


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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109 FXUS64 KAMA 072305 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 -Strong to severe thunderstorms tonight and again on Tuesday. -Small break from rain chances mid week will then return with thunderstorm chances Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Latest satellite and water vapor imagery portrays large scale subsidence in the column, along with dry air and/or large cap setting up across the Panhandles in the wake of our thunderstorm activity this morning. In-conjunction with the warm and drier air aloft, latest 18Z RAOB data for AMA shows quite anemic shear to support longevity of storms that attempt to break the cap this afternoon. However, ~1600 J/kg of DCAPE along with mid level moisture and decent mid level lapse rates around 7C/km should support storms that move in from the southern and central Rockies later today. Speaking of which, further to the northwest and west, two areas of lift we are watching closely for rain chances later on. As we have seen over the last several days, the Raton Mesa area is beginning to develop multicell thunderstorms. The second area we are watching is along a more potent trough axis across South Dakota/Wyoming moving to the southeast. Both of these features could bring a cold pool/outflow propagated line of storms into the Panhandles later this evening into the overnight. The northern and western Panhandles will be most favored for convection later on today and tonight. Some storms given the aforementioned parameters could be severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. With storms over the past several days in some locations and with notable PWAT values well over 1", localized flooding will also be possible. This ridge roller pattern will continue into tomorrow, almost a carbon copy of today with storms chances late afternoon into the overnight hours, with some storms strong to severe. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 As thew main center of the H500 high pressure system moves towards the Four Corners region, large scale subsidence from the eastward extent of the high should bring dry conditions to the Panhandles mid week. Subtle H500 waves may graze the far northeastern Panhandles with precip, but chances remain low (<20%) at this time. Widespread storms chances then return on Friday associated with a cold front and then again over the coming weekend with H500 NW flow returning to the region for mountain based convection. High temperatures will be near to slightly above average for the rest of the work week and then slightly below average by the coming weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 VFR conditions are prevailing this evening at all TAF locations. Storms have struggled to develop this afternoon so anticipate that storms moving in from the west will potentially impact KDHT. Beyond that, confidence is low as to if they will impact KAMA or KGUY. Have limited it to an inclusion of prob30 at KDHT and will amend if needed beyond that for other sites. Winds will be out of the south to the southwest for the most part this evening through if any storms impact airports, it will allow winds to become more variable. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...28