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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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636 FXUS64 KAMA 141133 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 633 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Changes in the upper level dynamics ensue with the movement of the axis of high pressure. Upper level flow consist of the main trough grazing the northern Panhandles and then ejecting eastward by Thursday. By the afternoon hours today, 500 mb vorticity is forecast to increase along a southwest to northeast oriented boundary. This boundary will follow the main jet stream trough, and advance eastward alongside it through the night. Mid level Theta-E profiles favor moisture up to 6 km. At the surface, the pressure gradient will tighten some in the southeast this afternoon, but by the night time hours the gradient will disperse and high pressure will overtake the area by Thursday. Highs today will be similar to the previous few days, only slightly warmer in certain spots. 90 degree highs continue for the northern zones, while the central Texas Panhandle and southward will see highs reach the lower 100`s today. Still, no heat products are anticipated as 850 mb temperatures do not favor areas to meet or exceed 105 for long periods of time. Heat indices will also be a non factor as surface dewpoints across the combined Panhandles should not be high enough to allow heat index values to superimpose on the actual temperature. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to initiate off of the aforementioned boundary this afternoon close to the 3-4 PM hours. A few storm clusters could pulse up to become strong or even severe, but mixed layer instability is not expected to be very high to support several robust updrafts. The best areas to see these potential severe storms will be the northeastern Panhandles, where the best CAPE values may be had. Steep mid level lapse rates (~8 C/km), and modest effective bulk shear (25-30 kts) should permit storms to pulse up quickly and sustained themselves during the day time hours. By nightfall, chances for severe storms subside quickly; however, chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger perhaps for a few more hours. The main upper level trough will help generate a second round of convection for the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, but the position of the trough will seem to disallow for stronger storms to develop in our area. Instead, the stronger source of lift should be placed further north in Kansas. Thursday, the forecast still calls for highs in the 90`s and 100`s across the region. As high pressure settles in, chances for storms greatly decrease across the area and surface winds become much lighter throughout the day compared to today. A rouge thunderstorm or two still may be had in Collingsworth county and surrounding areas, as another boundary sets up to our southeast and will promote thunderstorms by the afternoon hours. The severe thunderstorm potential is very low if any storm can develop in our CWA tomorrow. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Upper level high pressure will build on top of the area and hinder any chances of showers or thunderstorms until next week. By then the stable airmass may shift it`s position enough to allow for some development off of the Rockies to enter into our area during the evening and overnight timeframe. Confidence is still a bit low for this outcome due to the forecasted strength of the center of the 500 mb high, with some long range models suggesting that the high reaches 600 decameters or more. That said... dangerously hot temperature are forecast this weekend as the ridge anchors on top of the area. Mid to upper 100`s are possible across much of the CWA, with the northern zone potentially hanging onto the upper 90`s. This event will last a few days and heat related products are likely for each day. The Palo Duro Canyon will be particularly hot during this time period, so extreme caution is advised for those within the area. Additionally... if the upper level high pressure axis become rooted over the area as it strengthens, this streak of extreme heat could continue into next week. Rangel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 TAFs are VFR for the new 12Z period. Breezy, southwesterly winds may be had at all sites this morning and early afternoon. While they subside at DHT and GUY by the late afternoon, breezy winds should continue at AMA through the evening. Thunderstorms remain possible at the AMA terminal this afternoon and evening. A PROB30 group has been added to address these potential impacts. A couple of thunderstorms still may impact the DHT or GUY terminals this evening; however, forecast confidence is still quite low so no mentions have been made. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 99 70 98 69 / 40 30 0 10 Beaver OK 99 67 93 64 / 30 30 0 10 Boise City OK 94 64 90 62 / 20 30 0 0 Borger TX 103 70 99 69 / 40 30 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 100 68 97 68 / 20 20 0 0 Canyon TX 98 69 97 67 / 30 20 10 10 Clarendon TX 101 71 99 69 / 10 20 20 10 Dalhart TX 96 64 93 63 / 10 20 0 0 Guymon OK 96 64 91 62 / 20 20 0 10 Hereford TX 99 68 100 67 / 20 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 100 70 96 67 / 20 30 10 10 Pampa TX 99 69 97 67 / 30 30 10 10 Shamrock TX 102 73 101 69 / 10 20 20 10 Wellington TX 104 75 103 71 / 0 10 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55