870
FXUS63 KAPX 170134
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
934 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Wednesday

- Cool Thursday; warmer Friday through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Deep cool advection is in place across northern MI. That is
enough to maintain steep-ish lapse rates, supporting a few
showers over upper MI and northern Lake MI. Pops have been
increased/expanded. CAMs suggest a few showers could also get
going into parts of nw lower MI later this evening/early
overnight.

Min temps in the 50s to near 60f.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Pattern Forecast: Unseasonable deep upper level closed low over
Canada (north of the northern Plains) will be elongating as it
becomes more negatively tilted tonight. It will swing through
the Great Lakes region Wednesday, brining cooler air aloft.
Although a gradual drying trend will continue, instability
(~200-700 J/kg) will find itself over northern MI Wednesday.
Chances for isolated to scattered storms over northern MI will
begin Wednesday mid morning and linger through the evening
hours. Breezy north to northwest winds will also be seen most of
Wednesday.

Forecast Details: Moderate confidence exists for tomorrows
showers and storm chances. CAMs hint more at isolate convection,
however with a cool enough upper low scattered convection could
very well be seen. Instability is capped fairly low (EL heights
just above 500mbs on models soundings), which suggests storms
will be able to form but not grow/strengthen for too long. There
will be a short window of better instability and shear, however
it won`t last long. Drier and cooler air near the surface will
continue to seep in through the day. All of this hinders chances
for storms to be capable of producing significant hazards. Gusty
outflow winds, heavy rain and small hail will all still be
possible with storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Pattern Forecast: By Wednesday evening, mid-upper level troughing is
expected to be draped from northern Quebec southwestward through the
Great Lakes into the central Plains. This wave treks east through
Thursday with rebounding heights anticipated late this week into the
upcoming weekend. High pressure largely expected to dominate through
the late week/weekend time frame. Greater uncertainty exists by the
time we get into early next week, especially around diurnally driven
shower/storm chances.

Forecast Details: Any lingering isolated-scattered showers early
Wednesday evening likely to exit stage right Wednesday night.
Upstream high pressure expected to be centered near the MN/IA border
by Thursday morning before slowly meandering over the western Great
Lakes through the upcoming weekend. Little in the way of sensible
weather anticipated through this time frame. Another day with cooler
high temps on Thursday generally in the low-mid 70s area-wide before
moderating back into the low 80s Friday through early next week.

More uncertainty riddles the forecast, especially with respect to
PoPs, Sunday through Tuesday. Some longer range signals that
shortwave troughing returns to the region with potential for
diurnally driven pop-up showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mostly VFR.

A few showers are continuing to evolve over upper MI and
northern Lake MI. A stray shower could impact CIU/PLN/TVC/MBL
into tonight. Will also be watching for some potential fog late
tonight. Otherwise VFR, with another chance for showers on
Wednesday.

Nw-erly winds will be breezier on Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ323-342-344.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ