902
FXUS64 KAMA 161720
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the
upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon
should be warmer than previous days across the board for most
places in the combined Panhandles. The southeastern Texas
Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon will see temperatures up to 105
degrees, and perhaps even 109 in the canyon. A Heat Advisory has
been issued concerning those areas today. Thunderstorms are again
possible later this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
storms are expected across much of the CWA. Storm initiation
should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the
High Plains. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out,
especially in the northeast corner of our CWA. Overall
environmental parameters are quite marginal for robust severe
storms, but if one could form large hail and damaging winds will
be the primary hazards.

Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on
top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again
during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Severe storms are not
expected at this time. Heights aloft will continue to rise, and a
surge of warm air advection, as indicated by our 850 mb
temperatures, will promote dangerously hot surface highs across
the portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Currently the
eastern zones are most favored to see highs above 105 degrees, and
additional heat advisories are likely for Saturday.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The upper level ridge should see some form of fluctuation by next
week. Models have transitioned to more of a northerly flow
regime, but that may not entirely cut off POPs through the period.
Attempts at convection are still possible on most days next week,
but the northwestern zones will be the most likely areas to
receive impacts compared to the rest of the CWA. Therefore,
slight chance POPs have been accepted by the NBM and highs for
next week will still range between the upper 90`s and 100`s.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Main aviation concern
will be the thunderstorm potential at all sites later this
afternoon through the early evening. Storms could be near or over
each of the terminals so have added VCTS to each site to provide
potential timing. Gusty winds will be possible should a storm be
near a terminal along with a brief reduction in visibility due to
heavy rain. Outside of storm potential, winds should be fairly
light around 10 kts or less with occasional higher gusts.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73 103  73 103 /  20  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  67 100  68 101 /  10   0  10   0
Boise City OK              65 100  67  99 /  20   0  10   0
Borger TX                  73 107  74 107 /  20  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              70 105  72 104 /  20  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  70 103  70 102 /  10  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               72 105  73 104 /  20  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 65 101  67 100 /  20   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  65 100  67  99 /  10   0  10   0
Hereford TX                70 104  69 103 /  10  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                70 104  72 103 /  20   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   72 103  71 102 /  20  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                72 105  73 104 /  20  10  10   0
Wellington TX              74 107  74 107 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05