053
FXUS64 KAMA 161147
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the
upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon
should be warmer than previous days across the board for most
places in the combined Panhandles. The southeastern Texas
Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon will see temperatures up to 105
degrees, and perhaps even 109 in the canyon. A Heat Advisory has
been issued concerning those areas today. Thunderstorms are again
possible later this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
storms are expected across much of the CWA. Storm initiation
should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the
High Plains. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out,
especially in the northeast corner of our CWA. Overall
environmental parameters are quite marginal for robust severe
storms, but if one could form large hail and damaging winds will
be the primary hazards.

Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on
top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again
during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Severe storms are not
expected at this time. Heights aloft will continue to rise, and a
surge of warm air advection, as indicated by our 850 mb
temperatures, will promote dangerously hot surface highs across
the portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Currently the
eastern zones are most favored to see highs above 105 degrees, and
additional heat advisories are likely for Saturday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The upper level ridge should see some form of fluctuation by next
week. Models have transitioned to more of a northerly flow
regime, but that may not entirely cut off POPs through the period.
Attempts at convection are still possible on most days next week,
but the northwestern zones will be the most likely areas to
receive impacts compared to the rest of the CWA. Therefore,
slight chance POPs have been accepted by the NBM and highs for
next week will still range between the upper 90`s and 100`s.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the new 12Z period. Thunderstorms
are possible at AMA and GUY this afternoon, and PROB30 groups
have been introduced and both sites to highlight the timeframe
for potential impacts. Surface winds will be generally light at
all sites for the next 24 hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               103  73 103  73 /  10  20  10  10
Beaver OK                 101  67 100  68 /  10  10   0  10
Boise City OK              97  65 100  68 /  10  20   0  10
Borger TX                 106  73 107  74 /   0  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX             104  70 105  72 /  10  20  10  10
Canyon TX                 102  70 103  70 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX              104  72 105  73 /  10  20  10  10
Dalhart TX                 99  65 101  67 /  10  20   0  10
Guymon OK                  99  65 100  67 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX               103  70 104  69 /  20  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX               103  70 104  72 /  10  20   0  10
Pampa TX                  102  72 103  72 /  10  20  10  10
Shamrock TX               103  72 105  73 /   0  20  10  10
Wellington TX             105  74 107  74 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55