Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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248 FXUS63 KAPX 161045 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms linger into today and this evening. - Isolated/scattered showers and storms Wednesday with cooler weather through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Small chances of showers and storms linger today into this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...The chance of non-severe thunderstorms will linger today into this evening for locations southeast of a line from APN to CAD. Cold front continues to make slow eastward progress thru the Western Great Lakes early this morning...now extending from SE Ontario thru the Straits area into Southern Wisconsin and Eastern Iowa. Broken line of showers and storms continue to fire just ahead of this front...impacting the SE half of our CWA attm. Overall trends have been downward in both areal coverage and intensity as we head toward the typical diurnal instability minimum during the early morning hours. Also...prominent instability axis in advance of the front has dropped south of our CWA. Cold front will continue to slowly push southeast thru Northern Lower Michigan this morning...tending to stall a bit as it reaches the Saginaw Bay area. Meanwhile...rather sharp upper level trough axis will begin to swing into the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon...reaching Upper Michigan and Eastern Wisconsin by 12Z Wednesday. Arrival of cooler air aloft combined with some increase in cyclonic flow ahead of this trough...slowed eastward progress of the surface cold front and the development of lake breeze boundaries off of Lake Huron this afternoon may very well lead to the development of some additional showers/isold thunderstorms for our SE CWA this afternoon/evening. Very limited instability (500 J/kg or less) and lack of vertical wind shear will keep any storms that develop today into this evening sub-severe. High temps this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s across Eastern Upper and NW Lower Michigan to the low 80s near Saginaw Bay. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A trough, originating from Canada, will sweep across the Great Lakes Region for Wednesday. By Thursday, troughing will exit the forecast area Thursday into Friday, as ridging/ pressure rises move into the area. Surface high pressure is still expected to build overhead across the Northern Woods for the second half of the week into next week, promoting less active weather. FORECAST DETAILS: Rain chances will increase as the day goes on Wednesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Precipitation chances will then decrease as we head into Thursday as aforementioned pressure rises build into the region promoting drier weather through the week. Northerly winds will filter in cooler, drier air, making way for cooler daytime temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, especially Thursday night. This looks to drop high temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s through Thursday, with overnight lows dipping well into the 40s across interior areas Thursday night with calm winds and clear skies. Temperatures are then expected to warm back up close to average heading into this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A cold front will continue to slowly push east thru Michigan during the morning hours. Upper level trough axis and secondary cold front will being to swing into the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon into this evening...helping to generate some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly across areas along and south of a line from APN to CAD as lake breeze boundaries develop during the heat of the day. Prevailing conditions will remain mostly VFR/MVFR. Surface winds will become N/NW at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon in the wake of the cold front. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MLR