225
FXUS64 KAMA 131117
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
617 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Currently the FA is sitting under a mid to upper level ridge with
storms passing to the north in KS riding this ridge. Some light
showers also remain in the western OK Panhandles as of this
writing. Upstream is a shortwave trough sitting over the PacNW.
Today and tomorrow, the FA will be dominated by this ridge
bringing above normal temperatures and little to no chances until
Wed afternoon when the ridge shifts east and the aforementioned
shortwave trough begins to approach the Great Plains.

This afternoon, a leeside low is progged to develop over SE CO
causing gradient driven winds to pick up into the 15 to 20 kt
range with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Winds will be mostly
southerly and expected to push some of the current surface
moisture seen across the northern Panhandles out and blanketing
the entire FA with Td`s in the 40s. Currently Td`s are in the 60s
across much of the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 90s with some areas off the Caprock seeing lower triple
digits. With the increased south winds today PDC will most likely
stop shy of 105 with a Heat Advisory unlikely needed at this time.
Tomorrow, similar conditions are expected with more of a
southwest than southerly wind.

Late tomorrow afternoon PoPs will slowly increase as H7 theta-e
advection picks up under southwesterly flow aloft. Ten to twenty
PoPs will exist for much of the combined Panhandles during the
afternoon as convective temperatures are potentially reached. CAMs
suggest most of this lift/activity during the afternoon will be
along the leading edge of a surface trough that will divide the NW
from the SE combined Panhandles. Later into the overnight period the
shortwave should help increase lift potential bringing up PoPs
(upwards of 40) during the overnight hours. Deterministic models do
not look quite as wet as they were a day or two ago. However, with
the positive H7 theta-e advection and signs of a low level jet
picking up overnight, have kept the NBM PoPs which give widespread 20
to 40s. Severe thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out Wed
afternoon into the evening hours.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Some lingering showers/thunder could be present in the far
eastern TX Panhandle on Thu afternoon. Once again a nice healthy
ridge is expected to build over the Rockies into Great Plains.
Have stayed with NBM values through the extended which has
Amarillo potentially warming to 104 both Sat and Sun. The far
northern TX Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle will most likely only
reach the upper 90s. Slight chance PoPs are present both Sun
night and Mon night, but this will greatly depend on the
orientation of the H5 high and if some perturbations can ride
across during the overnight hours. Otherwise the extended period
is looking hot and dry.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all three terminals
through the 12Z TAF period. Expect mostly clear skies with south
to southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts. Some gust up to 25 kt may
be possible between 18Z and 00Z Wed.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  74  99  72 /   0   0  10  30
Beaver OK                  98  72  97  65 /   0   0  10  40
Boise City OK              94  67  93  61 /   0  10  20  30
Borger TX                 103  76 103  71 /   0   0  10  30
Boys Ranch TX             100  74 100  68 /   0  10  10  30
Canyon TX                  98  72  98  70 /   0   0  10  20
Clarendon TX              100  73 101  72 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 95  67  96  63 /   0  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  95  69  95  62 /   0   0  10  40
Hereford TX                99  71 100  69 /   0   0  10  20
Lipscomb TX               100  75 100  69 /   0   0  10  40
Pampa TX                   98  73  99  70 /   0   0  10  30
Shamrock TX               100  74 101  73 /   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX             102  74 103  74 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36