636
FXUS64 KAMA 141133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Changes in the upper level dynamics ensue with the movement of
the axis of high pressure. Upper level flow consist of the main
trough grazing the northern Panhandles and then ejecting eastward
by Thursday. By the afternoon hours today, 500 mb vorticity is
forecast to increase along a southwest to northeast oriented
boundary. This boundary will follow the main jet stream trough,
and advance eastward alongside it through the night. Mid level
Theta-E profiles favor moisture up to 6 km. At the surface, the
pressure gradient will tighten some in the southeast this
afternoon, but by the night time hours the gradient will disperse
and high pressure will overtake the area by Thursday.

Highs today will be similar to the previous few days, only
slightly warmer in certain spots. 90 degree highs continue for the
northern zones, while the central Texas Panhandle and southward
will see highs reach the lower 100`s today. Still, no heat
products are anticipated as 850 mb temperatures do not favor areas
to meet or exceed 105 for long periods of time. Heat indices will
also be a non factor as surface dewpoints across the combined
Panhandles should not be high enough to allow heat index values to
superimpose on the actual temperature.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to initiate off of the
aforementioned boundary this afternoon close to the 3-4 PM hours.
A few storm clusters could pulse up to become strong or even
severe, but mixed layer instability is not expected to be very
high to support several robust updrafts. The best areas to see
these potential severe storms will be the northeastern Panhandles,
where the best CAPE values may be had. Steep mid level lapse
rates (~8 C/km), and modest effective bulk shear (25-30 kts)
should permit storms to pulse up quickly and sustained themselves
during the day time hours. By nightfall, chances for severe storms
subside quickly; however, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will linger perhaps for a few more hours. The main upper level
trough will help generate a second round of convection for the
northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight, but
the position of the trough will seem to disallow for stronger
storms to develop in our area. Instead, the stronger source of
lift should be placed further north in Kansas.

Thursday, the forecast still calls for highs in the 90`s and
100`s across the region. As high pressure settles in, chances for
storms greatly decrease across the area and surface winds become
much lighter throughout the day compared to today. A rouge
thunderstorm or two still may be had in Collingsworth county and
surrounding areas, as another boundary sets up to our southeast
and will promote thunderstorms by the afternoon hours. The severe
thunderstorm potential is very low if any storm can develop in
our CWA tomorrow.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Upper level high pressure will build on top of the area and hinder
any chances of showers or thunderstorms until next week. By then
the stable airmass may shift it`s position enough to allow for
some development off of the Rockies to enter into our area during
the evening and overnight timeframe. Confidence is still a bit
low for this outcome due to the forecasted strength of the center
of the 500 mb high, with some long range models suggesting that
the high reaches 600 decameters or more.

That said... dangerously hot temperature are forecast this
weekend as the ridge anchors on top of the area. Mid to upper
100`s are possible across much of the CWA, with the northern zone
potentially hanging onto the upper 90`s. This event will last a
few days and heat related products are likely for each day. The
Palo Duro Canyon will be particularly hot during this time
period, so extreme caution is advised for those within the area.
Additionally... if the upper level high pressure axis become
rooted over the area as it strengthens, this streak of extreme
heat could continue into next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

TAFs are VFR for the new 12Z period. Breezy, southwesterly winds
may be had at all sites this morning and early afternoon. While
they subside at DHT and GUY by the late afternoon, breezy winds
should continue at AMA through the evening. Thunderstorms remain
possible at the AMA terminal this afternoon and evening. A PROB30
group has been added to address these potential impacts. A couple
of thunderstorms still may impact the DHT or GUY terminals this
evening; however, forecast confidence is still quite low so no
mentions have been made.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  70  98  69 /  40  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  99  67  93  64 /  30  30   0  10
Boise City OK              94  64  90  62 /  20  30   0   0
Borger TX                 103  70  99  69 /  40  30   0  10
Boys Ranch TX             100  68  97  68 /  20  20   0   0
Canyon TX                  98  69  97  67 /  30  20  10  10
Clarendon TX              101  71  99  69 /  10  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 96  64  93  63 /  10  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  96  64  91  62 /  20  20   0  10
Hereford TX                99  68 100  67 /  20  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX               100  70  96  67 /  20  30  10  10
Pampa TX                   99  69  97  67 /  30  30  10  10
Shamrock TX               102  73 101  69 /  10  20  20  10
Wellington TX             104  75 103  71 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55