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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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902 FXUS64 KAMA 161720 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon should be warmer than previous days across the board for most places in the combined Panhandles. The southeastern Texas Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon will see temperatures up to 105 degrees, and perhaps even 109 in the canyon. A Heat Advisory has been issued concerning those areas today. Thunderstorms are again possible later this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered storms are expected across much of the CWA. Storm initiation should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the High Plains. One or two severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially in the northeast corner of our CWA. Overall environmental parameters are quite marginal for robust severe storms, but if one could form large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards. Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Severe storms are not expected at this time. Heights aloft will continue to rise, and a surge of warm air advection, as indicated by our 850 mb temperatures, will promote dangerously hot surface highs across the portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Currently the eastern zones are most favored to see highs above 105 degrees, and additional heat advisories are likely for Saturday. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The upper level ridge should see some form of fluctuation by next week. Models have transitioned to more of a northerly flow regime, but that may not entirely cut off POPs through the period. Attempts at convection are still possible on most days next week, but the northwestern zones will be the most likely areas to receive impacts compared to the rest of the CWA. Therefore, slight chance POPs have been accepted by the NBM and highs for next week will still range between the upper 90`s and 100`s. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Main aviation concern will be the thunderstorm potential at all sites later this afternoon through the early evening. Storms could be near or over each of the terminals so have added VCTS to each site to provide potential timing. Gusty winds will be possible should a storm be near a terminal along with a brief reduction in visibility due to heavy rain. Outside of storm potential, winds should be fairly light around 10 kts or less with occasional higher gusts. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 103 73 103 / 20 10 10 0 Beaver OK 67 100 68 101 / 10 0 10 0 Boise City OK 65 100 67 99 / 20 0 10 0 Borger TX 73 107 74 107 / 20 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 70 105 72 104 / 20 10 10 0 Canyon TX 70 103 70 102 / 10 10 10 0 Clarendon TX 72 105 73 104 / 20 10 10 0 Dalhart TX 65 101 67 100 / 20 0 10 0 Guymon OK 65 100 67 99 / 10 0 10 0 Hereford TX 70 104 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 70 104 72 103 / 20 0 10 0 Pampa TX 72 103 71 102 / 20 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 72 105 73 104 / 20 10 10 0 Wellington TX 74 107 74 107 / 20 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...05