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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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910 FXUS64 KAMA 121648 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery there are two prominent upper level lows, one sitting over the Vancouver/Seattle area, and the other sitting over the Quebec Province. An upper level ridge is located over the Intermountain West where the FA weather is getting much of its influence from. Also there is a more inconspicuous low over ND which is influencing a shortwave in the slight northwest flow over the Central to Northern Great Plains. This shortwave is expected to help send a weak cold front into the OK Panhandle where it is expected to stall out this morning. This frontal boundary, although weak, will make temperatures a bit tricky today as guidance can be off on where exactly it will stall out. But because of the front much of the OK Panhandle is expected to have a light northeast to easterly wind today where the rest of the Texas Panhandle is expected to keep southerly winds with much warmer temperatures. Looking at highs around the lower 90s across the OK Panhandle with upper 90s to lower triple digits across the southern TX Panhandle. This front may also bring in some low clouds maybe even fog to the far northern combined Panhandles this morning for a couple of hours. Confidence is not very high, but will need to monitor due to potential impacts from reduced visibility during the Mon morning commute. The aforementioned low over ND is also expected to send some ripples south today helping to induce some possible convection over the mountains NM and CO with the potential for the northwestern combined Panhandles receiving some thunderstorm activity this afternoon into evening if clouds can clear out in time for the atmosphere to destabilize a bit. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now with upwards of 40 percent for Cimarron County to see some precipitation, and decreasing pops spreading east and south into the area. A modest 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE with a bulk shear around 25 kts will be possible with the potential for a severe storm or two. Mainly for winds but if a supercell can form large hail cannot be ruled out either. Tomorrow, with this front retreating, expecting temperatures to warm across the the northern FA back into at least the mid 90s. Across the south temperatures may get a degree or two higher than what`s expected today. With the upper level ridge shifting east over the Great Plains, the FA is looking like it will be hot and dry with little to no chances for precipitation for Tue. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Under a ridge aloft, Wed is expected to be quite warm once again with upper 90s to lower triple digits. This ridge will however, start to shift east with a shortwave trough trailing in. This will introduce more precipitation chances (20 to 40 PoPs) for the overnight period into Thu morning. The trough will also help cool daytime highs 3 to 5 degrees for Thu afternoon. This cool down is expected to be brief with another ridge building in just in time for the weekend. Sat may be one of the warmest days over the next 7 days. Have stayed with the NBM, which gives Amarillo a a high of 104. PDC will even be flirting with a potential Excessive Heat Warning. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A thunderstorm may try to make a run at the DHT TAF site, so have entered a tempo group there late this afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, skies are expected to remain VFR at all sites except with thunderstorms. Easterly winds at DHT and GUY will slowly come around to a more southerly direction overnight, but speeds will remain around 10 knots or less. Southerly winds at AMA will slow to around 10 knots overnight. Southerly winds will pick up to around 15 knots at all sites by mid morning on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 10 Beaver OK 68 98 72 97 / 20 0 0 10 Boise City OK 64 95 66 93 / 30 0 0 20 Borger TX 74 104 76 103 / 10 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 72 101 73 100 / 20 0 0 10 Canyon TX 70 98 72 99 / 10 0 0 10 Clarendon TX 73 100 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 65 97 67 95 / 30 0 0 10 Guymon OK 66 96 69 94 / 20 0 0 10 Hereford TX 70 100 70 100 / 10 0 0 10 Lipscomb TX 72 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 10 Pampa TX 72 99 72 99 / 10 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 73 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 74 103 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...15