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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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927 FXUS64 KAMA 150533 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper-level ridge is stationed over the Northeastern Pacific/far Southwestern US with a few shortwave troughs just off the West Coast, the Plains, and just off the coast of New England. A northeast-southwest oriented surface trough is developing across the Panhandles, almost splitting the CWA in half. There is a weak shortwave trough approaching the Panhandles, but it is expected to weaken and lift northward through the afternoon. Nonetheless, between the combination of hot temperatures and the surface trough, it won`t take much (if any) help from the shortwave to get thunderstorms going. Given that forecast soundings are showing an inverted-V signature, wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary hazard. MLCAPE is forecast to be around 300-700 J/kg, and with 500mb temperatures around -5C and 10-15 kts effective shear, not excited about any hail potential today as any hail should melt before it reaches the surface. It had been looking like there may be a second round of showers/thunderstorms tonight in the northern combined Panhandles, but that is not looking as favorable. That said, can`t entirely rule it out. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles by the end of the night. Tomorrow, the Southwestern ridge expands eastward as the upper-level troughs progress. The previously mentioned "cold" front stalls out during the day which may present enough surface forcing for a few thunderstorms to develop in the southeastern combined Panhandles. Some gusty winds will be possible with this activity. Otherwise, winds will be weaker compared to today. This may push Palo Duro Canyon close to Heat Advisory criteria based off of temperature alone, but if 60+ degree dew points can stick around, it would push conditions further into Heat Advisory criteria. Will hold off on issuing any products for now as we will have to watch the progress of the front. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An upper-level ridge will become stationed over the region through this week and potentially into next week, shutting down our chances for rain. Temperatures will warm into the upper-90s to the mid-100s, especially for Palo Duro Canyon where multiple days of Heat Advisories looks possible. Uncertainty in the large-scale pattern increases going into Monday and beyond. The operational GFS and the GEFS mean shift the upper- level ridge southwestward starting Monday which introduces some northwesterly flow aloft, which would be favorable for some chances for rain to return. Meanwhile, the operational ECMWF shifts the ridge westward starting on Tuesday which introduces northerly to northeasterly flow aloft, which would be unfavorable for chances for rain barring an embedded shortwave trough that rounds the ridge. The shift of the ridge will be important for deciding whether there will be much of a chance for rain, but in either case, hot to very hot weather looks to continue through this long-term period. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 TAFs continue as VFR for the 06Z period. Light surface winds will be had at all sites for the next 24 hours. An outside chance exists for a thunderstorm at the AMA terminal later this evening, but no mentions have been made in this current TAF issuance due to the low confidence. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 70 102 72 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 94 66 98 66 / 10 10 0 10 Boise City OK 90 63 96 65 / 10 0 10 10 Borger TX 99 70 104 73 / 10 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 97 68 103 71 / 10 10 0 10 Canyon TX 98 66 101 70 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 100 70 102 72 / 20 20 0 0 Dalhart TX 92 64 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 91 63 96 65 / 0 10 0 10 Hereford TX 100 67 102 70 / 20 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 97 68 100 71 / 10 10 0 10 Pampa TX 97 68 101 71 / 10 10 0 10 Shamrock TX 101 70 102 71 / 20 20 0 0 Wellington TX 103 71 104 74 / 20 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...55