471
FXUS64 KAMA 052355
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
655 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A Heat Advisory has been issued for the Palo Duro Canyon for this
afternoon. Heat index values expected to reach between 102 and
105 degrees. Use caution when spending prolonged time outdoors.

Thunderstorms may become strong to severe later this afternoon and
evening. Large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall would
be the primary hazards.

Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday with a potential
break Wednesday and Thursday, then return on Friday. Chances are
low for storms to become severe during this time frame, but
chances for isolated flooding remain higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mid to upper level ridging building over AZ/NM today, with the FA
falling under north to northwest flow aloft on the leading edge of
this high pressure. Perturbations in the ridge are expected to
potentially introduce lift to produce showers and thunderstorms
going into this evening, mainly across the northwestern combined
Panhandles. Until then, highs are expected to reach the mid 90s in
the northwestern Panhandles with the upper 80s to the
southeastern TX Panhandles. More surface moisture and lingering
cloud cover to the southeast is most likely what will keep ambient
temperatures much cooler to the SE. Despite the ambient
temperatures being cooler, heat indices will pose a heat risk
with Td`s in the lower to mid 70s. Today, PDC is expected to see
afternoon highs around 95. With southeast surface winds pumping in
the surface moisture and keeping Td`s around 73 in the canyon,
heat indices around 102 to 105 are expected. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for the state park this afternoon.

As far as rain chance this evening, have left the new NBM PoPs of 30
to 40 percent for the northwest third to half of the FA at this
time. Best chances for thunderstorms still remains in the far
western combined Panhandles. Some models are not too excited for
thunderstorms. Especially, as storms reach Moore, and Potter
County they may hit some unfavorable air and start to dissipate.
A marginal risk for severe storms is expected for straight line
wind gusts getting up to 60 mph for any storms that do develop.
The abundant monsoonal moisture may present a torrential rainfall
threat with a potential for nuisance flooding under the stronger
updrafts. Storms are expected to mainly impact the western
combined Panhandles between 7 and 11 PM.

For tomorrow, afternoon temperatures are expected in the upper
80s to lower 90s once again, with Td`s in the lower 60s (west to
lower 70s (east) once again. Areas in the east expected to see
highs in the upper 80s with heat indices in the lower 90s,
continuing the hot and muggy conditions. Also, thunderstorm
chances return during the evening into overnight hours, possibly
lasting well into Mon morning. With the same setup storms are
expected to become quasi-linear and move into the Panhandles from
the west to northwest traveling east to southeast. A severe risk
will once again be present with straightline winds up to 60 mph
the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The combined Panhandles will see up to 40 PoPs on Monday/Monday
night, and up to 20 PoPs on Tuesday/Tuesday night. PWATs during
this time will continue to be upwards of 100 to 130 percent of
normal. Wed into Thu, PWATs fall off below 100 percent and the
NBM remains free from PoPs. Friday, upper level ridging breaks
down a bit with a shortwave trough progged to skirt the FA
bringing some upper level moisture back into the area from the
north. PWATs are progged to raise back to 100 to 140 percent of
normal. This will bring 20 to 30 percent PoPs back to the combined
Panhandles.

During Wed and Thu, Td`s are progged to fall a bit to the upper
50s to mid 60s. This will dry conditions out bit allowing for
afternoon temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s with an
RH falling to around 20 to 40 percent across the area. Some areas
like the Canadian River Valley and PDC may even hit the triple
digits on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions are generally occurring across TAF sites. The site
of concern of getting a thunderstorm this evening would be KDHT
but at the current time most of the storms remain to the north.
Will retain mention of some thunderstorm potential this evening.
Storms should diminish or push south of the region through the
evening and closer to midnight. Winds will shift later tonight and
return to a more southerly direction tomorrow.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...28