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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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198 FXUS64 KAMA 120742 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery there are two prominent upper level lows, one sitting over the Vancouver/Seattle area, and the other sitting over the Quebec Province. An upper level ridge is located over the Intermountain West where the FA weather is getting much of its influence from. Also there is a more inconspicuous low over ND which is influencing a shortwave in the slight northwest flow over the Central to Northern Great Plains. This shortwave is expected to help send a weak cold front into the OK Panhandle where it is expected to stall out this morning. This frontal boundary, although weak, will make temperatures a bit tricky today as guidance can be off on where exactly it will stall out. But because of the front much of the OK Panhandle is expected to have a light northeast to easterly wind today where the rest of the Texas Panhandle is expected to keep southerly winds with much warmer temperatures. Looking at highs around the lower 90s across the OK Panhandle with upper 90s to lower triple digits across the southern TX Panhandle. This front may also bring in some low clouds maybe even fog to the far northern combined Panhandles this morning for a couple of hours. Confidence is not very high, but will need to monitor due to potential impacts from reduced visibility during the Mon morning commute. The aforementioned low over ND is also expected to send some ripples south today helping to induce some possible convection over the mountains NM and CO with the potential for the northwestern combined Panhandles receiving some thunderstorm activity this afternoon into evening if clouds can clear out in time for the atmosphere to destabilize a bit. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now with upwards of 40 percent for Cimarron County to see some precipitation, and decreasing pops spreading east and south into the area. A modest 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE with a bulk shear around 25 kts will be possible with the potential for a severe storm or two. Mainly for winds but if a supercell can form large hail cannot be ruled out either. Tomorrow, with this front retreating, expecting temperatures to warm across the the northern FA back into at least the mid 90s. Across the south temperatures may get a degree or two higher than what`s expected today. With the upper level ridge shifting east over the Great Plains, the FA is looking like it will be hot and dry with little to no chances for precipitation for Tue. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Under a ridge aloft, Wed is expected to be quite warm once again with upper 90s to lower triple digits. This ridge will however, start to shift east with a shortwave trough trailing in. This will introduce more precipitation chances (20 to 40 PoPs) for the overnight period into Thu morning. The trough will also help cool daytime highs 3 to 5 degrees for Thu afternoon. This cool down is expected to be brief with another ridge building in just in time for the weekend. Sat may be one of the warmest days over the next 7 days. Have stayed with the NBM, which gives Amarillo a a high of 104. PDC will even be flirting with a potential Excessive Heat Warning. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. The one possible exception is if some low clouds/fog move into KGUY from the north with possible outflow boundaries from convective activity in KS. Confidence is low at this time and have stayed optimistic in the TAFs. There is also a low end chance of some shower/thunderstorm activity in and around the OK Panhandle through the period with low confidence. There may also be a very slight chance for thunder at KDHT as well after 18Z. KGUY should have some more easterly to northeasterly winds early on in this period, while KDHT and KAMA maintain more of a southerly component around 10 kts or less. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 99 73 99 74 / 10 10 0 0 Beaver OK 91 68 98 72 / 10 20 0 0 Boise City OK 90 64 95 66 / 30 30 0 0 Borger TX 103 74 104 76 / 10 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 100 72 101 73 / 10 20 0 0 Canyon TX 99 70 98 72 / 10 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 101 73 100 74 / 10 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 94 65 97 67 / 10 30 0 0 Guymon OK 90 66 96 69 / 10 20 0 0 Hereford TX 101 70 100 70 / 10 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 97 72 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 Pampa TX 98 72 99 72 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 101 73 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 Wellington TX 104 74 103 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36