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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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598 FXUS64 KAMA 120529 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1229 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Looks like the better chance of thunderstorms this afternoon may be across the northeast CWA possibly stretching back into the south- central Texas Panhandle along a surface trough/outflow boundary intersection. This is probably where the best surface convergence will set up by late this afternoon. To the north we also have the best upper level diffluence. Later on and overnight we will probably get some more convection moving in from the mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. These storms will have the lift from a short wave trough moving through the northern and central plains. Also, a cold front will be moving southward across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle late tonight which could also provide another source of lift. The cold front should move to somewhere in the southern Texas Panhandle and pull up stationary by mid morning on Monday. This stationary boundary will likely be a source of lift for afternoon thunderstorms. More thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the mountains in the afternoon with help form an upper level short wave trough. We Will have to see how far the mountain convection can make it into our area. If we still have low clouds across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle, then the air mass may be too stable to help support mountain convection. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky depending on where the front ends up and if the low clouds stick around or not. && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Overall, conditions should hold steady on Tuesday, as high pressure dominates the upper level pattern with drier air filtering in. This pattern looks to be disrupted Wed-Fri when an upper level trough dips to the northern Plains. Moisture and northwest flow could return the region as a result, providing about a 20-30% chance for showers/storms to take place Wed & Thu evening/night based on latest model trends. Looking towards the weekend, moisture content should be diminished but not depleted as upper level ridging settles back in. Diurnally driven showers and storms won`t be out of the question, but become increasingly less likely. Throughout this time frame, expect temperatures to be remain on the hot side with daytime highs in the 90s to triple digits. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. The one possible exception is if some low clouds/fog move into KGUY from the north with possible outflow boundaries from convective activity in KS. Confidence is low at this time and have stayed optimistic in the TAFs. There is also a low end chance of some shower/thunderstorm activity in and around the OK Panhandle through the period with low confidence. There may also be a very slight chance for thunder at KDHT as well after 18Z. KGUY should have some more easterly to northeasterly winds early on in this period, while KDHT and KAMA maintain more of a southerly component around 10 kts or less. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 99 73 99 74 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 91 68 98 72 / 10 20 0 0 Boise City OK 90 64 95 66 / 30 30 0 0 Borger TX 103 74 104 76 / 10 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 100 72 101 73 / 10 10 0 0 Canyon TX 99 70 98 72 / 10 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 101 73 100 74 / 10 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 65 97 67 / 10 20 0 0 Guymon OK 90 66 96 69 / 10 20 0 0 Hereford TX 101 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 97 72 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 Pampa TX 98 72 99 72 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 101 73 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 Wellington TX 104 74 103 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...36