![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
771 FXUS61 KALY 161435 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1035 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in place through today, resulting in mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The weather then turns unsettled over the weekend into early next week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday, as a slow moving frontal system moves eastward across the region. It will become humid as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1035 AM EDT...A narrow upper level ridge is centered over the area this morning. At the surface, high pressure is located over the Northeast. Radar imagery is quiet this morning with the surface high pressure nearby. Visible satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies over the region, however, there is a thin layer of smoke aloft from distant wildfires. The guidance is showing a narrow corridor of higher instability over western New England with ~500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE. So even without synoptic forcing, an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during peak heating this afternoon due to differential heating. With the ridging aloft and subsidence, highs will be above normal with upper 70s/lower 80s in the mountains and mid/upper 80s in the valleys. As the upper ridge axis shifts east of our area, clouds will gradually increase from the west tonight. So lows will be milder than recent nights with upper 50s/lower 60s in the higher terrain and mid 60s in lower elevations. Most of the area should remain dry, however there is a low chance(20-30%) of a few showers prior to daybreak for areas well west of the Hudson Valley as a warm front approaches. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The weekend looks to feature mostly cloudy skies and unsettled conditions, although it will not be raining the entire time. Synoptically, an upper level low is forecast to gradually settle south/east across the central Great Lakes region on Sat, then shift east into the lower Great Lakes on Sun. At the surface, a warm front approaches on Sat, but likely stalls in vicinity of western/central NY as the pattern becomes more amplified with a ridge of high pressure extending south/west along the New England coast. In terms of sensible weather on Sat, scattered showers will spread eastward as a diffluent SW upper level flow sets up downstream of the upper low and east of the surface warm front. Now that we are in the CAMs time window, showers look to be rather spotty though with the best forcing displaced to our west. There could be a few T-storms due to some limited instability, but overall coverage should be sparse due to lack of any appreciable CAPE. Highs temperatures will be cooler due to more cloud cover with mainly 70s. Southerly winds will become gusty, as v-component wind anomalies at 850 mb increase to +2 to +3 STDEV. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common in many N-S oriented valleys and south facing mountain slopes. Showers and a few T-storms continue Sat night as the upper low starts to slowly move east towards the lower Great Lakes. There is the potential for some locally heavy rainfall within any persistent downpours, as PWATs rise to +1 to +2 STDEV. Coverage of showers should increase somewhat late Sat night as better forcing starts to nudge east. It will be a humid and mild night with low temperatures in the 60s. The upper low then is forecast to become an open wave trough as is meanders east into western NY/PA Sun into Sun night. So unsettled weather will increase during this time with a persistent moist southerly flow ahead of the upper trough axis. At the surface, the system`s triple point approaches. Enhanced forcing just ahead of the triple point with anomalous moisture in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) could focus a more coherent threat of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center continues have a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall across most of the area, with a Slight Risk(level 2 of 4) in Ulster into Dutchess Counties. Will monitor trends for possible expansion of Slight Risk in future outlooks. Localized flooding of urban and poor drainage areas may occur, with isolated to scattered flash flooding. The threat of severe storms is low due to limited instability. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled conditions expected Monday, as slow moving upper level trough and surface low track across the region. Expect occasional showers with embedded thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall may occur at times with PWAT`s of 1.5-1.75" (+1 to +2 SD) and possible repeated downpours in some locations given slow movement of system. Some lingering showers/thunderstorms possible Tuesday with upper level trough/cold pool nearby, especially for areas south and east of Albany, otherwise mainly dry for Wednesday and Thursday, although still can not rule out isolated afternoon showers across portions of the SW Adirondacks with cold air aloft persisting. Temperatures will generally remain slightly below normal through the period, with daytime highs mainly 75-80 in valley areas and 60s across higher terrain areas for Monday, and 70-75 in valleys with 60s across higher elevations Tuesday through Thursday along with much lower humidity levels. Overnight lows in the 40s across most higher terrain areas and the upper Hudson Valley, with lower/mid 50s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday, lingering fog and LIFR/VLIFR conditions should improve to VFR by 13Z-14Z/Fri at KGFL and KPSF, with VFR conditions then prevailing through early this evening. Some patchy stratus clouds could develop at KPSF toward 06Z/Sat with MVFR Cigs possible, with more widespread MVFR/borderline IFR Cigs are expected to develop between 08Z-12Z/Sat. Should the lower clouds fail to develop, ground fog and IFR/LIFR Vsbys may develop at KPSF after 06Z/Sat. Nearly calm wind should trend into the southeast to south at less than 5 KT by this afternoon. Winds will become light/variable after sunset, although may become south to southeast and increase to 5-10 KT at KALB after 04Z/Sat. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL