927
FXUS64 KAMA 150533
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper-level ridge is stationed over the Northeastern Pacific/far
Southwestern US with a few shortwave troughs just off the West
Coast, the Plains, and just off the coast of New England.

A northeast-southwest oriented surface trough is developing across
the Panhandles, almost splitting the CWA in half. There is a weak
shortwave trough approaching the Panhandles, but it is expected to
weaken and lift northward through the afternoon. Nonetheless,
between the combination of hot temperatures and the surface trough,
it won`t take much (if any) help from the shortwave to get
thunderstorms going. Given that forecast soundings are showing an
inverted-V signature, wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
hazard. MLCAPE is forecast to be around 300-700 J/kg, and with 500mb
temperatures around -5C and 10-15 kts effective shear, not excited
about any hail potential today as any hail should melt before it
reaches the surface. It had been looking like there may be a second
round of showers/thunderstorms tonight in the northern combined
Panhandles, but that is not looking as favorable. That said, can`t
entirely rule it out. A weak "cold" front is forecast to move into
the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles by the end of the
night.

Tomorrow, the Southwestern ridge expands eastward as the upper-level
troughs progress. The previously mentioned "cold" front stalls out
during the day which may present enough surface forcing for a few
thunderstorms to develop in the southeastern combined Panhandles.
Some gusty winds will be possible with this activity. Otherwise,
winds will be weaker compared to today. This may push Palo Duro
Canyon close to Heat Advisory criteria based off of temperature
alone, but if 60+ degree dew points can stick around, it would push
conditions further into Heat Advisory criteria. Will hold off on
issuing any products for now as we will have to watch the progress
of the front.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An upper-level ridge will become stationed over the region through
this week and potentially into next week, shutting down our chances
for rain. Temperatures will warm into the upper-90s to the mid-100s,
especially for Palo Duro Canyon where multiple days of Heat
Advisories looks possible.

Uncertainty in the large-scale pattern increases going into Monday
and beyond. The operational GFS and the GEFS mean shift the upper-
level ridge southwestward starting Monday which introduces some
northwesterly flow aloft, which would be favorable for some chances
for rain to return. Meanwhile, the operational ECMWF shifts the
ridge westward starting on Tuesday which introduces northerly to
northeasterly flow aloft, which would be unfavorable for chances for
rain barring an embedded shortwave trough that rounds the ridge. The
shift of the ridge will be important for deciding whether there will
be much of a chance for rain, but in either case, hot to very hot
weather looks to continue through this long-term period.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

TAFs continue as VFR for the 06Z period. Light surface winds will
be had at all sites for the next 24 hours. An outside chance
exists for a thunderstorm at the AMA terminal later this evening,
but no mentions have been made in this current TAF issuance due
to the low confidence.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  70 102  72 /  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  94  66  98  66 /  10  10   0  10
Boise City OK              90  63  96  65 /  10   0  10  10
Borger TX                  99  70 104  73 /  10  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              97  68 103  71 /  10  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  98  66 101  70 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX              100  70 102  72 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 92  64  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  91  63  96  65 /   0  10   0  10
Hereford TX               100  67 102  70 /  20  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                97  68 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   97  68 101  71 /  10  10   0  10
Shamrock TX               101  70 102  71 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX             103  71 104  74 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55