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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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741 FXUS63 KAPX 170418 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1218 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms continue into Saturday night. Locally heavy rain possible. - Pleasant stretch of weather next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1058 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Synopsis: 00z surface analysis shows a 1005m occluded low over Wisconsin...with some semblance of a warm front extending east across central Lower Michigan. Parent upper level low over northern Wisconsin per water vapor imagery...one short wave trough spun across Michigan earlier today and now extends along the St. Mary`s River and into far northern Lake Huron...while a second wave rotates around the southern periphery of the circulation across Wisconsin heading into Lake Michigan. These two waves are driving much of the precipitation coverage over the upper Lakes this evening...with a couple of main bands of rain extending from far eastern Upper into southern Ontario...and a second crossing central/southern Lake Michigan with some scattered convection in between across the forecast area. Moist air mass in place across the Great Lakes with precipitable water values around 1.50 inches...widespread surface dew points in the 60s across Michigan with some lower 70s across Lower Michigan. 00z APX sounding had just over 400J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH...thus the late day convection bubbling up. Forecast Update: Occluded system will very slowly translate east overnight across the upper Lakes...eventually getting into Lower Michigan Saturday morning. Thus rain chances will continue overnight ahead of the approaching upper low...with an uptick in precipitation coverage expected over northern Lower. Weak flow and high ambient moisture will continue the localized heavy rainfall threat...along with areas of fog. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Stacked low, now over nw WI, will make slow progress toward and across central/northern lower MI thru Saturday. Forecast: Southwest sections finally starting to break out into some peeks of sunshine, though shallow stratocu still lingers. Upstream MlCape values are near or in excess of 1500j/kg in WI, but we`re still just starting to destabilize over here, and will not see instability nearly that high. Perhaps 1000j/kg develop into nw lower MI by early evening. Deeper shear is also unimpressive (less than 25kt); we`re too close to the upper low for much in the way of mid- level flow. Perhaps a stronger/ severe storm with gusty winds could push into nw lower MI thru evening (especially to the sw of TVC). But this is an unimpressive threat, and will continue to /not/ message it too aggressively. Showers/embedded storms will become more widespread again tonight, as falling heights with the upper low approaching more then compensating for loss of surface-based instability. Numerous showers return to nw and n central lower MI this evening, and expand into ne lower MI and parts of eastern upper MI overnight. Cell movement will become slower as wind fields weaken, and locally heavy rain will again emerge as the main threat for overnight. Reasonably widespread convection continues Saturday, with the upper low slowly transiting northern MI. Probably just enough surface heating to contribute a hint of instability by afternoon. Winds fields and shear are negligible, and the skinny MlCape of up to 300j/kg will not be enough for severe. But locally heavy rain will persist with slow-moving cells, especially in northern lower MI. Low temps mid 60s. Max temps low-mid 70s, warmest in the eastern UP. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The large area of upper level low pressure centered across northwest Minnesota will drift across northern Michigan during the day Saturday. Moisture/weak lift will linger into Sunday. This is expected to result in mostly cloudy skies and additional showers Saturday night and even Sunday across some areas (mainly along and east of I-75). Drier air then advects into the region Sunday night with increasing ridging in control through much if not all of the work week. This setup should promote nearly ideal conditions with mostly clear skies, low humidity and very comfortable temperatures. No rain will be in the forecast from Monday through Friday (removed any rogue slight chance pops). Highs through the period will slowly warm through the 70s with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Plenty of low level moisture around should lead to IFR/LIFR fog and tonight into Saturday morning...along with periodic showers and some thunderstorms. Showers may be most numerous across northern Lower on Saturday...with IFR/MVFR flight conditions expected. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...JPB