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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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225 FXUS64 KAMA 131117 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 617 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Currently the FA is sitting under a mid to upper level ridge with storms passing to the north in KS riding this ridge. Some light showers also remain in the western OK Panhandles as of this writing. Upstream is a shortwave trough sitting over the PacNW. Today and tomorrow, the FA will be dominated by this ridge bringing above normal temperatures and little to no chances until Wed afternoon when the ridge shifts east and the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to approach the Great Plains. This afternoon, a leeside low is progged to develop over SE CO causing gradient driven winds to pick up into the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts up to 25 kts possible. Winds will be mostly southerly and expected to push some of the current surface moisture seen across the northern Panhandles out and blanketing the entire FA with Td`s in the 40s. Currently Td`s are in the 60s across much of the area. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s with some areas off the Caprock seeing lower triple digits. With the increased south winds today PDC will most likely stop shy of 105 with a Heat Advisory unlikely needed at this time. Tomorrow, similar conditions are expected with more of a southwest than southerly wind. Late tomorrow afternoon PoPs will slowly increase as H7 theta-e advection picks up under southwesterly flow aloft. Ten to twenty PoPs will exist for much of the combined Panhandles during the afternoon as convective temperatures are potentially reached. CAMs suggest most of this lift/activity during the afternoon will be along the leading edge of a surface trough that will divide the NW from the SE combined Panhandles. Later into the overnight period the shortwave should help increase lift potential bringing up PoPs (upwards of 40) during the overnight hours. Deterministic models do not look quite as wet as they were a day or two ago. However, with the positive H7 theta-e advection and signs of a low level jet picking up overnight, have kept the NBM PoPs which give widespread 20 to 40s. Severe thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out Wed afternoon into the evening hours. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Some lingering showers/thunder could be present in the far eastern TX Panhandle on Thu afternoon. Once again a nice healthy ridge is expected to build over the Rockies into Great Plains. Have stayed with NBM values through the extended which has Amarillo potentially warming to 104 both Sat and Sun. The far northern TX Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle will most likely only reach the upper 90s. Slight chance PoPs are present both Sun night and Mon night, but this will greatly depend on the orientation of the H5 high and if some perturbations can ride across during the overnight hours. Otherwise the extended period is looking hot and dry. 36 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all three terminals through the 12Z TAF period. Expect mostly clear skies with south to southwest winds around 10 to 15 kts. Some gust up to 25 kt may be possible between 18Z and 00Z Wed. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 74 99 72 / 0 0 10 30 Beaver OK 98 72 97 65 / 0 0 10 40 Boise City OK 94 67 93 61 / 0 10 20 30 Borger TX 103 76 103 71 / 0 0 10 30 Boys Ranch TX 100 74 100 68 / 0 10 10 30 Canyon TX 98 72 98 70 / 0 0 10 20 Clarendon TX 100 73 101 72 / 0 0 10 20 Dalhart TX 95 67 96 63 / 0 10 10 20 Guymon OK 95 69 95 62 / 0 0 10 40 Hereford TX 99 71 100 69 / 0 0 10 20 Lipscomb TX 100 75 100 69 / 0 0 10 40 Pampa TX 98 73 99 70 / 0 0 10 30 Shamrock TX 100 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 20 Wellington TX 102 74 103 74 / 0 0 0 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36