118
FXUS64 KAMA 110534
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Some isolated storms have formed across the Panhandles early this
evening. These storms may last a few more hours before we lose
daytime heating and they diminish. These storms may have moderate
rain, small hail, and gusty downburst winds. Updated PoPs based on
latest observational trends over the next few hours. The rest of
the night looks to be very nice, with temperatures dropping into
the 60s and light winds under 10 mph.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

High pressure continues to build over the region in the short term
period. The progress is still somewhat slow, so moisture
retention stays in place. However, chances for showers and
thunderstorms these next two days will be quite isolated in
coverage. Meanwhile, temperatures at the surface slowly rise as
we enter the latter half of the week.

Today, thunderstorms have already begun in the Oklahoma Panhandle
and are slowly trudging towards the south. Later today, additional
isolated convection is possible for the western half of the CWA.
This morning`s sounding showed a PWAT value of 0.89 inches, which
is indicative of the available moisture the atmosphere has for
heavier rainfall. Therefore, rain rates are forecast to be on the
higher end today, perhaps between 1-1.5"/hr. Nevertheless, the
coverage will be minimal. So only a very few areas will receive
this kind of rainfall; elsewhere, QPF values are at or near 0. Low
instability and wind shear will disallow storms from pulsing up to
severe limits today. Lightning and heavy rain will be the primary
hazards. This activity should subside after day time heating is
over.

Tomorrow, high temperatures may reach 100 degrees in a few areas
near the Canadian River Valley and in the Palo Duro Canyon. In
other places, mid to upper 90`s are anticipated. In the afternoon,
diurnal heating will instigate another round of thunderstorms
across certain portions of the area. The coverage should stay
isolated and the PoPs may change between zones as new CAM runs
ensue. It will be something to watch as the day approaches. The
activity should still remain non-severe.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across our forecast area Friday through Monday. This suggests dry
weather along with above normal temperatures for all periods of
the long term forecast. Some of the traditional hotter locations,
including the Palo Duro Canyon State Park, may have one or more
days of max temperatures near or slightly above 100 degrees. The
ridge may relax its grip on the southern high plains just a little
on Tuesday such that the far western counties may have a low end
threat on the order of a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon if medium range guidance is to
verify. However, that is several days away and that forecast will
likely change depending on where the upper level ridge is centered
at that time.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 5-15 kts
under mostly clear skies.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  67  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  97  66  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              94  62  95  66 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                 101  69 101  71 /  10  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              99  68  98  68 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  94  65  94  66 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  68  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 95  62  96  64 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  97  64  99  67 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                96  65  95  66 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                98  68  99  71 /  10  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   96  67  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                97  66  98  69 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              99  67  98  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...29