![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
878 FXUS64 KAMA 172331 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast models show negative 700mb theta- e advection moving in from southern Kansas and western Oklahoma through this afternoon into the Panhandles. Given that, and the lack of a significant forcing mechanism this afternoon, thinking that the NBM`s PoPs are far too high. Have lowered PoPs in the eastern half of the combined Panhandles to less than 10%. Meanwhile, convection has already begun to develop along the Rockies and should move east or east-southeasterly through this afternoon. This evening, flow aloft turns more northerly which will favor more of a southeasterly storm motion. This may cause any convection that moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the Panhandles. However, have left PoPs in for the western combined Panhandles in case storms can make it into the area. If so, there is a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm. Models show MLCAPE as high as 500-1500 J/kg with modest but sufficient shear for storm organization. Winds up to 60 mph would be possible along with small hail. Again, though, there is merely a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm which is also conditional upon thunderstorms making it into the western combined Panhandles. PoPs tonight, and especially after Midnight, were again too high given the lack of a significant forcing mechanism and continued negative 700mb theta-e advection. Thursday, flow aloft again starts northwesterly but turns northerly in the afternoon. This would keep any convection that develops on the higher terrain out of the CWA. Forcing will be very weak, but it`s not out of the realm of possibilities that flow aloft may become diffluent enough to force some thunderstorms north of the Panhandles or in the northern combined Panhandles. However, confidence is very low. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The main monsoon pattern with the main H500 high centered within the Four Corners Region will dictate the weather pattern throughout the long term forecast period. Going through the coming weekend into early next week, as the main UL sinusoidal synoptic patter becomes quite exaggerated across the central CONUS, in-conjunction with H500 high to the west, a deep positivity tilted and/or cut off low over the mid Mississippi River valley will aid the H500 north and northwesterly flow. This will aid showers and thunderstorm chances for all of the Panhandles, especially late this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be at or slightly below average throughout the long term forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 As of this early evening, latest radar and satellite imagery was seeing storms develop to our west in New Mexico with motion pushing them closer to our area. However, radar is also showing that these storms are not keeping maintained and may not make far into the Panhandles. Given the low confidence, have chosen to keep mention of storms out of current package. Otherwise, VFR conditions do look to hold through the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 89 66 92 / 20 10 20 10 Beaver OK 63 88 63 92 / 10 10 20 10 Boise City OK 62 87 61 92 / 40 30 10 20 Borger TX 68 94 68 97 / 10 10 20 10 Boys Ranch TX 66 91 66 95 / 30 20 20 10 Canyon TX 64 88 64 91 / 20 10 20 20 Clarendon TX 65 88 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 Dalhart TX 63 88 62 93 / 40 30 20 10 Guymon OK 63 88 62 93 / 10 20 20 10 Hereford TX 64 89 66 93 / 40 20 20 20 Lipscomb TX 65 88 65 92 / 10 10 10 10 Pampa TX 64 88 64 91 / 10 10 10 10 Shamrock TX 65 90 65 92 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 66 92 65 93 / 10 10 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...11