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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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629 FXUS64 KAMA 201913 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Real time observations are key this afternoon, in the wake of morning convection and multiple boundaries. After getting thoroughly worked over by storms last night into the morning hours, convective development may be hard to come by this afternoon, as many hi-res CAMs have come to suggest. However, visible satellite as of 18z shows a cumulus field developing along an outflow boundary stretching across the central Texas Panhandle. This could be a sign of attempts at convection, but as most 12z models have depicted today, the vast majority of afternoon storms should stay south of the Panhandles into Lubbock`s CWA, where a few storms have already popped up. Best lift is currently over the SE TX Panhandle, where a better cumulus field and instability also exists. But in general, don`t expect too much to happen this afternoon except for about a 15-25% chance of a generic thunderstorm or two. The better opportunity for any rain will have to wait until later this evening, when a minor shortwave passes within the upper level flow. The bulk of activity favors our western stack of counties due to closer proximity to the disturbance, along with the better moisture pooled up against the Rockies. 20-30 kts of bulk shear, DCAPE values potentially over 1500 J/kg, and PWATs well over an inch would support the potential for storms to reach severe levels, with damaging wind gusts and flooding from heavy rain the main risks. If most of the area misses out today (which is very much a possibility), then hope returns again tomorrow as a slightly more prominent shortwave disturbance is slated to approach the region. One benefit of less precipitation today would be more fuel for showers & weak storms tomorrow. Overall, models agree that any instability in place would be on the weak side, so the threat of strong to severe storms is low at this time. Once again, the western half of the Panhandles should be favored, as drier air in the mid levels intrudes southward across the eastern Panhandles. Moisture could fill back in and improve overnight, maintaining about a 40-60% probability for activity to persist across more of the area into Monday morning. After recent rainfall, soils may be somewhat less receptive to additional downpours, meaning flash flooding from heavy rain will continue to be a threat. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A pattern change is on the way, but not before another day or two of northwest flow and precipitation chances. Monday will be relatively cool for this time of year, with some locations across the west not making it out of the 70s, while most will be in the low to mid 80s. This cooler airmass will be due in part to a weak cold front and lingering precipitation possible across the area. Tuesday looks warmer in the 80s, and we could see convection off higher terrain make it to the western Panhandles again. Questions regarding quality of moisture exist on both days, as drier air could very well filter in, especially across the easter Panhandles. Either way, showers and storms will be most likely on Monday, with decreasing chances through the weak. The decrease in precipitation will be thanks mostly to high pressure gradually building back over the Plains. As this occurs, warming 850mb temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies will help afternoon highs methodically climb towards the mid to upper 90s through the week. Diurnally driven convection wouldn`t be impossible any given day, but appears highly unlikely until at least next weekend at this time. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Conditions have markedly improved from this morning, but may decline again later this afternoon-evening due to scattered storm potential. Confidence in storms has decreased recently, although highest chances still exist for KDHT. Storms will be possible near KAMA and KGUY, but there`s limited clarity on a time frame for this potential, so any mentions have been left out for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions with north-northeast winds and mid level clouds will persist through the period. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 67 84 64 81 / 30 20 50 50 Beaver OK 62 85 61 85 / 10 10 10 10 Boise City OK 60 78 57 80 / 30 60 40 40 Borger TX 68 88 65 87 / 20 20 40 30 Boys Ranch TX 66 85 63 82 / 30 30 60 50 Canyon TX 65 85 63 79 / 30 30 50 50 Clarendon TX 66 85 64 80 / 30 20 30 40 Dalhart TX 61 80 58 81 / 30 50 50 40 Guymon OK 61 81 58 84 / 20 20 30 20 Hereford TX 65 84 63 81 / 30 40 60 50 Lipscomb TX 65 84 64 85 / 20 10 10 20 Pampa TX 65 84 62 82 / 20 10 30 40 Shamrock TX 66 85 64 83 / 30 10 20 40 Wellington TX 67 87 65 83 / 40 10 20 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38