841
FXUS64 KAMA 130520
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Stationary front across the northern Texas Panhandle may provide a
focus for thunderstorms this afternoon.  A 500mb convergence zone
was located just to the south of the CWA.  This area may have a
shower or two that develops within this band.  A shower could
develop close to the southern CWA.  So may throw in a pop in this
area.  The main area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move this way from the mountains of New Mexico.  The northwest seems
favored for the showers and thunderstorms this evening.  The upper
level shear may be just enough to help produce a severe thunderstorm
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.  Storm coverage
should decrease with the setting sun.

Tuesday looks like  a dry day as the center of the upper high moves
a little closer to our area.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The long term period starts off similar to Tuesday with hot and
dry conditions across the area on Wednesday. The main difference
on Wednesday lies in moisture content. The prominent upper ridge
we`ve found ourselves under is slated to slightly subside midweek,
allowing more deep-layer moisture to return to the area. Shower
and storm opportunities still exist for Wednesday night,
especially across the northern Panhandles (20-40% chance).
Thursday could find the northern Panhandles significantly cooler
in the wake of a cold front, as some models such as the NAM and
ECMWF suggest highs may not get out of the 80s. We`ll have to wait
to see just how far south the front goes in order to determine
the full extent of these cooler temperatures. Regardless, triple
digits should be far less prevalent.

Uncertainty of moisture increases after Thursday, but models agree high
pressure returning by the weekend is something we can count on.
Very low (~10%) storm chances could exist any given day, but the
main headlines will focus back on sweltering heat. Sat-Sun keeps
trending hotter amongst most guidance, with temperatures in the
95-105 range appearing likely.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

MVFR CIGs will be possible for KGUY early in this 06Z TAF period.
Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail for whole period at KAMA
and KDHT with KGUY eventually seeing VFR conditions. Winds will be
slightly breezy today compared to yesterday with southwesterly
winds picking up to around 15 kts gusting 25 kts. Skies should
become mostly clear especially after 15Z.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  74  98  70 /   0   0  10  20
Beaver OK                  95  72  97  65 /   0   0  10  40
Boise City OK              95  67  94  62 /   0   0  20  30
Borger TX                 104  76 103  70 /   0   0  10  30
Boys Ranch TX             101  73 100  68 /   0   0  10  30
Canyon TX                  98  71  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
Clarendon TX              101  73 100  73 /   0   0   0  20
Dalhart TX                 96  68  95  62 /   0   0  10  30
Guymon OK                  96  69  94  63 /   0   0  10  40
Hereford TX               100  71 100  68 /   0   0  10  20
Lipscomb TX               102  75  99  69 /   0   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   99  73  99  69 /   0   0  10  30
Shamrock TX               102  74 100  73 /   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX             104  75 102  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36