Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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954 FXUS63 KAPX 162344 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 744 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday - Cool Thursday; warmer Friday through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Pattern Forecast: Unseasonable deep upper level closed low over Canada (north of the northern Plains) will be elongating as it becomes more negatively tilted tonight. It will swing through the Great Lakes region Wednesday, brining cooler air aloft. Although a gradual drying trend will continue, instability (~200-700 J/kg) will find itself over northern MI Wednesday. Chances for isolated to scattered storms over northern MI will begin Wednesday mid morning and linger through the evening hours. Breezy north to northwest winds will also be seen most of Wednesday. Forecast Details: Moderate confidence exists for tomorrows showers and storm chances. CAMs hint more at isolate convection, however with a cool enough upper low scattered convection could very well be seen. Instability is capped fairly low (EL heights just above 500mbs on models soundings), which suggests storms will be able to form but not grow/strengthen for too long. There will be a short window of better instability and shear, however it won`t last long. Drier and cooler air near the surface will continue to seep in through the day. All of this hinders chances for storms to be capable of producing significant hazards. Gusty outflow winds, heavy rain and small hail will all still be possible with storms. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 218 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Pattern Forecast: By Wednesday evening, mid-upper level troughing is expected to be draped from northern Quebec southwestward through the Great Lakes into the central Plains. This wave treks east through Thursday with rebounding heights anticipated late this week into the upcoming weekend. High pressure largely expected to dominate through the late week/weekend time frame. Greater uncertainty exists by the time we get into early next week, especially around diurnally driven shower/storm chances. Forecast Details: Any lingering isolated-scattered showers early Wednesday evening likely to exit stage right Wednesday night. Upstream high pressure expected to be centered near the MN/IA border by Thursday morning before slowly meandering over the western Great Lakes through the upcoming weekend. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through this time frame. Another day with cooler high temps on Thursday generally in the low-mid 70s area-wide before moderating back into the low 80s Friday through early next week. More uncertainty riddles the forecast, especially with respect to PoPs, Sunday through Tuesday. Some longer range signals that shortwave troughing returns to the region with potential for diurnally driven pop-up showers/storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Mostly VFR. A few showers are continuing to evolve over upper MI and northern Lake MI. A stray shower could impact CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL into tonight. Will also be watching for some potential fog late tonight. Otherwise VFR, with another chance for showers on Wednesday. Nw-erly winds will be breezier on Wednesday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ347-348. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...JZ