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FXUS64 KAMA 121648 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Based on current GOES-16 water vapor imagery there are two
prominent upper level lows, one sitting over the
Vancouver/Seattle area, and the other sitting over the Quebec
Province. An upper level ridge is located over the Intermountain
West where the FA weather is getting much of its influence from.
Also there is a more inconspicuous low over ND which is
influencing a shortwave in the slight northwest flow over the
Central to Northern Great Plains. This shortwave is expected to
help send a weak cold front into the OK Panhandle where it is
expected to stall out this morning. This frontal boundary,
although weak, will make temperatures a bit tricky today as
guidance can be off on where exactly it will stall out. But
because of the front much of the OK Panhandle is expected to have
a light northeast to easterly wind today where the rest of the
Texas Panhandle is expected to keep southerly winds with much
warmer temperatures. Looking at highs around the lower 90s across
the OK Panhandle with upper 90s to lower triple digits across the
southern TX Panhandle.

This front may also bring in some low clouds maybe even fog to the
far northern combined Panhandles this morning for a couple of
hours. Confidence is not very high, but will need to monitor due
to potential impacts from reduced visibility during the Mon
morning commute. The aforementioned low over ND is also expected
to send some ripples south today helping to induce some possible
convection over the mountains NM and CO with the potential for the
northwestern combined Panhandles receiving some thunderstorm
activity this afternoon into evening if clouds can clear out in
time for the atmosphere to destabilize a bit. Have stayed with NBM
PoPs for now with upwards of 40 percent for Cimarron County to
see some precipitation, and decreasing pops spreading east and
south into the area. A modest 1000 to 2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE with a
bulk shear around 25 kts will be possible with the potential for a
severe storm or two. Mainly for winds but if a supercell can form
large hail cannot be ruled out either.

Tomorrow, with this front retreating, expecting temperatures to
warm across the the northern FA back into at least the mid 90s.
Across the south temperatures may get a degree or two higher than
what`s expected today. With the upper level ridge shifting east
over the Great Plains, the FA is looking like it will be hot and
dry with little to no chances for precipitation for Tue.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Under a ridge aloft, Wed is expected to be quite warm once again
with upper 90s to lower triple digits. This ridge will however,
start to shift east with a shortwave trough trailing in. This will
introduce more precipitation chances (20 to 40 PoPs) for the
overnight period into Thu morning. The trough will also help cool
daytime highs 3 to 5 degrees for Thu afternoon. This cool down is
expected to be brief with another ridge building in just in time
for the weekend. Sat may be one of the warmest days over the next
7 days. Have stayed with the NBM, which gives Amarillo a
a high of 104. PDC will even be flirting with a potential
Excessive Heat Warning.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

A thunderstorm may try to make a run at the DHT TAF site, so have
entered a tempo group there late this afternoon into the evening.
Otherwise, skies are expected to remain VFR at all sites except
with thunderstorms. Easterly winds at DHT and GUY will slowly come
around to a more southerly direction overnight, but speeds will
remain around 10 knots or less. Southerly winds at AMA will slow
to around 10 knots overnight. Southerly winds will pick up to
around 15 knots at all sites by mid morning on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  99  74  99 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  68  98  72  97 /  20   0   0  10
Boise City OK              64  95  66  93 /  30   0   0  20
Borger TX                  74 104  76 103 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              72 101  73 100 /  20   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  70  98  72  99 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               73 100  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65  97  67  95 /  30   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  66  96  69  94 /  20   0   0  10
Hereford TX                70 100  70 100 /  10   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                72 101  75  99 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   72  99  72  99 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                73 101  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              74 103  75 102 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...15