451
FXUS63 KAPX 191751
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
151 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond.

- Small chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Saturday
  into next week, especially across eastern upper and northeast
  lower.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Well folks, it doesn`t get much better than this... a true
summertime gem in store for us today! Current forecast remains on
track with surface high pressure more or less parked right above the
Great Lakes, keeping things dry for most (still may get a highly
isolated shower in the eastern Yoop) as high temps warm into
the upper 70s to lower 80s amid light westerly to southwesterly
flow. Please see the Short Term discussion for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and
will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region
into tonight.

Forecast: Low-level cold advection has departed eastward,
replaced with neutral thermal advection into tonight. Surface
obs this early morning have shown a touch of fog at a site or
three (MBL and SJX most commonly). There should be little
hindrance to strong surface heating today, and in general am
expecting less cloud cover overall (especially in northern lower
MI). Cu development is more likely in eastern upper, where a
relatively warm Lake MI will contribute low-level moisture.
Maybe, maybe we can muster 100-200j/kg of SbCape in the interior
of eastern upper this afternoon. A stray shower up there this
afternoon isn`t completely out of the question.

Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across
Superior. An associated band of enhanced moisture will result in
increasing cloud cover overnight in eastern upper MI, especially
Chippewa Co. Limited clouds otherwise.

Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines
cooler. Lows tonight also a bit milder, 50s inland to 60-65
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A general uneventful mid-summer pattern is expected to remain in
place across northern Michigan through much if not all of the long
term. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome")
across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in
place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing
across the Great Lakes. This pattern will likely allow for weak
moisture starved northern stream short waves to move through the
flow from time to time, especially Saturday night and Wednesday. The
combination of the weak waves and possible interactions with
afternoon lake breezes in combination with instability generated
from heating of the day could promote the formation of a few
afternoon and early evening showers and storms. This could occur
pretty much any day through the long term portion of the forecast.
However, some areas will likely receive very little in the way of
rainfall (especially across northwest lower). Highs will mainly
range from the upper 70s to low 80s (even a few isolated mid 80s)
with lows generally ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions largely expected to continue into the overnight hours
as high pressure allows for calming winds. Could be some fog that
develops overnight at MBL as east return flow commences later
tonight. Frontal boundary brings chances of showers after 12Z,
mainly for CIU through 18Z Saturday with CIGs dropping to 5,000ft
and potential for temporary drops in visibility. West flow up to
10kts on Saturday, gusting as high as 15-20kts near PLN by 17Z...
with winds flipping NW at CIU as the front passes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...HAD