398
FXUS64 KAMA 161939
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
239 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The daily theme of hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances
continues today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Hot temperatures are likely with most locations
reaching the triple digit mark both today and tomorrow.
Thunderstorms will be possible both days and any storms that form
could be strong to severe with the primary hazard being damaging
wind gusts.

The latest GOES-16 visible satellite shows a field of cumulus
developing across eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas
Panhandle. Further north across the western Oklahoma Panhandle,
thunderstorms have begun to develop near a weak boundary that has
moved out of Kansas. Thunderstorms today will likely be a bit more
widespread compared to the last few days given decent moisture
return in the mid levels combined with boundaries and stronger
daytime heating. All of this is resulting in MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 and DCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. These parameters may lead
to some strong to severe storms with the primary hazard being
damaging winds from thunderstorm downbursts. With the DCAPE values
as high as they are, isolated wind gusts of 70+ mph are not out of
the question. Storm motion will be very slow given weak steering
flow aloft, so if storms are able to train along the same
location (especially if storms are attached to a boundary) heavy
rainfall may lead to isolated flooding concerns as well.
Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be hot with locations
across the southeast reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

Upper level high pressure looks to remain just to the west of the
forecast area once again on Saturday. Subtle shifts in the high
pressure system may result in temperatures not being quite as high
for Saturday as previously expected. Temperatures will still be on
the hot side, with highs in the upper 90s to potentially 110 in
spots, but with the high still off to the west, the higher end of
temperatures may not pan out. This only results in temperatures
1 to 3 degrees cooler, but does limit confidence a bit regarding
issuance of any heat products outside of the southeastern Texas
Panhandle. Enough mid level moisture still looks to be in play to
get some isolated storms tomorrow across the southern Texas
Panhandle. Any storms that form tomorrow will still have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts given high DCAPE values
depicted by forecast soundings.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Above average temperatures will prevail across the Southern High
Plains throughout the extended forecast period. Furthermore, at
least modest rain chances exist within this timeframe as
well, contingent on how much the high pressure system retrogrades
to the west and any potential moisture return.

A stout mid/upper level ridge persists over the western CONUS,
encroaching into the Central Plains throughout next week. This
synoptic pattern coupled with H850 temps above 30 degrees Celsius
will foster peak temperatures in the upper 90s to just over 100
each day from Sunday through at least the middle of next week.
Additionally, high temperatures of 105 or higher are possible on a
few of these days, with the highest probabilities according to the
NBM, being on Sunday for the central and eastern Panhandles. With
that being said, heat products will likely be required for the
southern and eastern parts of the CWA through the middle of next
week.

Despite the presence of a strong high pressure system, chances of
convection are not out of the question. Eastern CONUS troughing
may allow the western CONUS ridge to contract and oscillate
westward slightly. A northwest flow regime can therefore become
established east of the southern Rockies, allowing for daily
thunderstorm chances, particularly across the western CWA. This
eastern CONUS trough feature will also permit at least modest
moisture return and upslope flow through this duration as modeled
by various deterministic guidance including the GFS and ECMWF.
Thus, strong to possibly marginally severe storms are possible,
especially if a peripheral shortwave can be aptly timed with peak
heating/instability. Nonetheless, confidence of the intensity and
location of any potential storms is low at this time, but some
PoPs are in the forecast during the middle of next week.

Muscha/Judd

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Main aviation concern
will be the thunderstorm potential at all sites later this
afternoon through the early evening. Storms could be near or over
each of the terminals so have added VCTS to each site to provide
potential timing. Gusty winds will be possible should a storm be
near a terminal along with a brief reduction in visibility due to
heavy rain. Outside of storm potential, winds should be fairly
light around 10 kts or less with occasional higher gusts.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73 103  73 103 /  20  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  66  99  70 103 /  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              64  98  67  99 /  20   0   0   0
Borger TX                  73 107  74 107 /  20  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              70 104  72 104 /  30  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  71 102  70 101 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               73 105  73 104 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65 100  66 100 /  30   0  10   0
Guymon OK                  65  99  67 100 /  10   0  10   0
Hereford TX                70 103  68 103 /  20  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                70 103  71 104 /  20   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   70 102  72 103 /  20  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                73 104  73 105 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              74 106  74 107 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05