761
FXUS64 KAMA 141903
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
203 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper-level ridge is stationed over the Northeastern Pacific/far
Southwestern US with a few shortwave troughs just off the West
Coast, the Plains, and just off the coast of New England.

A northeast-southwest oriented surface trough is developing across
the Panhandles, almost splitting the CWA in half. There is a weak
shortwave trough approaching the Panhandles, but it is expected to
weaken and lift northward through the afternoon. Nonetheless,
between the combination of hot temperatures and the surface trough,
it won`t take much (if any) help from the shortwave to get
thunderstorms going. Given that forecast soundings are showing an
inverted-V signature, wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
hazard. MLCAPE is forecast to be around 300-700 J/kg, and with 500mb
temperatures around -5C and 10-15 kts effective shear, not excited
about any hail potential today as any hail should melt before it
reaches the surface. It had been looking like there may be a second
round of showers/thunderstorms tonight in the northern combined
Panhandles, but that is not looking as favorable. That said, can`t
entirely rule it out. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into
the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles by the end of the
night.

Tomorrow, the Southwestern ridge expands eastward as the upper-level
troughs progress. The previously mentioned "cold" front stalls out
during the day which may present enough surface forcing for a few
thunderstorms to develop in the southeastern combined Panhandles.
Some gusty winds will be possible with this activity. Otherwise,
winds will be weaker compared to today. This may push Palo Duro
Canyon close to Heat Advisory criteria based off of temperature
alone, but if 60+ degree dew points can stick around, it would push
conditions further into Heat Advisory criteria. Will hold off on
issuing any products for now as we will have to watch the progress
of the front.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper-level ridge will become stationed over the region through
this week and potentially into next week, shutting down our chances
for rain. Temperatures will warm into the upper-90s to the mid-100s,
especially for Palo Duro Canyon where multiple days of Heat
Advisories looks possible.

Uncertainty in the large-scale pattern increases going into Monday
and beyond. The operational GFS and the GEFS mean shift the upper-
level ridge southwestward starting Monday which introduces some
northwesterly flow aloft, which would be favorable for some chances
for rain to return. Meanwhile, the operational ECMWF shifts the
ridge westward starting on Tuesday which introduces northerly to
northeasterly flow aloft, which would be unfavorable for chances for
rain barring an embedded shortwave trough that rounds the ridge. The
shift of the ridge will be important for deciding whether there will
be much of a chance for rain, but in either case, hot to very hot
weather looks to continue through this long-term period.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period.
Thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon in the vicinity of
KAMA, but adjustments in timing may be needed. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this evening at KDHT and KGUY, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  98  70 102 /  20  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  67  94  66  98 /  30  10  10   0
Boise City OK              64  90  63  96 /  10  10   0  10
Borger TX                  71  99  70 104 /  20  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              69  97  68 103 /  10  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  70  98  66 101 /  20  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               73 100  70 102 /  20  20  20   0
Dalhart TX                 64  92  64  99 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  65  91  63  96 /  20   0  10   0
Hereford TX                69 100  67 102 /  20  20  10   0
Lipscomb TX                70  97  68 100 /  30  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   70  97  68 101 /  20  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                73 101  70 102 /  20  20  20   0
Wellington TX              75 103  71 104 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52