402
FXUS64 KAMA 111642 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Broad zonal flow across the region is currently pushing light rain
showers with some embedded thunderstorms across the panhandles
early this morning. As the morning continues this activity will
weaken and move out of the panhandles leaving the mid to later
morning hour with fair weather. The winds today will be on the
gusty side with high pressure building into the region. Today
will see the full effects of the building high pressure with
temperatures going into the low 100s. The warmest areas will even
reach the mid 100s with a Heat Advisory in effect for Palo Duro
Canyon. With such hot conditions the convective temperatures will
be reached which will allow for some afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms to form in the panhandles. Then by the evening the
convection that forms over the high terrain of NM and CO will be
pushed east by the zonal flow passing across the panhandles. Just
like this morning this activity will persist into the early
morning hours of Monday before it either dissipates or moves east
out of the panhandles. Monday will see a weak boundary push into
the northern panhandles which will weaken the high pressure a bit.
This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures for the northern
panhandles while the central to southern panhandles remain hot. As
such 80s to 90s are expected highs in the northern panhandle and
90s to 100s are expected highs in the central to southern
panhandles. While some convection may flair up as early as the
afternoon the most likely time to see rain showers and
thunderstorms will be the evening to overnight hours. This will
essentially be a repeat of the rain showers and thunderstorms that
have been occurring over the past few days.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Tuesday will see the high pressure reoriented enough that drier
air should be pushed across the panhandles. This will lead to
Tuesday being a day of fair weather with little chance for
isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. This period of fair
weather will come to an end by Wednesday afternoon as a trough
pushes into the plains weakening the high pressure. This will
allow for moisture to once again arrive into the panhandles
leading to more rain showers and thunderstorms. The most likely
time of this will be during the overnight hours when a surface
boundary associated with the trough brushes the panhandles. This
moisture will then linger over the panhandles through the rest of
the work week. This will allow for further rain showers and
thunderstorms to form through this time. The weekend should have
the center of the high pressure build over the panhandles leading
to drier conditions. With the high pressure being across the
region through the rest of the week the highs will be consistently
in the 90s to 100s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

There could be some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but
confidence in any one of those affecting a TAF site is low. A cold
front moves through the DHT and GUY TAF sites overnight bringing
low clouds and fog to these two sites. MVFR conditions are
expected at DHT and IFR conditions are expected at GUY. AMA should
remain VFR through this forecast, unless the front moves farther
south than anticipated, then low clouds could affect AMA as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  99  73 100 /  20  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  65  88  65  95 /  20  10  20   0
Boise City OK              64  87  62  93 /  30  20  20  10
Borger TX                  72 101  72 104 /  20  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              69  98  70 101 /  20  10  20   0
Canyon TX                  72  99  70  99 /  20  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               74 100  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 63  92  64  97 /  20  10  20   0
Guymon OK                  64  87  63  95 /  20  10  20   0
Hereford TX                72 101  69 100 /  20  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                70  94  71 100 /  20  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   71  98  71 100 /  30  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                74 101  73 101 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              76 104  73 103 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...15