234
FXUS64 KAMA 102018
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
318 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

High pressure continues to build over the region in the short term
period. The progress is still somewhat slow, so moisture
retention stays in place. However, chances for showers and
thunderstorms these next two days will be quite isolated in
coverage. Meanwhile, temperatures at the surface slowly rise as
we enter the latter half of the week.

Today, thunderstorms have already begun in the Oklahoma Panhandle
and are slowly trudging towards the south. Later today, additional
isolated convection is possible for the western half of the CWA.
This morning`s sounding showed a PWAT value of 0.89 inches, which
is indicative of the available moisture the atmosphere has for
heavier rainfall. Therefore, rain rates are forecast to be on the
higher end today, perhaps between 1-1.5"/hr. Nevertheless, the
coverage will be minimal. So only a very few areas will receive
this kind of rainfall; elsewhere, QPF values are at or near 0. Low
instability and wind shear will disallow storms from pulsing up to
severe limits today. Lightning and heavy rain will be the primary
hazards. This activity should subside after day time heating is
over.

Tomorrow, high temperatures may reach 100 degrees in a few areas
near the Canadian River Valley and in the Palo Duro Canyon. In
other places, mid to upper 90`s are anticipated. In the afternoon,
diurnal heating will instigate another round of thunderstorms
across certain portions of the area. The coverage should stay
isolated and the PoPs may change between zones as new CAM runs
ensue. It will be something to watch as the day approaches. The
activity should still remain non-severe.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across our forecast area Friday through Monday. This suggests dry
weather along with above normal temperatures for all periods of
the long term forecast. Some of the traditional hotter locations,
including the Palo Duro Canyon State Park, may have one or more
days of max temperatures near or slightly above 100 degrees. The
ridge may relax its grip on the southern high plains just a little
on Tuesday such that the far western counties may have a low end
threat on the order of a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon if medium range guidance is to
verify. However, that is several days away and that forecast will
likely change depending on where the upper level ridge is centered
at that time.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

TAFs continue as VFR for the new 18Z period. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of AMA and DHT this
afternoon and evening. None are expected to directly impact the
terminals at this time. However, given how sporadic the activity
may be, if a thunderstorm were to form over any site amendments
will become necessary. Generally light winds are forecast for the
whole duration of the period. Perhaps some light gusts may occur
from the west-southwest this afternoon, between 15-20 kts.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  95  67  95 /  10  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  66  97  66  98 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              61  94  62  95 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  69 101  69 101 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              65  99  68  98 /  10  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  65  94  65  94 /  20  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               67  95  68  95 /  10  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 61  95  62  96 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  62  97  64  99 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                64  96  65  95 /  20  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                68  98  68  99 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   66  96  67  96 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                67  97  66  98 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              69  99  67  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55