771
FXUS61 KALY 161435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1035 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in place through today, resulting in
mainly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The weather
then turns unsettled over the weekend into early next week with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday, as
a slow moving frontal system moves eastward across the region.
It will become humid as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1035 AM EDT...A narrow upper level ridge is centered over
the area this morning. At the surface, high pressure is located
over the Northeast. Radar imagery is quiet this morning with the
surface high pressure nearby. Visible satellite imagery shows
fairly clear skies over the region, however, there is a thin
layer of smoke aloft from distant wildfires.

The guidance is showing a narrow corridor of higher instability
over western New England with ~500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE. So even
without synoptic forcing, an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out during peak heating this afternoon due to
differential heating. With the ridging aloft and subsidence,
highs will be above normal with upper 70s/lower 80s in the
mountains and mid/upper 80s in the valleys.

As the upper ridge axis shifts east of our area, clouds will
gradually increase from the west tonight. So lows will be
milder than recent nights with upper 50s/lower 60s in the higher
terrain and mid 60s in lower elevations. Most of the area
should remain dry, however there is a low chance(20-30%) of a
few showers prior to daybreak for areas well west of the Hudson
Valley as a warm front approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend looks to feature mostly cloudy skies and unsettled
conditions, although it will not be raining the entire time.
Synoptically, an upper level low is forecast to gradually settle
south/east across the central Great Lakes region on Sat, then
shift east into the lower Great Lakes on Sun. At the surface, a
warm front approaches on Sat, but likely stalls in vicinity of
western/central NY as the pattern becomes more amplified with a
ridge of high pressure extending south/west along the New
England coast.

In terms of sensible weather on Sat, scattered showers will
spread eastward as a diffluent SW upper level flow sets up
downstream of the upper low and east of the surface warm front.
Now that we are in the CAMs time window, showers look to be
rather spotty though with the best forcing displaced to our
west. There could be a few T-storms due to some limited
instability, but overall coverage should be sparse due to lack
of any appreciable CAPE. Highs temperatures will be cooler due
to more cloud cover with mainly 70s. Southerly winds will become
gusty, as v-component wind anomalies at 850 mb increase to +2
to +3 STDEV. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common in many N-S
oriented valleys and south facing mountain slopes.

Showers and a few T-storms continue Sat night as the upper low
starts to slowly move east towards the lower Great Lakes. There is
the potential for some locally heavy rainfall within any persistent
downpours, as PWATs rise to +1 to +2 STDEV. Coverage of showers
should increase somewhat late Sat night as better forcing
starts to nudge east. It will be a humid and mild night with
low temperatures in the 60s.

The upper low then is forecast to become an open wave trough as
is meanders east into western NY/PA Sun into Sun night. So
unsettled weather will increase during this time with a
persistent moist southerly flow ahead of the upper trough axis.
At the surface, the system`s triple point approaches. Enhanced
forcing just ahead of the triple point with anomalous moisture
in place (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) could focus a more
coherent threat of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center
continues have a Marginal Risk(level 1 of 4) of excessive
rainfall across most of the area, with a Slight Risk(level 2 of
4) in Ulster into Dutchess Counties. Will monitor trends for
possible expansion of Slight Risk in future outlooks. Localized
flooding of urban and poor drainage areas may occur, with
isolated to scattered flash flooding. The threat of severe
storms is low due to limited instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled conditions expected Monday, as slow moving upper
level trough and surface low track across the region. Expect
occasional showers with embedded thunderstorms. Locally heavy
rainfall may occur at times with PWAT`s of 1.5-1.75" (+1 to +2
SD) and possible repeated downpours in some locations given slow
movement of system.

Some lingering showers/thunderstorms possible Tuesday with
upper level trough/cold pool nearby, especially for areas south
and east of Albany, otherwise mainly dry for Wednesday and
Thursday, although still can not rule out isolated afternoon
showers across portions of the SW Adirondacks with cold air
aloft persisting.

Temperatures will generally remain slightly below normal
through the period, with daytime highs mainly 75-80 in valley
areas and 60s across higher terrain areas for Monday, and 70-75
in valleys with 60s across higher elevations Tuesday through
Thursday along with much lower humidity levels. Overnight lows
in the 40s across most higher terrain areas and the upper Hudson
Valley, with lower/mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday, lingering fog and LIFR/VLIFR conditions
should improve to VFR by 13Z-14Z/Fri at KGFL and KPSF, with VFR
conditions then prevailing through early this evening.

Some patchy stratus clouds could develop at KPSF toward 06Z/Sat
with MVFR Cigs possible, with more widespread MVFR/borderline
IFR Cigs are expected to develop between 08Z-12Z/Sat. Should the
lower clouds fail to develop, ground fog and IFR/LIFR Vsbys may
develop at KPSF after 06Z/Sat.

Nearly calm wind should trend into the southeast to south at
less than 5 KT by this afternoon. Winds will become
light/variable after sunset, although may become south to
southeast and increase to 5-10 KT at KALB after 04Z/Sat.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL