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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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687 FXUS64 KAMA 160851 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 351 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon should be warmer than previous days across the board for most places in the combined Panhandles. The southeastern Texas Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon will see temperatures up to 105 degrees, and perhaps even 109 in the canyon. A Heat Advisory has been issued concerning those areas today. Thunderstorms are again possible later this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered storms are expected across much of the CWA. Storm initiation should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the High Plains. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially in the northeast corner of our CWA. Overall environmental parameters are quite marginal for robust severe storms, but if one could form large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Heights aloft will continue to rise, and a surge of warm air advection, as indicated by our 850 mb temperatures, will promote dangerously hot surface highs across the portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Currently the eastern zones are most favored to see highs above 105 degrees, and additional heat advisories are likely for Saturday. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The upper level ridge should see some form of fluctuation by next week. Models have transitioned to more of a northerly flow regime, but that may not entirely cut off POPs through the period. Attempts at convection are still possible on most days next week, but the northwestern zones will be the most likely areas to receive impacts compared to the rest of the CWA. Therefore, slight chance POPs have been accepted by the NBM and highs for next week will still range between the upper 90`s and 100`s. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the new 06Z TAF period. Mostly light winds will be had at all sites today. Thunderstorms may be possible at all sites later this afternoon and evening, but low confidence in their timing and location has prevented us from making mentions in the TAFs for this period. Additions may be made down the line. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 103 73 103 73 / 10 20 10 10 Beaver OK 101 67 100 68 / 10 10 0 10 Boise City OK 97 65 100 68 / 10 20 0 10 Borger TX 106 73 107 74 / 0 20 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 104 70 105 72 / 10 20 10 10 Canyon TX 102 70 103 70 / 10 10 10 10 Clarendon TX 104 72 105 73 / 10 20 10 10 Dalhart TX 99 65 101 67 / 10 20 0 10 Guymon OK 99 65 100 67 / 10 10 0 10 Hereford TX 103 70 104 69 / 20 10 10 10 Lipscomb TX 103 70 104 72 / 10 20 0 10 Pampa TX 102 72 103 72 / 10 20 10 10 Shamrock TX 103 72 105 73 / 0 20 10 10 Wellington TX 105 74 107 74 / 0 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55