162
FXUS64 KAMA 180750
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

An upper level high will be centered over the Panhandles today.
Surface southerly winds will prevail at 10 to 20 mph with higher
gusts, especially across the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle
and the northwest Texas Panhandle.  Highs today should be similar or
slightly warmer than yesterday.  With this in mind, have gone ahead
and expanded the Heat Advisory to cover the Canadian River Valley
through Roberts, Hutchinson, Potter, and Oldham Counties.  Also
added Gray and Carson as temperatures may be close to 105 there.
Thunderstorms are expected to remain northwest of the CWA through
tonight as the high deflects the mountain convection more north and
around our CWA.

On Monday, a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles. The
question is how far will it push through?  Some models want to push
the front all the way through and some want to hang it up over the
northeast CWA.  And of course, the ensembles are somewhere in
between.  The general consensus is that the Oklahoma Panhandle and
the northern Texas Panhandle could be a little cooler on Monday,
while the southern Texas Panhandle has highs similar to Sunday`s.
Again, Monday looks dry at this point, but we will see if the front
can kick some showers or storms off. Also, we may have some
thunderstorms try to sneak into the Oklahoma Panhandle as the upper
high shifts ever so slightly to the west and a northwest flow tries
to bring mountain convection this way.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The center of the upper level high is expected to continue to be
displaced just to the west of the Panhandles Tuesday and Wednesday.
This may allow weak northwest flow to bring a few thunderstorms
toward the Panhandles.  At this point it is not certain that any
thunderstorms can make it into our area.

The upper high moves back over the Panhandles for Thursday and then
it starts to break down beyond Thursday.  The models do not agree on
how fast the high breaks down, but we should expect at least a small
uptick in pops beyond Thursday.  High temperatures may actually
start to "cool" some for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

South and southwest winds are expected to pick up to around 15
knots by late this morning. Winds will then back a little late
this afternoon and decrease to around 10 knots early this evening.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               102  73 102  71 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 105  70  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              99  67  96  63 /   0  10   0  20
Borger TX                 107  73 104  70 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX             105  70 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                 101  70 101  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX              105  73 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                100  66  97  64 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                 101  68  94  65 /   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX               103  69 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               106  73  99  68 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                  103  72 101  68 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX               107  74 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             108  73 107  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ005-008>015-018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15