


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
707 FXUS64 KAMA 061738 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday and severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. - Temperatures will remain around average with highs in the 80s and 90s. - After a break in thunderstorm activity during mid week, storm chances will return late this week into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Similar conditions expected today with near average temperatures, but maybe not quite as humid. Also, having 20 to 50 PoPs mainly for the west and north again. Better H7 moisture exist in the far western combined Panhandle into NM. An 18Z balloon release is already showing a very dry surface layer here at Amarillo. Storms moving in from the west may hit this dry air and fall apart just like they did last night. The highest PoPs once again exist after sunset tonight into the late overnight hours, with the potential to last into the early morning hours Monday for the northeastern combined Panhandles as showers and storms move in from KS. Severe storms cannot be ruled out for severe winds exceeding 60 mph and hail potentially up to quarters generally in the late afternoon/early evening. Due to PWATs near average in the atmosphere and the warmer H5 temperatures of summer time, melting hail is likely and may limit the overall potential for hail size to become severe. However, some models suggest bulk shear upwards of 25 to maybe 30 kts, with a little over 1000 J/Kg may give a potential at supercells that could increase the hail potential. Tomorrow, some similarities to today exist. However, a shift in the better moisture axis eastward may put more of the combined Panhandles in play for thunderstorms as they survive further into the eastern FA. PWAT values remain around 100-120% of normal today and tomorrow, leaving the possibility of some localized torrential rainfall in the stronger updrafts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Not much has changed in the forecast for the long term. Still looking at Wed and Thu being the warmest days with a break in PoPs until Thu night with a shortwave trough bringing moisture back into the area from the north. Late evening PoPs of 20 percent return to the area Thu night with widespread 20 to 30 PoPs are in the forecast for Friday night and again Saturday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 KDHT and KGUY will once again favor chances for being impacted by thunder, mainly between 00Z and 08Z Monday. KAMA, likely to stay free form storms as they are expected to fizzle out further east into the central and eastern TX Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with varying winds, depending on outflows and random surface boundary around the area, with speeds upwards of 10 to 15 kts. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36