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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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398 FXUS64 KAMA 161939 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 239 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The daily theme of hot temperatures and thunderstorm chances continues today and tomorrow for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Hot temperatures are likely with most locations reaching the triple digit mark both today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms will be possible both days and any storms that form could be strong to severe with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. The latest GOES-16 visible satellite shows a field of cumulus developing across eastern New Mexico and the southwestern Texas Panhandle. Further north across the western Oklahoma Panhandle, thunderstorms have begun to develop near a weak boundary that has moved out of Kansas. Thunderstorms today will likely be a bit more widespread compared to the last few days given decent moisture return in the mid levels combined with boundaries and stronger daytime heating. All of this is resulting in MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 and DCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. These parameters may lead to some strong to severe storms with the primary hazard being damaging winds from thunderstorm downbursts. With the DCAPE values as high as they are, isolated wind gusts of 70+ mph are not out of the question. Storm motion will be very slow given weak steering flow aloft, so if storms are able to train along the same location (especially if storms are attached to a boundary) heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding concerns as well. Temperatures this afternoon will continue to be hot with locations across the southeast reaching or exceeding 105 degrees. Upper level high pressure looks to remain just to the west of the forecast area once again on Saturday. Subtle shifts in the high pressure system may result in temperatures not being quite as high for Saturday as previously expected. Temperatures will still be on the hot side, with highs in the upper 90s to potentially 110 in spots, but with the high still off to the west, the higher end of temperatures may not pan out. This only results in temperatures 1 to 3 degrees cooler, but does limit confidence a bit regarding issuance of any heat products outside of the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Enough mid level moisture still looks to be in play to get some isolated storms tomorrow across the southern Texas Panhandle. Any storms that form tomorrow will still have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts given high DCAPE values depicted by forecast soundings. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Above average temperatures will prevail across the Southern High Plains throughout the extended forecast period. Furthermore, at least modest rain chances exist within this timeframe as well, contingent on how much the high pressure system retrogrades to the west and any potential moisture return. A stout mid/upper level ridge persists over the western CONUS, encroaching into the Central Plains throughout next week. This synoptic pattern coupled with H850 temps above 30 degrees Celsius will foster peak temperatures in the upper 90s to just over 100 each day from Sunday through at least the middle of next week. Additionally, high temperatures of 105 or higher are possible on a few of these days, with the highest probabilities according to the NBM, being on Sunday for the central and eastern Panhandles. With that being said, heat products will likely be required for the southern and eastern parts of the CWA through the middle of next week. Despite the presence of a strong high pressure system, chances of convection are not out of the question. Eastern CONUS troughing may allow the western CONUS ridge to contract and oscillate westward slightly. A northwest flow regime can therefore become established east of the southern Rockies, allowing for daily thunderstorm chances, particularly across the western CWA. This eastern CONUS trough feature will also permit at least modest moisture return and upslope flow through this duration as modeled by various deterministic guidance including the GFS and ECMWF. Thus, strong to possibly marginally severe storms are possible, especially if a peripheral shortwave can be aptly timed with peak heating/instability. Nonetheless, confidence of the intensity and location of any potential storms is low at this time, but some PoPs are in the forecast during the middle of next week. Muscha/Judd && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. Main aviation concern will be the thunderstorm potential at all sites later this afternoon through the early evening. Storms could be near or over each of the terminals so have added VCTS to each site to provide potential timing. Gusty winds will be possible should a storm be near a terminal along with a brief reduction in visibility due to heavy rain. Outside of storm potential, winds should be fairly light around 10 kts or less with occasional higher gusts. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 73 103 73 103 / 20 10 10 0 Beaver OK 66 99 70 103 / 20 0 0 0 Boise City OK 64 98 67 99 / 20 0 0 0 Borger TX 73 107 74 107 / 20 10 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 70 104 72 104 / 30 10 10 0 Canyon TX 71 102 70 101 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 73 105 73 104 / 20 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 65 100 66 100 / 30 0 10 0 Guymon OK 65 99 67 100 / 10 0 10 0 Hereford TX 70 103 68 103 / 20 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 70 103 71 104 / 20 0 10 0 Pampa TX 70 102 72 103 / 20 10 10 0 Shamrock TX 73 104 73 105 / 20 10 0 0 Wellington TX 74 106 74 107 / 20 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05