804
FXUS64 KAMA 140537
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Not much excitement to be excited about in the short-term. A
strong upper-level ridge is centered over the central Rockies
leading to the promise of hot temperatures. There is a roughly 5%
chance for a shower or thunderstorm to move into the Oklahoma
Panhandle from Colorado and/or Kansas this evening, but all signs
indicate this activity would be in the process of weakening.
Sunday features even less chance for rain and slightly hotter
temperatures with most of the Panhandles at or above 100 degrees.
Some locations may reach or slightly exceed 105 degrees... heat
advisory criteria... specifically in portions of the northeastern
combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River Valley. Palo Duro
Canyon should stay around 101-103 degrees today and tomorrow due
to an unfavorable wind speed and orientation for heat enhancement.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monday looks like another hot day with widespread 100 degree
temperatures. Again, some locations may reach 105 degrees in the
northeastern combined Panhandles and along the Canadian River
Valley.

Monday night and through Tuesday, Models indicate that the upper-
level ridge may attempt to retrograde as a seasonably robust upper-
level trough dips from central Canada into the Great Lakes. This
would introduce northwesterly flow aloft for much of the Panhandles.

Tuesday: Models agree that a cold front is forecast to move into at
least the northern portion of the CWA Tuesday morning, but that is
where the agreement ends regarding this feature. GFS and ECMWF stall
out the front throughout Tuesday before surging through the rest of
the CWA Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, NAM doesn`t stall the front and
brings it through almost all of the Panhandles by the mid-afternoon.
The difference between the models may be related to the convection
that the NAM has Monday night across Kansas, but the GFS and ECMWF
don`t have; any outflow from these storms may give the front extra
`momentum`. Nonetheless, behind the front will be richer low-level
moisture with dew points in the upper-50s to low-60s.

Tuesday evening and through the night: The GFS and NAM suggest a
shortwave embedded in the flow could help develop thunderstorms on
the Rockies in northern New Mexico and Colorado late Tuesday
afternoon. The thunderstorms that are closer to the stronger forcing
(i.e., Colorado) could grow upscale into an MCS and, depending on
its track, could clip at least the northeastern combined Panhandles.
Meanwhile some of the thunderstorms off the higher terrain in
southern Colorado/northern New Mexico could wander into the
Panhandles from the west and northwest. If the GFS and NAM are
correct with the placement of the shortwave trough, strong to severe
thunderstorms are a possibility given the favorable low-level
moisture, mid-level lapse rates, and wind profile. However, it`s
too early to get into details beyond that.

Wednesday: The upper-level ridge continues to retrograde with the
flow over the Panhandles remaining northwesterly or turning more
north-northwesterly. The latter would not be the most ideal for
having thunderstorms move off the high terrain, but is still
plausible. The better bet would be any convection that can develop
in eastern Colorado/western Kansas in association with an embedded
shortwave trough. The most favored time for thunderstorms would be
Wednesday night.

Confidence decreases in the large-scale pattern decreases further
Thursday and beyond.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will start out of the southwest and then become
more southeasterly towards the end of the TAF period. Wind speeds
will be 10 to 15 kts with gusts over 20 kts at times. Skies will
be mostly clear.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 104  70 104  73 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK             102  66 101  67 /   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                 106  72 106  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             103  70 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  98  67  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               98  71 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                101  65 103  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                 103  67 104  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                99  67 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               103  72 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                  100  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX               100  71 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             101  73 103  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29