198
FXUS64 KAMA 120742
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery there are two
prominent upper level lows, one sitting over the
Vancouver/Seattle area, and the other sitting over the Quebec
Province. An upper level ridge is located over the Intermountain
West where the FA weather is getting much of its influence from.
Also there is a more inconspicuous low over ND which is
influencing a shortwave in the slight northwest flow over the
Central to Northern Great Plains. This shortwave is expected to
help send a weak cold front into the OK Panhandle where it is
expected to stall out this morning. This frontal boundary,
although weak, will make temperatures a bit tricky today as
guidance can be off on where exactly it will stall out. But
because of the front much of the OK Panhandle is expected to have
a light northeast to easterly wind today where the rest of the
Texas Panhandle is expected to keep southerly winds with much
warmer temperatures. Looking at highs around the lower 90s across
the OK Panhandle with upper 90s to lower triple digits across the
southern TX Panhandle.

This front may also bring in some low clouds maybe even fog to the
far northern combined Panhandles this morning for a couple of
hours. Confidence is not very high, but will need to monitor due
to potential impacts from reduced visibility during the Mon
morning commute. The aforementioned low over ND is also expected
to send some ripples south today helping to induce some possible
convection over the mountains NM and CO with the potential for the
northwestern combined Panhandles receiving some thunderstorm
activity this afternoon into evening if clouds can clear out in
time for the atmosphere to destabilize a bit. Have stayed with NBM
PoPs for now with upwards of 40 percent for Cimarron County to
see some precipitation, and decreasing pops spreading east and
south into the area. A modest 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE with a
bulk shear around 25 kts will be possible with the potential for a
severe storm or two. Mainly for winds but if a supercell can form
large hail cannot be ruled out either.

Tomorrow, with this front retreating, expecting temperatures to
warm across the the northern FA back into at least the mid 90s.
Across the south temperatures may get a degree or two higher than
what`s expected today. With the upper level ridge shifting east
over the Great Plains, the FA is looking like it will be hot and
dry with little to no chances for precipitation for Tue.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Under a ridge aloft, Wed is expected to be quite warm once again
with upper 90s to lower triple digits. This ridge will however,
start to shift east with a shortwave trough trailing in. This will
introduce more precipitation chances (20 to 40 PoPs) for the
overnight period into Thu morning. The trough will also help cool
daytime highs 3 to 5 degrees for Thu afternoon. This cool down is
expected to be brief with another ridge building in just in time
for the weekend. Sat may be one of the warmest days over the next
7 days. Have stayed with the NBM, which gives Amarillo a
a high of 104. PDC will even be flirting with a potential
Excessive Heat Warning.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period. The one
possible exception is if some low clouds/fog move into KGUY from
the north with possible outflow boundaries from convective
activity in KS. Confidence is low at this time and have stayed
optimistic in the TAFs. There is also a low end chance of some
shower/thunderstorm activity in and around the OK Panhandle
through the period with low confidence. There may also be a very
slight chance for thunder at KDHT as well after 18Z. KGUY should
have some more easterly to northeasterly winds early on in this
period, while KDHT and KAMA maintain more of a southerly component
around 10 kts or less.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  73  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  91  68  98  72 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              90  64  95  66 /  30  30   0   0
Borger TX                 103  74 104  76 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             100  72 101  73 /  10  20   0   0
Canyon TX                  99  70  98  72 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX              101  73 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 94  65  97  67 /  10  30   0   0
Guymon OK                  90  66  96  69 /  10  20   0   0
Hereford TX               101  70 100  70 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  72 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  72  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX               101  73 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX             104  74 103  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36