![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
162 FXUS64 KAMA 180750 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 250 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 An upper level high will be centered over the Panhandles today. Surface southerly winds will prevail at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts, especially across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle. Highs today should be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. With this in mind, have gone ahead and expanded the Heat Advisory to cover the Canadian River Valley through Roberts, Hutchinson, Potter, and Oldham Counties. Also added Gray and Carson as temperatures may be close to 105 there. Thunderstorms are expected to remain northwest of the CWA through tonight as the high deflects the mountain convection more north and around our CWA. On Monday, a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles. The question is how far will it push through? Some models want to push the front all the way through and some want to hang it up over the northeast CWA. And of course, the ensembles are somewhere in between. The general consensus is that the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle could be a little cooler on Monday, while the southern Texas Panhandle has highs similar to Sunday`s. Again, Monday looks dry at this point, but we will see if the front can kick some showers or storms off. Also, we may have some thunderstorms try to sneak into the Oklahoma Panhandle as the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the west and a northwest flow tries to bring mountain convection this way. && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The center of the upper level high is expected to continue to be displaced just to the west of the Panhandles Tuesday and Wednesday. This may allow weak northwest flow to bring a few thunderstorms toward the Panhandles. At this point it is not certain that any thunderstorms can make it into our area. The upper high moves back over the Panhandles for Thursday and then it starts to break down beyond Thursday. The models do not agree on how fast the high breaks down, but we should expect at least a small uptick in pops beyond Thursday. High temperatures may actually start to "cool" some for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 South and southwest winds are expected to pick up to around 15 knots by late this morning. Winds will then back a little late this afternoon and decrease to around 10 knots early this evening. Skies are expected to remain VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 102 73 102 71 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 105 70 94 67 / 0 0 0 10 Boise City OK 99 67 96 63 / 0 10 0 20 Borger TX 107 73 104 70 / 0 0 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 105 70 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 101 70 101 69 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 105 73 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 100 66 97 64 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 101 68 94 65 / 0 0 0 20 Hereford TX 103 69 103 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 106 73 99 68 / 0 0 0 10 Pampa TX 103 72 101 68 / 0 0 0 10 Shamrock TX 107 74 104 70 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 108 73 107 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-008>015-018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...15