948
FXUS61 KALY 060549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and humidity today and likely tomorrow,
mainly in valley areas, where heat index values will reach into the
mid to upper 90s. Then, a slow moving cold front will result in
isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north and west of the
Capital District tomorrow with some storms potentially turning
strong to severe. As the front continues to slowly progresses south
and eastward Monday night into Tuesday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue with any storm capable of heavy downpours
given the moisture rich environment.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Message:

-  Dangerous heat and humidity today will result in heat index
   values or "feel-like" temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.
   Heat advisories go into effect today at 12pm for the Greater
   Capital District, Mohawk Valley, Upper Hudson Valley and mid-
   Hudson Valley through 8pm.

Discussion:
Latest satellite imagery shows broad ridging over the Northeast
into the mid-Atlantic while a shortwave trough tracks through
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. We can also see Tropical
Storm Chantel impacting the Carolinas. As the shortwave trough
progresses northeastward today, the pressure gradient between
its associated sfc cold front over southern Canada and high
pressure off the East Coast tightens. This will result in
stronger southwest flow aloft that will advect an even warm air
mass into the Northeast characterized by 850 hPa isotherms
reaching +18C to +20C. Forecast soundings show deep enough
boundary layer mixing enusing and given sunshine filtered mainly
through cirrus, temperatures today will turn hot rising into the
low to mid 90s in valley areas with mid to upper 80s. Southwest
flow will also raise dew points and humidity values. Therefore,
the combination of temperatures rising into the 90s and higher
humidity, we expect dangerous heat index values or "feel-like"
temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Our heat
advisory will go into effect at 12pm for the Capital District,
Upper Hudson Valley and central/eastern Mohawk Valley and we
expanded it further to include the western Mohawk Valley and the
mid- Hudson Valley. The advisory will be in effect through 8pm.
Latest CAMs continue to hint that a few isolated showers/storms
could pop-up in far north/western Herkimer/Hamilton County this
afternoon in response to weak height falls but given overall
weak forcing and with the main front displaced well to the
north/west in southern Canada, limited POPs to just slight
chance.

Any showers quickly dissipate by sunset. Then, another warm and
muggy night as the cold front in southern Canada slowly track
south/eastward towards the international border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Dangerous heat and humidity continues into Monday with heat
  index values or "feel-like" temperatures rising once again
  into the mid to upper 90s in valley areas. Additional heat
  advisories will likely be needed.

- With a humid air mass in place, areas of showers and
  thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon/night and again on
  Tuesday will be capable of producing heavy downpours.
  Localized flooding may result, especially in low-lying, urban,
  and poor drainage areas, especially if storms are slow moving
  or repeatedly impact a given area.

Discussion:

Coming soon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Coming soon.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to generally
prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception may be
for some brief/occasional fog at KGFL/KPSF in the overnight to early
morning hours. Confidence is low since there should be a fairly
thick canopy of high level clouds overhead, but there could be
enough breaks for some fog. VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU. Light &
variable winds less than 5 KT are expected overnight, then south to
southwest at 5-15 KT late this morning into the afternoon, with a
few gusts of 15-20 KT possible mainly at KGFL. Winds will subside to
under 5 KT this evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-
     084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VTZ015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speck