001
FXUS64 KAMA 061120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the west
this morning. A weakening trend and overall decrease in coverage
has been noted over the last hour or so and that should continue
to be the case. Even with that being said, have added in low end
mentions of PoPs to the forecast for the next few hours. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday and severe storms
  may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall may lead to
  flash flooding.

- Temperatures will remain around average with highs in the 80s
  and 90s.

- After a break in thunderstorm activity during mid week, storm
  chances will return late this week into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The rinse and repeat pattern of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
and highs in the 80s to 90s will continue through Monday across
the Panhandles. The upper level pattern remains fairly stagnant
during this short term period with the center of a H300 high
pressure system remaining across northern Mexico. This keeps weak
westerly to northwesterly flow aloft over the region and allows
weak shortwave troughs to aid in kicking off convection across the
mountains each afternoon.

For today, highs this afternoon should be able to warm up a bit
more than yesterday as morning cloud cover is currently not
expected to be as widespread and surface dew points should be a
bit drier. A shortwave will move off of the higher terrain of
NM/CO and given plentiful moisture throughout the column, showers
and thunderstorms should once again develop and move
east/southeast. There will be sufficient CAPE that could lead to
robust updrafts but they will likely struggle to sustain
themselves as shear will remain weak given high pressure aloft. If
an updraft can sustain itself for long enough, hail potentially
upwards of quarter to half dollars will be possible. The primary
hazard will continue to be wind gusts upwards of 70 to maybe
isolated 75-80 mph. Additionally, with PWAT values remaining
around the 75 to 90 percentile, heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms that could lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding. The severe threat will decrease after midnight but
shower and thunderstorm activity may continue into Monday morning.

Monday will pretty much be the same as today, with highs perhaps a
few degrees cooler but otherwise the cycle will once again repeat
itself. Thunderstorms should form on the leeside of the mountains
and move east/southeast towards the Plains. The potential for
severe storms on Monday is still there, but does not look to be as
good as the past few days. Even with that being said, cannot rule
out damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and maybe quarter size hail
if CAPE values come in higher and a thunderstorm can sustain its
core. Heavy rainfall will once again be possible as PWAT values
remain on the high end of climatology for early July.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High pressure aloft is forecast to strengthen during the middle of
next week. This will lead to a temporary lull in thunderstorm
activity as overall moisture throughout the column becomes limited
on Wednesday and Thursday. Before that occurs, there may be enough
moisture and subtle lift aloft to generate thunderstorms across
portions of the south and east on Tuesday. With ridging increasing
over the Panhandles and somewhat decreased surface moisture in place
over the region, temperatures should increase during the middle of
this upcoming work week and Thursday is looking to be the hottest
day of this forecast period. The latest NBM probability of
exceedance for 100 degrees or higher does paint at least a 40
percent chance for approximately half of the CWA on Thursday.

A trough will move across the Rockies towards the High Plains late
on Thursday and may kick off some showers and storms with the north
currently favored for any activity on Thursday night. The
aforementioned high pressure system looks to retreat to the west for
the remainder of this forecast period and remain over the far
southwestern CONUS. This pattern will allow moisture to move in
across the southern High Plains once again and daily chances for
thunderstorms should return late this week into next weekend.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Main aviation concern with this TAF issuance will be the potential
for thunderstorms after 00z. KDHT still has the highest confidence
in having thunderstorm impacts so have kept the PROB30 group to
account for that potential. KGUY and KAMA still have the potential
for storms, but confidence is not high enough to mention at this
time. Winds will mainly be light outside of any thunderstorms
today with sustained winds upwards of 10 to perhaps 15 kts.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05