773
FXUS64 KAMA 140543
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Summer continues in full swing across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles for the short term forecast period. If you do not like
continual triple digit high temperatures, do not read the long
term forecast discussion...it`s a hot one. After warm
temperatures this afternoon, low temperatures tonight will remain
quite mild with lows in the 70s for most locations. Going into
the day tomorrow, we will be watching the potential for some
strong to severe thunderstorms. The sources for thunderstorms will
come from a few location. Across the northwestern combined
Panhandles, a mid level trough will move east into this after
later in the afternoon and evening hours. The basic parameters
across the NW Panhandle of 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear along with
around 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE should support multi cell clusters
with some 1" hail and 60 mph wind gust potential, becoming
outflow dominant likely by the late evening hours. Further to the
east, along a line from Canyon to Beaver, a notable H850-700
theta-e gradient will set up, and with orthogonal shear with the
aforementioned H500 trough moving into the NW Panhandles, lift
out ahead will help to potentially develop thunderstorms along
this gradient. Initial multi cell development could also produce
severe criteria wind and hail before coming outflow/cold pool
dominant and move east into the remainder of the eastern
Panhandles tomorrow evening. Not everyone will get rain chances
(30-40% at most). Could see a leftover shower or storm overnight
tomorrow night in the NE Panhandles, but overall coverage should
be rather scant by that time. High temperatures tomorrow will
range from the lower 90s to the 100-103 degree range.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Hot. Very hot. Take your pick. Latest 13/12Z model and numerical
guidance are in general accord of a near 600 decameter centered
in the southern High Plains from this coming weekend into the
remainder of the long term forecast period. Large scale subsidence
under the influence of the mid level high pressure system will
keep the Panhandles dry. But with H850 temperatures advecting into
the Panhandles as high as +34 to +37C on some days, the heat will
really be on. High temperatures in the OK Panhandle will be
around 100 degrees, with many locations in the TX Panhandle well
above 100 degrees, with portions of the far southern TX Panhandle,
including Palo Duro Canyon potentially seeing 105 to 110 degrees
for several days next week. Check back for updates to the forecast
as we go from this coming weekend into early next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

TAFs continues as VFR for the new 06Z period. Surface winds
should remain generally breezy at AMA through most of the period,
while winds should be a bit lighter at the other two sites.
Thunderstorms are possible at the AMA and GUY terminals later this
afternoon and evening, but due to their likely scattered storm
mode, confidence is somewhat limited on where storms may setup and
what time impacts could occur at the terminals. Further assessment
is needed, and mentions may become necessary by the next TAF
issuance.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  71  97  69 /  20  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  97  65  92  65 /  10  40   0  10
Boise City OK              93  62  90  63 /  20  20   0   0
Borger TX                 103  71  99  70 /  20  30   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              99  69  98  68 /  10  30   0   0
Canyon TX                  98  68  98  67 /  20  30  10   0
Clarendon TX              100  72 100  69 /  10  30  10  10
Dalhart TX                 95  63  93  64 /  10  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  95  63  91  62 /  20  40   0  10
Hereford TX                99  69 100  67 /  20  30   0   0
Lipscomb TX               100  69  95  68 /  10  30  10  10
Pampa TX                   98  68  96  68 /  20  40  10  10
Shamrock TX               100  74 101  70 /   0  20  10  10
Wellington TX             103  75 105  71 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55