sunday, especially across eastern sections of the forecast area. Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy into Sunday morning with slow clearing from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. Lows tonight in the muggy low and mid 60s. Highs Sunday in the low and mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 242 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Beautiful summer weather conditions return this week as midlevel ridging builds across the Central U.S. Sunny skies with average temperatures can be expected for the next several days: Current midlevel troughing digging through the Upper Great Lakes region will be replaced by longwave upstream ridging, occupying the the central U.S for the entirety of the long term forecast period. This pattern supports surface high pressure along with temperatures around climatological average. A few height disturbances could produce a few pop-up showers/storms towards the end of the week due to typical diurnal heating processes, but rain-free chances for most locations across the CWA can be expected for next several days. No impactful weather is expected through the entirety of the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 759 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Scattered showers are expected to linger across northern Michigan tonight and into Sunday morning. Brief drops in VSBY may be possible with any heavier showers, but mainly VFR VSBYs are anticipated through tonight. Widespread MVFR CIGs are expected to spread across the area over the next several hours, with IFR CIGs also anticipated for parts of the area overnight. CIGs look to gradually rise through the morning hours before eventually scattering out to VFR conditions for most areas by Sunday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NSC SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...DJC