598
FXUS64 KAMA 120529
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Looks like the better chance of thunderstorms this afternoon may be
across the northeast CWA possibly stretching back into the south-
central Texas Panhandle along a surface trough/outflow boundary
intersection.  This is probably where the best surface convergence
will set up by late this afternoon.  To the north we also have the
best upper level diffluence.  Later on and overnight we will
probably get some more convection moving in from the mountains of
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.  These storms will have
the lift from a short wave trough moving through the northern and
central plains.  Also, a cold front will be moving southward across
the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle late tonight
which could also provide another source of lift.

The cold front should move to somewhere in the southern Texas
Panhandle and pull up stationary by mid morning on Monday.  This
stationary boundary will likely be a source of lift for afternoon
thunderstorms.  More thunderstorms are expected to move this way
from the mountains in the afternoon with help form an upper level
short wave trough.  We Will have to see how far the mountain
convection can make it into our area.  If we still have low clouds
across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle, then
the air mass may be too stable to help support mountain convection.

High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky depending on where the
front ends up and if the low clouds stick around or not.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Overall, conditions should hold steady on Tuesday, as high
pressure dominates the upper level pattern with drier air
filtering in. This pattern looks to be disrupted Wed-Fri when an
upper level trough dips to the northern Plains. Moisture and
northwest flow could return the region as a result, providing
about a 20-30% chance for showers/storms to take place Wed & Thu
evening/night based on latest model trends. Looking towards the
weekend, moisture content should be diminished but not depleted as
upper level ridging settles back in. Diurnally driven showers and
storms won`t be out of the question, but become increasingly less
likely. Throughout this time frame, expect temperatures to be
remain on the hot side with daytime highs in the 90s to triple
digits.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. The one
possible exception is if some low clouds/fog move into KGUY from
the north with possible outflow boundaries from convective
activity in KS. Confidence is low at this time and have stayed
optimistic in the TAFs. There is also a low end chance of some
shower/thunderstorm activity in and around the OK Panhandle
through the period with low confidence. There may also be a very
slight chance for thunder at KDHT as well after 18Z. KGUY should
have some more easterly to northeasterly winds early on in this
period, while KDHT and KAMA maintain more of a southerly component
around 10 kts or less.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  73  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  91  68  98  72 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              90  64  95  66 /  30  30   0   0
Borger TX                 103  74 104  76 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  72 101  73 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  99  70  98  72 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX              101  73 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  65  97  67 /  10  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  90  66  96  69 /  10  20   0   0
Hereford TX               101  70 100  70 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  72 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  72  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX               101  73 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX             104  74 103  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36