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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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773 FXUS64 KAMA 140543 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1243 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Summer continues in full swing across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles for the short term forecast period. If you do not like continual triple digit high temperatures, do not read the long term forecast discussion...it`s a hot one. After warm temperatures this afternoon, low temperatures tonight will remain quite mild with lows in the 70s for most locations. Going into the day tomorrow, we will be watching the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. The sources for thunderstorms will come from a few location. Across the northwestern combined Panhandles, a mid level trough will move east into this after later in the afternoon and evening hours. The basic parameters across the NW Panhandle of 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear along with around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE should support multi cell clusters with some 1" hail and 60 mph wind gust potential, becoming outflow dominant likely by the late evening hours. Further to the east, along a line from Canyon to Beaver, a notable H850-700 theta-e gradient will set up, and with orthogonal shear with the aforementioned H500 trough moving into the NW Panhandles, lift out ahead will help to potentially develop thunderstorms along this gradient. Initial multi cell development could also produce severe criteria wind and hail before coming outflow/cold pool dominant and move east into the remainder of the eastern Panhandles tomorrow evening. Not everyone will get rain chances (30-40% at most). Could see a leftover shower or storm overnight tomorrow night in the NE Panhandles, but overall coverage should be rather scant by that time. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 90s to the 100-103 degree range. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Hot. Very hot. Take your pick. Latest 13/12Z model and numerical guidance are in general accord of a near 600 decameter centered in the southern High Plains from this coming weekend into the remainder of the long term forecast period. Large scale subsidence under the influence of the mid level high pressure system will keep the Panhandles dry. But with H850 temperatures advecting into the Panhandles as high as +34 to +37C on some days, the heat will really be on. High temperatures in the OK Panhandle will be around 100 degrees, with many locations in the TX Panhandle well above 100 degrees, with portions of the far southern TX Panhandle, including Palo Duro Canyon potentially seeing 105 to 110 degrees for several days next week. Check back for updates to the forecast as we go from this coming weekend into early next week. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 TAFs continues as VFR for the new 06Z period. Surface winds should remain generally breezy at AMA through most of the period, while winds should be a bit lighter at the other two sites. Thunderstorms are possible at the AMA and GUY terminals later this afternoon and evening, but due to their likely scattered storm mode, confidence is somewhat limited on where storms may setup and what time impacts could occur at the terminals. Further assessment is needed, and mentions may become necessary by the next TAF issuance. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 99 71 97 69 / 20 30 0 10 Beaver OK 97 65 92 65 / 10 40 0 10 Boise City OK 93 62 90 63 / 20 20 0 0 Borger TX 103 71 99 70 / 20 30 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 99 69 98 68 / 10 30 0 0 Canyon TX 98 68 98 67 / 20 30 10 0 Clarendon TX 100 72 100 69 / 10 30 10 10 Dalhart TX 95 63 93 64 / 10 20 0 0 Guymon OK 95 63 91 62 / 20 40 0 10 Hereford TX 99 69 100 67 / 20 30 0 0 Lipscomb TX 100 69 95 68 / 10 30 10 10 Pampa TX 98 68 96 68 / 20 40 10 10 Shamrock TX 100 74 101 70 / 0 20 10 10 Wellington TX 103 75 105 71 / 0 20 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55