061
FXUS61 KALY 140752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot but somewhat less humid than recent days.
Humidity levels will then increase Monday through Wednesday with
hot temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region
Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by
cooler and much less humid conditions by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 350 AM EDT, skies remain mostly clear, with patchy fog,
some locally dense across portions of the southern
Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley, as well as the Housatonic
Valley in SW MA/NW CT. Temps have cooled into the mid 50s across
portions of the SW Adirondacks, with 60s most other places.

Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with hot temperatures
once again. However, with lower PWAT`s in place, dewpoints will
likely remain and/or fall back into the lower/mid 60s or even
lower this afternoon. This will allow heat indices to remain
slightly below the actual temperatures this afternoon, with heat
indices generally reaching the lower 90s in valley areas,
perhaps briefly approaching 95 within portions of the mid
Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and becoming slightly more humid for tonight, with chances
of showers/thunderstorms late tonight across portions of the SW
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the leading edge of
more humid air approaches from the west. Lows mainly in the 60s,
though a few upper 50s are possible across the SW Adirondacks.

Hot and more humid for Monday, although dewpoints should
generally remain in the 60s. Actual temperatures should reach
90-95 within most valley areas, which should lead to heat
indices reaching the mid/upper 90s in these areas. However,
there is a possibility that some scattered
showers/thunderstorms, and/or debris clouds from upstream
convection limits temperatures somewhat. Due to this
uncertainty, have not issued heat advisories just yet, however
should confidence increase further, then heat advisories would
be issued later today for at lease some areas below 1000 feet in
elevation.

Increasing instability (MU CAPES >1000 J/kg) and possible
forcing from an upstream shortwave/MCV may bring scattered
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, some of which
could produce locally strong wind gusts given potentially steep
low level lapse rates and DCAPE around/over 1000 J/kg. SPC has
placed western areas (western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie
County/eastern Catskills) within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

Some lingering scattered showers/thunderstorms Monday night
possible, otherwise warm and humid with lows in the mid 60s to
lower/mid 70s.

Hot and humid conditions continue Tuesday, with some potential
for this being hotter than Monday, along with slightly higher
dewpoints. Significant instability (MU CAPES 1500-2500+ J/kg)
and additional shortwave energy approaching from the west could
allow for clusters of strong thunderstorms to develop. SPC has
placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. High
temperatures should reach the lower/mid 90s within most valley
areas and 80s across higher elevations. As dewpoints reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s within valley areas, heat indices should
reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s, and heat indices will likely
be needed for many elevations below 1000 feet.

Lingering showers/thunderstorms through Tuesday evening should
decrease in coverage overnight, however it will remain warm and
humid with patchy fog developing. Lows mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A sharp upper level shortwave will be located over the Great Lakes
on Wednesday and will be lifting to the northeast across southern
Canada by Thursday.  At the surface, a cold front will be moving
across the region.  There are some differences in the model guidance
regarding the exact timing, but the front looks to cross the area at
some point between late Wednesday and early Thursday.  Ahead of the
front, there should be a fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.  Depending on if the timing lines up with peak
heating on Wednesday, there will be the potential for strong storms
and heavy downpours with this activity.  In addition, it will be
continued warm and muggy ahead of the front on Wednesday and
southern areas could need another Heat Advisory once again. Highs
should be in the upper 80s to low 90s in valley areas with muggy
dewpoints near 70.

Once the front clears through the area, drier, cooler and less humid
air will move into the region for the late week. Will continue to
mention a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Thursday in case
the frontal timing is slower, but will keep the forecast dry for
Thursday night into the weekend, as high pressure builds into the
area.  Daytime temps will only be in the lower to middle 80s for
valley areas on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps mid to upper 80s
returning by Saturday. Dewpoints will be lowering down into the 50s
by Friday before recovering back into the 60s by Saturday.
Overnight lows look more comfortable compared to recent days with
mainly 50s to low 60s as well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite imagery and surface obs show skies are fairly clear
across the region early this morning. With the clear skies and
light/calm winds, some radiational fog has already developed at
KGFL. Will allow for periods of IFR fog there through sunrise.
The other sites should stay VFR, although cannot totally rule
out some brief MVFR mist at KPOU right around daybreak. Winds
will stay very light or calm through daybreak. Any fog/mist
should dissipate shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions
returning by 12z.

During the day on Sunday, flying conditions will be VFR for all
sites. After a clear morning, some diurnal cu (mainly few-sct)
will develop during the afternoon hours at 4-6 kft. Some cirrus
will start to spread into the region during Sunday evening as
well. Winds will be fairly light, either southerly or westerly
around 6 kts or less. It will stay dry with no precip on Sunday
into Sunday evening.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis