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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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761 FXUS64 KAMA 141903 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 203 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper-level ridge is stationed over the Northeastern Pacific/far Southwestern US with a few shortwave troughs just off the West Coast, the Plains, and just off the coast of New England. A northeast-southwest oriented surface trough is developing across the Panhandles, almost splitting the CWA in half. There is a weak shortwave trough approaching the Panhandles, but it is expected to weaken and lift northward through the afternoon. Nonetheless, between the combination of hot temperatures and the surface trough, it won`t take much (if any) help from the shortwave to get thunderstorms going. Given that forecast soundings are showing an inverted-V signature, wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazard. MLCAPE is forecast to be around 300-700 J/kg, and with 500mb temperatures around -5C and 10-15 kts effective shear, not excited about any hail potential today as any hail should melt before it reaches the surface. It had been looking like there may be a second round of showers/thunderstorms tonight in the northern combined Panhandles, but that is not looking as favorable. That said, can`t entirely rule it out. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles by the end of the night. Tomorrow, the Southwestern ridge expands eastward as the upper-level troughs progress. The previously mentioned "cold" front stalls out during the day which may present enough surface forcing for a few thunderstorms to develop in the southeastern combined Panhandles. Some gusty winds will be possible with this activity. Otherwise, winds will be weaker compared to today. This may push Palo Duro Canyon close to Heat Advisory criteria based off of temperature alone, but if 60+ degree dew points can stick around, it would push conditions further into Heat Advisory criteria. Will hold off on issuing any products for now as we will have to watch the progress of the front. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper-level ridge will become stationed over the region through this week and potentially into next week, shutting down our chances for rain. Temperatures will warm into the upper-90s to the mid-100s, especially for Palo Duro Canyon where multiple days of Heat Advisories looks possible. Uncertainty in the large-scale pattern increases going into Monday and beyond. The operational GFS and the GEFS mean shift the upper- level ridge southwestward starting Monday which introduces some northwesterly flow aloft, which would be favorable for some chances for rain to return. Meanwhile, the operational ECMWF shifts the ridge westward starting on Tuesday which introduces northerly to northeasterly flow aloft, which would be unfavorable for chances for rain barring an embedded shortwave trough that rounds the ridge. The shift of the ridge will be important for deciding whether there will be much of a chance for rain, but in either case, hot to very hot weather looks to continue through this long-term period. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon in the vicinity of KAMA, but adjustments in timing may be needed. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening at KDHT and KGUY, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 71 98 70 102 / 20 20 10 0 Beaver OK 67 94 66 98 / 30 10 10 0 Boise City OK 64 90 63 96 / 10 10 0 10 Borger TX 71 99 70 104 / 20 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 69 97 68 103 / 10 10 10 0 Canyon TX 70 98 66 101 / 20 20 10 0 Clarendon TX 73 100 70 102 / 20 20 20 0 Dalhart TX 64 92 64 99 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 65 91 63 96 / 20 0 10 0 Hereford TX 69 100 67 102 / 20 20 10 0 Lipscomb TX 70 97 68 100 / 30 10 10 0 Pampa TX 70 97 68 101 / 20 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 73 101 70 102 / 20 20 20 0 Wellington TX 75 103 71 104 / 10 20 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...52