018
FXUS64 KAMA 182310
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
610 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

As of 12 PM, a boundary is pushing west, but slowing with time, into
the western Texas Panhandle and now is showing signs of developing
cumulus upon it just west and south of Dalhart. A few CAMs suggest
that thunderstorms will develop in that vicinity or further south.
Additionally, cumulus have developed in the central and southern TX
Panhandle that have been trying to grow vertically, but have
generally failed thus far. As additional daytime heating occurs,
would anticipate that at least a few thunderstorms would develop.
Forecast soundings don`t terribly impressive this afternoon,
primarily due to mid-level lapse rates around 5.5-6.5 C/km, but
relatively rich low-level moisture and daytime heating should still
make 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE achievable with 1500 J/kg seeming to be
the ceiling. Per usual for July, wind shear is nothing to write home
about but effective bulk shear values between 25-30 kts would lead
to some storm organization. DCAPE values will be lower compared to
what we`re used to for July due to the below average temperatures,
but values between 1000-1300 J/kg is still achievable which is still
enough for a strong to severe wind gust. Hail up to quarter size is
not out of the realm of possibilities, but does seem to be a lower
threat than the wind due to the previously mentioned weak mid-level
lapse rates and generally skinny CAPE profile. However, if effective
bulk shear can overachieve and a supercell can occur, certainly
could see some quarter size hail.

Similar to yesterday, thunderstorms will develop off the New
Mexico/Colorado Rockies this afternoon. Again, similar to yesterday,
flow aloft this afternoon will be northwesterly but trend toward
northerly tonight which should keep thunderstorms in New Mexico away
from the CWA. The better chance for thunderstorms tonight will be
from what develops in east-central Colorado and move south-
southeast. Can`t rule out some gusty winds with this activity.

Friday morning... can`t rule out some lingering rain/storms or
clouds, but that should clear out by the afternoon. Models suggest
there will be impressive 700mb theta-e advection in the afternoon in
advance of a shortwave trough embedded in northwesterly flow aloft.
CAMs are in surprisingly good agreement regarding the development of
a line of thunderstorms in eastern Colorado/western Colorado Friday
evening that moves into the northern Panhandles around Midnight.
However, most CAMs hint that the line will struggle as it moves
through the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A north to northwest flow aloft will continue across the Panhandles
from Saturday through next Wednesday.  An upper level ridge will
persist over the Great Basin. Meanwhile and upper level trough will
persist over the Midwest.  A cold front moves through the Panhandles
early Saturday morning and another cold front moves through on
Sunday.  These fronts should help to increase our chances of showers
and thunderstorms as the fronts provide a focus to lift the low
level moist and unstable air.  Otherwise, daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday will have to rely on any
convection moving this way from the mountains or any left over
surface boundaries from day to day.  High temperatures are expected
to be around or below average Saturday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be present in the western
combined OK/TX Panhandle during the first 6 hours of this TAF
period. However, confidence is low in any one storm directly
impacting any of the terminals. KDHT has the better chance to see
impacts over KAMA or KGUY. Expect southerly winds around 10 to 15
kts with VFR conditions otherwise. Thunderstorm chances will begin
to increase towards the late parts of this TAF period into the
00Z Sat period.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  93  68  90 /  20  10  40  50
Beaver OK                  65  91  64  87 /  20  20  50  20
Boise City OK              62  93  61  86 /  40  30  50  20
Borger TX                  69  98  69  95 /  20  20  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              67  96  66  91 /  40  10  50  40
Canyon TX                  65  93  65  89 /  30  10  40  60
Clarendon TX               65  91  67  90 /  20  20  20  50
Dalhart TX                 62  94  61  89 /  40  10  50  30
Guymon OK                  64  93  62  87 /  20  20  50  20
Hereford TX                65  94  66  90 /  30  10  40  50
Lipscomb TX                65  91  67  89 /  20  20  40  40
Pampa TX                   65  91  66  89 /  20  20  40  50
Shamrock TX                65  91  67  90 /  20  20  20  60
Wellington TX              65  93  68  92 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...36