832
FXUS64 KAMA 020506
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain present for Wednesday
 and Thursday with each day seeing roughly 20% to 40% chance. Any
 storm could produce very heavy rainfall leading to localized
 flooding.

-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms looks possible for
 the Western Panhandles for the upcoming holiday and cloud see
 increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower 90s.

-More chances for showers and thunderstorms return for the holiday
 weekend as a secondary system pushes in Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Based off latest radar and satellite, showers and thunderstorm
are struggling to develop or move into the Panhandles tonight.
This pattern is likely to continue as latest CAMS as well as 0Z
sounding seeing very weak steering flow present in the upper
atmosphere that is keeping the expect short-waves out. Given this,
have already decrease chances of precipitation for the rest of
the overnight. As we move into Wednesday, models are seeing us run
into a similar problem, with many of them having good moisture to
fuel heavy rainfall, but not enough instability to really get
anything going. The only exception to this may be showers that
develop off the Southern Rockies. However, similar to tonight,
models are not seeing good steering flow that would allow them to
push into the Panhandles, Instead, we may end up with another
cloudy and cool day, especially here in the southern Panhandles.
Regardless, the pattern does start to shift as we move into
Thursday as model agreement sees a new trough push in from the
Western United States and force the present high pressure system
to break down. This process will help us in getting back some of
our upper-level flow for the afternoon, which may be enough to
force showers and thunderstorms into our area, especially once the
trough fully moves in later that evening. At this time main
concerns Thursday would again be focused on the possibility of
heavy to torrential rainfall and flooding, especially if the last
RAP runs come to fruition and the Eastern Panhandles has PWAT
values nearing 1.9 inches. Either way, temperatures should remain
on the cooler side for today and tomorrow, with highs in the upper
70s to 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A slight shift is being seen in the latest model agreement for
Independence Day, with the expect trough Thursday now moving
slower through the area. This slower speed will allow for our more
classical dry line scenario to set up and give chances to see
showers in the Eastern Panhandles for the holiday afternoon. At
this time latest NBM runs have also picked this up and have now
add a 20 to 30% chance for precipitation across the east. The main
threat with this would still be focused on the potential for
heavy to torrential rainfall and flooding, with models still
seeing PWAT values well above 1.5 inches in the east. However, to
the west things may be more stagnate and dry, which could allow
for the afternoon high temperature to once again reach into the
90s. Moving into the weekend will see more chances at activity to
follow with a secondary trough following Saturday into Sunday.
After which, models do attempt to reform the upper-level high
pressure system to potentially dry us out. However, latest runs
have suggest that some short-wave disturbances may also follow to
keep some low chances (10 to 20%) present clear into next
Wednesday. Regardless, temperature do look to warm as we move into
the fist full week of July with afternoon highs staying in the
90s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Cigs at KAMA could drop to MVFR levels around sunrise
tomorrow morning, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF
at this time. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at
5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29