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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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841 FXUS64 KAMA 130520 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Stationary front across the northern Texas Panhandle may provide a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. A 500mb convergence zone was located just to the south of the CWA. This area may have a shower or two that develops within this band. A shower could develop close to the southern CWA. So may throw in a pop in this area. The main area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the mountains of New Mexico. The northwest seems favored for the showers and thunderstorms this evening. The upper level shear may be just enough to help produce a severe thunderstorm with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Storm coverage should decrease with the setting sun. Tuesday looks like a dry day as the center of the upper high moves a little closer to our area. && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The long term period starts off similar to Tuesday with hot and dry conditions across the area on Wednesday. The main difference on Wednesday lies in moisture content. The prominent upper ridge we`ve found ourselves under is slated to slightly subside midweek, allowing more deep-layer moisture to return to the area. Shower and storm opportunities still exist for Wednesday night, especially across the northern Panhandles (20-40% chance). Thursday could find the northern Panhandles significantly cooler in the wake of a cold front, as some models such as the NAM and ECMWF suggest highs may not get out of the 80s. We`ll have to wait to see just how far south the front goes in order to determine the full extent of these cooler temperatures. Regardless, triple digits should be far less prevalent. Uncertainty of moisture increases after Thursday, but models agree high pressure returning by the weekend is something we can count on. Very low (~10%) storm chances could exist any given day, but the main headlines will focus back on sweltering heat. Sat-Sun keeps trending hotter amongst most guidance, with temperatures in the 95-105 range appearing likely. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 MVFR CIGs will be possible for KGUY early in this 06Z TAF period. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail for whole period at KAMA and KDHT with KGUY eventually seeing VFR conditions. Winds will be slightly breezy today compared to yesterday with southwesterly winds picking up to around 15 kts gusting 25 kts. Skies should become mostly clear especially after 15Z. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 99 74 98 70 / 0 0 10 20 Beaver OK 95 72 97 65 / 0 0 10 40 Boise City OK 95 67 94 62 / 0 0 20 30 Borger TX 104 76 103 70 / 0 0 10 30 Boys Ranch TX 101 73 100 68 / 0 0 10 30 Canyon TX 98 71 98 68 / 0 0 10 20 Clarendon TX 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 20 Dalhart TX 96 68 95 62 / 0 0 10 30 Guymon OK 96 69 94 63 / 0 0 10 40 Hereford TX 100 71 100 68 / 0 0 10 20 Lipscomb TX 102 75 99 69 / 0 0 0 30 Pampa TX 99 73 99 69 / 0 0 10 30 Shamrock TX 102 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 20 Wellington TX 104 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...36