Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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418 FXUS64 KAMA 111824 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Looks like the better chance of thunderstorms this afternoon may be across the northeast CWA possibly stretching back into the south- central Texas Panhandle along a surface trough/outflow boundary intersection. This is probably where the best surface convergence will set up by late this afternoon. To the north we also have the best upper level diffluence. Later on and overnight we will probably get some more convection moving in from the mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. These storms will have the lift from a short wave trough moving through the northern and central plains. Also, a cold front will be moving southward across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle late tonight which could also provide another source of lift. The cold front should move to somewhere in the southern Texas Panhandle and pull up stationary by mid morning on Monday. This stationary boundary will likely be a source of lift for afternoon thunderstorms. More thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the mountains in the afternoon with help form an upper level short wave trough. We Will have to see how far the mountain convection can make it into our area. If we still have low clouds across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle, then the air mass may be too stable to help support mountain convection. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky depending on where the front ends up and if the low clouds stick around or not. && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Overall, conditions should hold steady on Tuesday, as high pressure dominates the upper level pattern with drier air filtering in. This pattern looks to be disrupted Wed-Fri when an upper level trough dips to the northern Plains. Moisture and northwest flow could return the region as a result, providing about a 20-30% chance for showers/storms to take place Wed & Thu evening/night based on latest model trends. Looking towards the weekend, moisture content should be diminished but not depleted as upper level ridging settles back in. Diurnally driven showers and storms won`t be out of the question, but become increasingly less likely. Throughout this time frame, expect temperatures to be remain on the hot side with daytime highs in the 90s to triple digits. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There could be some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but confidence in any one of those affecting a TAF site is low. A cold front moves through the DHT and GUY TAF sites overnight bringing low clouds and fog to these two sites. MVFR conditions are expected at DHT and IFR conditions are expected at GUY. AMA should remain VFR through this forecast, unless the front moves farther south than anticipated, then low clouds could affect AMA as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 98 73 100 / 20 20 10 0 Beaver OK 66 89 67 98 / 30 10 20 0 Boise City OK 63 88 63 94 / 30 20 30 10 Borger TX 73 100 74 104 / 20 20 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 70 98 71 101 / 30 20 20 0 Canyon TX 72 98 70 99 / 20 20 10 0 Clarendon TX 74 101 73 101 / 10 20 10 0 Dalhart TX 63 91 65 96 / 30 20 30 0 Guymon OK 64 88 65 96 / 30 10 20 0 Hereford TX 71 100 70 100 / 20 20 10 0 Lipscomb TX 69 94 71 100 / 30 10 10 0 Pampa TX 71 96 71 99 / 30 20 10 0 Shamrock TX 73 100 74 101 / 20 20 10 0 Wellington TX 76 103 74 103 / 10 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...15