Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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701 FXUS64 KAMA 170803 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front has passes through the panhandles earlier this morning shifting the winds to the north and bringing cooler air to the panhandles. This morning is still seeing some light rain showers as moisture and instability from the front still linger over the region. This activity has a high chance of decreasing and ceasing through the morning hours. However the moisture and instability will still be present under the trough across the southern plains. So once daytime heating occurs further rain showers and thunderstorms have a high chance of developing. These would form mainly over the higher terrain in NM and CO before detaching and moving into the panhandles. This would make the western to central portions of the panhandles more likely to see rain showers and thunderstorms with the eastern panhandles having a lesser chance. There will be a small chance that a few of the storms could become strong to severe with winds being the main threat. Overall moisture values remain on the higher side as well which coupled with slow storm motions will allow for at least a small chance of flooding. The chance for severe weather and flooding will mimic the overall rain shower and thunder chance with better odds in the west and lesser odds in the east. The timing for these rain showers and thunderstorms in the panhandles will be more towards the later afternoon and evening hours. This due to the time it will take for the storms to form then drift to the panhandles. Some of the rain showers and thunderstorms could then persist through to the morning hours similar to this morning. Thursday should in large should see a similar scenario play out with another round of afternoon and evening rain showers. Overall moisture and instability look to be lower than today so the activity will more likely than not be less extensive and weaker compare to today. With the cooler air already streaming into the panhandles and with active weather that should bring cloudier skies temperatures will be cooler today compared to the scorching days we just had. Highs will fall into the 80s and 90s for both today and Thursday. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 An active weather pattern remains in full swing through the entire extended period. Upper level ridging continues in the southwest CONUS, while northwest flow prolongs over our region, and monsoonal moisture stays in effect. Several fronts are currently forecast to progress through our CWA during this time. This will allow for additional thunderstorm chances each day and consistent below average high temperatures. Friday, highs are progged to be the warmest out of the extended. Widespread 90`s and some upper 80`s are expected due to a small lull in the activity during the day. Overnight, a shortwave trough may enter the High Plains. This coupled with the low level jet in place should allow for organized, perhaps widespread, thunderstorm activity into Saturday. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe at this time. Saturday onward, NBM values and long range models suggest that thunderstorm production may occur each day, but confidence on further widespread precipitation or MCS systems is low at this time. Instead, a scattered to isolated thunderstorm regime is proposed. Chances for severe thunderstorms this far out in time are low due to fluctuating mesoscale parameters. However, it still cannot be entirely ruled out, as gusty winds and heavy rain are fully within the realm of possibility due to the seasonal environmental parameters we have as constants for mid July. 80`s and lower 90`s are forecast to be achieved for highs through the weekend. By Monday, the upper level trough becomes elongated through the Central Plains and heights decrease from northeast to southwest. This should allow for highs to decrease even further thanks to continuous northeasterly surface winds and increased chances for thunderstorms. Highs may range between the upper 70`s and 80`s on Monday. 80 degree temperatures and rain chances are anticipated to prolong through mid next week. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Ongoing rain showers persist across much of the panhandles early this morning with conditions remaining VFR. These rain showers will diminish and cease within the next few hours leaving fair weather conditions through to the afternoon hours. By the afternoon to evening hours rain showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and impact the panhandles. The most likely areas to be impacted is the western and northern panhandles with all TAF sites having at least a small chance of being directly impacted. The odds of rain showers and thunderstorms on station is highest at KDHT and lower for KAMA and KGUY. Even if the stations are directly hit conditions should remain VFR with possible dip down to MVFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 91 65 87 66 / 20 60 30 30 Beaver OK 87 63 86 62 / 20 20 10 10 Boise City OK 86 62 85 62 / 60 50 30 20 Borger TX 95 67 92 68 / 20 50 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 93 66 89 65 / 40 70 30 30 Canyon TX 91 65 86 64 / 30 60 30 30 Clarendon TX 91 65 87 64 / 20 50 30 10 Dalhart TX 89 60 86 61 / 50 60 30 20 Guymon OK 87 59 87 61 / 30 40 20 20 Hereford TX 94 65 88 64 / 30 70 30 30 Lipscomb TX 90 65 88 64 / 30 20 10 10 Pampa TX 89 64 87 63 / 30 40 20 20 Shamrock TX 92 65 90 64 / 30 40 20 10 Wellington TX 94 66 91 65 / 20 40 30 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...98