844
FXUS64 KAMA 132324
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Summer continues in full swing across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles for the short term forecast period. If you do not like
continual triple digit high temperatures, do not read the long
term forecast discussion...it`s a hot one. After warm
temperatures this afternoon, low temperatures tonight will remain
quite mild with lows in the 70s for most locations. Going into
the day tomorrow, we will be watching the potential for some
strong to severe thunderstorms. The sources for thunderstorms will
come from a few location. Across the northwestern combined
Panhandles, a mid level trough will move east into this after
later in the afternoon and evening hours. The basic parameters
across the NW Panhandle of 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear along with
around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE should support multi cell clusters
with some 1" hail and 60 mph wind gust potential, becoming
outflow dominant likely by the late evening hours. Further to the
east, along a line from Canyon to Beaver, a notable H850-700
theta-e gradient will set up, and with orthogonal shear with the
aforementioned H500 trough moving into the NW Panhandles, lift
out ahead will help to potentially develop thunderstorms along
this gradient. Initial multi cell development could also produce
severe criteria wind and hail before coming outflow/cold pool
dominant and move east into the remainder of the eastern
Panhandles tomorrow evening. Not everyone will get rain chances
(30-40% at most). Could see a leftover shower or storm overnight
tomorrow night in the NE Panhandles, but overall coverage should
be rather scant by that time. High temperatures tomorrow will
range from the lower 90s to the 100-103 degree range.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Hot. Very hot. Take your pick. Latest 13/12Z model and numerical
guidance are in general accord of a near 600 decameter centered
in the southern High Plains from this coming weekend into the
remainder of the long term forecast period. Large scale subsidence
under the influence of the mid level high pressure system will
keep the Panhandles dry. But with H850 temperatures advecting into
the Panhandles as high as +34 to +37C on some days, the heat will
really be on. High temperatures in the OK Panhandle will be
around 100 degrees, with many locations in the TX Panhandle well
above 100 degrees, with portions of the far southern TX Panhandle,
including Palo Duro Canyon potentially seeing 105 to 110 degrees
for several days next week. Check back for updates to the forecast
as we go from this coming weekend into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

As of early this evening, latest satellite and radar were
continuing the pack the model trend of keeping storms outside of
the Panhandles with terminals expected to stay VFR. Chances of
low clouds and fog will also be diminished for the overnight as
drier conditions look to hold under poor RH recovery. Otherwise,
present wind gust will likely hold for the next couple hours
before making a return tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  99  71  97 /   0  20  30   0
Beaver OK                  72  97  65  92 /   0  10  40   0
Boise City OK              66  93  62  90 /  10  20  20   0
Borger TX                  76 103  71  99 /   0  20  30   0
Boys Ranch TX              73  99  69  98 /   0  10  30   0
Canyon TX                  72  98  68  98 /   0  20  30  10
Clarendon TX               73 100  72 100 /   0  10  30  10
Dalhart TX                 67  95  63  93 /   0  10  20   0
Guymon OK                  70  95  63  91 /   0  20  40   0
Hereford TX                71  99  69 100 /   0  20  30   0
Lipscomb TX                75 100  69  95 /   0  10  30  10
Pampa TX                   73  98  68  96 /   0  20  40  10
Shamrock TX                73 100  74 101 /   0   0  20  10
Wellington TX              75 103  75 105 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11