Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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004 FXUS63 KAPX 181504 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1104 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain-free weather through the end of the work week. - Seasonably warm daytime temperatures this weekend into next week. - Small chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day during this weekend and into next week, especially across eastern upper and northeast lower. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1104 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Synopsis: 12z surface/composite analysis shows a 1025mb surface high over southwest Minnesota...encompassing the Midwest/upper Great Lakes region. Northern Michigan behind a positive tilt upper trough axis...with deep layer northwest flow across Michigan. Mid level thermal trough axis (-16C 500mb temperature off 12z APX sounding) lies northeast-southwest across the state. Horizontal roll convection developing quickly this morning...cool air and warm lakes have "primed" air parcels so initial heating has allowed Cu to pop quickly this morning across northern Lower. Forecast Update: Cu field is expected to thin out some this afternoon with mixing/deepening of the CBL. Comfortable afternoon expected with highs in the lower-mid 70s (5-10 degrees below mid July normals.) && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Perfect mid summer weather today and tonight... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Large area of strong high pressure remains centered upstream over the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning. Low level ridging is becoming well established across the Western Great Lakes region as upstream high pressure begins to nose into our region. All residual convection from last evening has dissipated...leaving mainly clear skies across our entire CWA. High pressure center will drift SE over the next 24 hours...reaching Illinois by 12Z Friday. Ridging...subsidence and dry air thru the column will continue to settle into all of Michigan today and tonight...lending to clear skies and pleasant mid summer temps. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s...with overnight lows cooling back into the low to mid 50s. Enjoy! && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 346 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The next several days will serve as proof of why a majority of the people that live here absolutely and unequivocally love the summers across the north woods. Typical, nearly pristine mid-summer weather conditions are expected across northern Michigan through much if not all of the long term forecast (in contrast to the continued high heat and humidity elsewhere). This will be due to persistent zonal to slightly cyclonic upper level flow. Heating of the day lake breeze aided garden variety showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and early evening but much of the day will likely remain rain free. The best chances for any convective activity will reside across eastern upper and northeast lower as per the normal summer setup. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal averages through the period. Forecast highs generally ranging from near 80 to the low 80s (perhaps even a few mid 80s mixed in) with lows in the mostly comfortable mid 50s to low 60s. Humidity levels should remain fairly comfortable through early next week before becoming a little more muggy as we head toward the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Solid VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today and tonight as strong high pressure and dry air thru the column continue to settle into Michigan. NW winds will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts today and then become light/variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR