Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
198 FXUS63 KAPX 200000 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 800 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower chances return to the picture Saturday, moving from the eastern U.P. into northern lower with time. - Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible at times through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: High pressure currently centered over northwest Ohio will slowly fade south as a weak cold frontal boundary moves through the region. moisture supply will be heavily confined to mesoscale influences... in this case, SW flow over Lake Michigan will draw in dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 across the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt before better and more concentrated moisture area ahead of the front advects southward into the region. Lake breeze convergence set to help contribute to convective initiation across the eastern U.P. spreading south into the far reaches of northern lower by the end of the forecast period. Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower Chances Saturday: Following a dry night tonight with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, shower chances return into the region as a moisture starved frontal boundary moves through. Could be a quick start to shower chances across the eastern U.P. as the front works its way into the Whitefish Bay area. Not expecting any robust or overly organized convection, but coverage probably peaks closer to the straits with better diurnal instability. CAPE values peak somewhere around 500 J/kg, so most of this activity is probably showers with an embedded rumble of thunder or two. Severe weather is not expected, though some briefly gustier winds will be possible during these showers and embedded storms. Expectation is that coverage diminishes as this activity spreads south and east into northern lower later in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 339 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis: A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to pivot across eastern Canada through the end of this weekend as weak troughing lingers over the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley into early next week. With nearly stationary features aloft for several days, a rather nebulous surface pattern looks to materialize through much of the period across a large portion of the country east of the Rockies. Forecast Details: Isolated to scattered showers/storms -- Isolated showers may linger across parts of northern Michigan through Saturday evening as a weak front sags from north to south across the area. With relatively non- descript forcing in place through the first half of the week, additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible across various parts of the area with non-zero buoyancy in place and no major frontal passages anticipated. The most likely trigger for diurnal shower/storm activity will be lake breeze formation providing sufficient forcing to trigger activity -- mainly east of I- 75. Better chances for showers and storms return to the area during the second half of the upcoming week. Otherwise, little change in temperatures is expected through the first half of the week with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 754 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Only concern is the expected development of scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder on Saturday, especially across KCIU and KPLN. Just vicinity wording used for now, with high uncertainty on overall coverage of showers. Otherwise, looking at VFR conditions under passing high clouds and relatively high based cumulus. Light winds through the period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAD LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...MSB