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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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285 FXUS64 KAMA 170533 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The daily theme of hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances continues today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Hot temperatures are likely with most locations reaching the triple digit mark both today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms will be possible both days and any storms that form could be strong to severe with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. The latest GOES-16 visible satellite shows a field of cumulus developing across eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Further north across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, thunderstorms have begun to develop near a weak boundary that has moved out of Kansas. Thunderstorms today will likely be a bit more widespread compared to the last few days given decent moisture return in the mid levels combined with boundaries and stronger daytime heating. All of this is resulting in MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 and DCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. These parameters may lead to some strong to severe storms with the primary hazard being damaging winds from thunderstorm downbursts. With the DCAPE values as high as they are, isolated wind gusts of 70+ mph are not out of the question. Storm motion will be very slow given weak steering flow aloft, so if storms are able to train along the same location (especially if storms are attached to a boundary) heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding concerns as well. Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be hot with locations across the southeast reaching or exceeding 105 degrees. Upper level high pressure looks to remain just to the west of the forecast area once again on Saturday. Subtle shifts in the high pressure system may result in temperatures not being quite as high for Saturday as previously expected. Temperatures will still be on the hot side, with highs in the upper 90s to potentially 110 in spots, but with the high still off to the west, the higher end of temperatures may not pan out. This only results in temperatures 1 to 3 degrees cooler, but does limit confidence a bit regarding issuance of any heat products outside of the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Enough mid level moisture still looks to be in play to get some isolated storms tomorrow across the southern Texas Panhandle. Any storms that form tomorrow will still have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts given high DCAPE values depicted by forecast soundings. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Above average temperatures will prevail across the Southern High Plains throughout the extended forecast period. Furthermore, at least modest rain chances exist within this timeframe as well, contingent on how much the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and any potential moisture return. A stout mid/upper level ridge persists over the western CONUS, encroaching into the Central Plains throughout next week. This synoptic pattern coupled with H850 temps above 30 degrees Celsius will foster peak temperatures in the upper 90s to just over 100 each day from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Additionally, high temperatures of 105 or higher are possible on a few of these days, with the highest probabilities according to the NBM, being on Sunday for the central and eastern Panhandles. With that being said, heat products will likely be required for the southern and eastern parts of the CWA through the middle of next week. Despite the presence of a strong high pressure system, chances of convection are not out of the question. Eastern CONUS troughing may allow the western CONUS ridge to contract and oscillate westward slightly. A northwest flow regime can therefore become established east of the southern Rockies, allowing for daily thunderstorm chances, particularly across the western CWA. This eastern CONUS trough feature will also permit at least modest moisture return and upslope flow through this duration as modeled by various deterministic guidance including the GFS and ECMWF. Thus, strong to possibly marginally severe storms are possible, especially if a peripheral shortwave can be aptly timed with peak heating/instability. Nonetheless, confidence of the intensity and location of any potential storms is low at this time, but some PoPs are in the forecast during the middle of next week. Muscha/Judd && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 As of late tonight, latest radar was watching the showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Panhandles dissipate, with impacts to the terminals becoming less and less likely for the overnight. Given this, have kept all sights at VFR for the rest of the package, with my only concern being the potential for low cloud decks moving in during the early morning hours for KGUY. However, confidence is not great enough to have included that in current package as many CAMs are looking to dry us out before they could create impacts to the terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 103 73 103 70 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 100 72 105 69 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 99 69 99 65 / 0 10 0 10 Borger TX 107 75 107 72 / 0 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 104 72 104 69 / 10 10 0 0 Canyon TX 102 71 102 68 / 10 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 105 74 104 72 / 10 20 0 0 Dalhart TX 101 68 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 100 70 102 67 / 0 10 0 0 Hereford TX 104 70 103 67 / 0 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 103 75 105 71 / 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 103 73 103 70 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 106 74 105 72 / 10 20 0 0 Wellington TX 107 75 107 73 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...11