465
FXUS64 KAMA 191118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The southern plains finds itself under the influence of a large
scale trough covering much of eastern CONUS. This trough butts up
against a four corners high that is dominate over much of western
CONUS. This is causing a broad northerly flow across the plains
including the panhandles which will allow a series of short wave
trough to pass across. Under the broad scale trough isolated rain
showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the panhandles early
this morning. This activity should slowly wane through the rest of
the morning ceasing by the late morning hours. Activity will then
pick up again as a potent short wave transiting the flow arrives
late today through Saturday. Ahead of the trough arrival the winds
will become gusty from the south to southwest helping to draw some
additional moisture to the panhandles. Then when the trough
pushes through it will drag a cold front across the panhandles
providing extra lift and instability. These combined should lead
to an active front with rain showers and thunderstorms along and
behind it. Depending on how unstable the panhandles gets from
daytime heating some prefrontal thunderstorms may even form during
the afternoon to evening hours. The main threat from any strong
storm will be damaging winds with a lesser chance for hail. The
timing of the front will be late today through the early morning
hours of Saturday with a sharp shift in the wind to the N
following its passage. A patch of drier air will briefly mix in
from the north leading to the rain showers and thunderstorms
tapering off during this time. For by the late morning to
afternoon hours moisture should be then be pushed in by the
northerly winds leading to renewed rain showers and thunderstorms.
The chance for these storms will be lowest in the central north
panhandles as the dry air will be greatest there and require more
moisture to mix it out. While the dynamics are on the
marginal side a few strong to even severe thunderstorms could form
with the best chances for these being along the cold front.
Temperatures today will be the hottest as the southerly winds will
help to bring warmer air to the panhandles. This will see the
temperatures around average with highs in the 90s. Saturday will
see a small dip in the temperatures following the cold front with
80s and 90s for highs.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The general north/northwest flow regime continues over the area
heading into the new week. However, the upper level high begins
it`s transition back towards the east. Long range models continue
to place our CWA under the ridge eventually, but the process might
be slower than originally anticipated. The latest runs will hold
the upper level trough in the Midwest through the front half of
next week. By the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, models finally
start to show hints of a retreating trough, but there are still
some inconsistencies. Overall, it seems a pattern change is
imminent and we could see less precipitation for the combined
Panhandles day by day, but the process may be slower than
previously forecasted. In the meantime, PoPs continue over the
area and seasonal temperatures can be expected throughout next
week.

A few surface troughs are progged to move through the area by
Sunday, allowing for cooler temperatures to settle in behind these
boundaries alongside increase precipitation chances. Currently,
the highest PoPs still favor the western Panhandles but chances
exist area wide. 80`s and a few lower 90`s can be expected for
highs in the afternoon.

High temperatures should remain below average on Monday, (70`s and
80`s), before warming back up to the lower 90`s for the rest of
the week. Long range 850mb temperatures do show a steady increase
through next week, but nothing that would suggest widespread triple
digits yet. Beyond Sunday, PoPs will not be synoptically driven;
instead, relying on smaller shortwave features, day time heating,
or mountain initiated convection to provide thunderstorm activity
within our CWA. By Wednesday, PoP coverage falls off considerably,
but slight chances are still in effect to cover possible isolated
convection from the evening to overnight time frames. This
northerly flow pattern is forecast to last until the end of the
current extended period.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to occur in the TX
Panhandle early this morning. This round of storms should tapper
down through the rest of the morning. If enough instability
rebuilds then rain showers and thunderstorms may form again in the
afternoon. However, confidence is low in any of these storms
directly impacting any of the terminals with none being reflected
in the current TAFs. Today ahead of a cold front the winds will be
from the south and gusty during the afternoon and evening hours.
A front will then arrive late today to early on Saturday bringing
another round of rain showers and thunderstorms that has a high
chance of impacting all terminals. VFR conditions are mainly
expected but brief dips in visibility to MVFR or even IFR may
occur with the thunderstorms. With the passage of the front the
winds will also shift to the NW and be gusty before finally
weakening during the morning hours of Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  67  93  67 /  10  40  40  30
Beaver OK                  91  64  89  63 /  10  40  10  10
Boise City OK              93  62  88  60 /  20  50  20  10
Borger TX                  99  69  97  68 /  10  40  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  94  66 /  20  60  20  30
Canyon TX                  93  65  93  65 /  10  40  40  40
Clarendon TX               91  67  93  66 /  10  30  40  40
Dalhart TX                 95  62  91  62 /  20  50  20  20
Guymon OK                  94  63  89  61 /  10  50  10  10
Hereford TX                95  66  94  65 /  10  40  40  40
Lipscomb TX                91  66  91  65 /  20  40  30  30
Pampa TX                   91  66  91  65 /  10  40  40  30
Shamrock TX                91  67  93  65 /  10  30  50  40
Wellington TX              93  68  96  66 /  10  30  50  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98