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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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402 FXUS64 KAMA 111642 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1142 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Broad zonal flow across the region is currently pushing light rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms across the panhandles early this morning. As the morning continues this activity will weaken and move out of the panhandles leaving the mid to later morning hour with fair weather. The winds today will be on the gusty side with high pressure building into the region. Today will see the full effects of the building high pressure with temperatures going into the low 100s. The warmest areas will even reach the mid 100s with a Heat Advisory in effect for Palo Duro Canyon. With such hot conditions the convective temperatures will be reached which will allow for some afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms to form in the panhandles. Then by the evening the convection that forms over the high terrain of NM and CO will be pushed east by the zonal flow passing across the panhandles. Just like this morning this activity will persist into the early morning hours of Monday before it either dissipates or moves east out of the panhandles. Monday will see a weak boundary push into the northern panhandles which will weaken the high pressure a bit. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures for the northern panhandles while the central to southern panhandles remain hot. As such 80s to 90s are expected highs in the northern panhandle and 90s to 100s are expected highs in the central to southern panhandles. While some convection may flair up as early as the afternoon the most likely time to see rain showers and thunderstorms will be the evening to overnight hours. This will essentially be a repeat of the rain showers and thunderstorms that have been occurring over the past few days. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Tuesday will see the high pressure reoriented enough that drier air should be pushed across the panhandles. This will lead to Tuesday being a day of fair weather with little chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms. This period of fair weather will come to an end by Wednesday afternoon as a trough pushes into the plains weakening the high pressure. This will allow for moisture to once again arrive into the panhandles leading to more rain showers and thunderstorms. The most likely time of this will be during the overnight hours when a surface boundary associated with the trough brushes the panhandles. This moisture will then linger over the panhandles through the rest of the work week. This will allow for further rain showers and thunderstorms to form through this time. The weekend should have the center of the high pressure build over the panhandles leading to drier conditions. With the high pressure being across the region through the rest of the week the highs will be consistently in the 90s to 100s. SH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There could be some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence in any one of those affecting a TAF site is low. A cold front moves through the DHT and GUY TAF sites overnight bringing low clouds and fog to these two sites. MVFR conditions are expected at DHT and IFR conditions are expected at GUY. AMA should remain VFR through this forecast, unless the front moves farther south than anticipated, then low clouds could affect AMA as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 99 73 100 / 20 10 10 0 Beaver OK 65 88 65 95 / 20 10 20 0 Boise City OK 64 87 62 93 / 30 20 20 10 Borger TX 72 101 72 104 / 20 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 69 98 70 101 / 20 10 20 0 Canyon TX 72 99 70 99 / 20 10 10 0 Clarendon TX 74 100 71 101 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 92 64 97 / 20 10 20 0 Guymon OK 64 87 63 95 / 20 10 20 0 Hereford TX 72 101 69 100 / 20 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 70 94 71 100 / 20 10 10 0 Pampa TX 71 98 71 100 / 30 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 74 101 73 101 / 20 10 0 0 Wellington TX 76 104 73 103 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...15