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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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995 FXUS61 KALY 100535 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 135 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front moves north of the region tonight into Wednesday, as the moisture from post tropical storm Beryl impacts into the region with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms into Thursday morning with some locally heavy rainfall. Warm and humid weather continues into Friday with additional showers and thunderstorms with the frontal boundary stalled near the New England Coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Earlier showers and storms across Litchfield County have dissipated, with just a few light showers now located across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley. Therefore, main change with this update was to cut back on PoPs with most of the area currently dry. Still expecting rain chances to increase late tonight and early tomorrow morning, especially west of I-87, as the warm front begins to lift north. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to other grids as previous forecast is in good shape regarding temp/dew point/sky cover trends. Will also mention some patchy fog possible in the typical sheltered areas tonight, although with increasing mid and high clouds any fog should be pretty isolated. .Previous...Some mid and high clouds well ahead of the remnants of Beryl and the diffuse warm front drifting north through our region, that will affect our region tonight. So, the mix of clouds and any convective debris, along with increasing deep moisture should result in lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... **Heat Advisory until 8 PM Wednesday for the mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics** **Flood Watch for Flash Flooding issued from noon Wednesday through noon Thursday for the southern Adirondacks through northern Lake George area** Increasing consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles for the enhanced low level convergence along the warm front, increasing boundary layer winds and a distinct wind shift, building north through the day Wednesday. Very anomalously high PWAT values within the airmass south of the warm front will provide the moisture that contributes to a zone of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, that shifts north into the southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George area, eventually building north of the area by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The strengthening southwest boundary layer flow south of the warm front, within the tropical airmass, could support some training convective elements but also the deep shear could support some damaging wind gusts and maybe an isolated tornado late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Outside of the convection, some intervals of sun will help temperatures to reach well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Heat indices in the mid Hudson Valley will be in the mid to upper 90s. There are mixed signals in sources of guidance in terms of a line or band of convection along the leading edge of some boundary layer drying and cooling as the remnants of Beryl and associated upper dynamics track north of the U.S./Canada border Wednesday night. There is still a potential threat for severe weather and localized flooding until this boundary tracks east and through our region by daybreak or just after daybreak Thursday. Included some localized scattered showers and storms Thursday but coverage should be less, and some sunshine outside of any convection, possible breezy winds, should help temperatures reach well into the 80s to near 90, and around 80 in higher terrain. More scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Friday but intervals of sunshine should help temperatures reach the mid 80s, with upper 70s to near 80 higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mean broad upper troughing over our region with embedded small upper impulses resulting in some disagreement in the timing and track of any systems that would support scattered showers and storms. So, indicating isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day, with Sunday having the best chances for being dry. A more organized, stronger upper system and associated cold front is possible in the Tuesday time frame next week. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday and cooler in higher terrain. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IR satellite imagery and surface obs show widespread mid level clouds are in place over the region. Based on upstream satellite imagery and model soundings, will expect these clouds to continue to be in place over the region through the rest of the overnight hours. Despite high dewpoints and calm winds, will not forecast any radiational fog through the rest of the overnight due to the cloud cover in place and will keep flying conditions VFR for all sites sites with bkn-ovc cigs around 15 kft and calm winds with no precip. A warm front will be lifting across the region during the day on Wednesday. KPOU/KPSF will quickly get in the warm sector, so there`s little threat for any precip there through most of the day, as the boundary should be north of that area. Meanwhile, KGFL has the best chance for seeing some showers and possible t-storms, mainly between 15z and 20z. Any t-storm could contain gusty winds and will include a PROB30 there for IFR conditions within a thunderstorm and gusty winds over 30 kts. KALB may be okay as most of the activity will be north and west of there, but will mention a VCSH during the afternoon in case a shower or t-storm gets close. Outside of any convection, it will be VFR with south to southeast winds of 5 to 10 kts and sct-bkn cigs around 4-6 kft and another layer around 12-15 kft. Another round of convection is expected with the storm`s cold front during the evening hours. This will again have the highest coverage near KGFL, although a stray shower or t-storm could get also get further south by the late evening. Most of the time, flying conditions will be VFR, but cannot rule out brief IFR conditions within any shower or t-storm, which may also contain gusty winds. Outlook... Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... A warm front and the remnant moisture from TC Beryl late tonight through Thursday morning will bring potential areas of heavy rainfall to eastern NY and western New England. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region in a threat for excessive rainfall in the Marginal to Slight Risk categories Wed and Thu, and moderate risk for the southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Confidence in the timing, coverage and amounts of any potential heavy rainfall is still uncertain. A flood watch for flash flooding has bee issued for the southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region. Some river flooding may be possible as well, but the latest MMEFS and NERFC guidance shows no flooding. Highest probabilities for one to three inches of rainfall Wed through Thu continue to be from the Mohawk Valley and I-90 corridor northward in the ALY HSA, but this axis of potential heavy rain could shift still further over the next day or so. Stay tuned for further updates. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Thursday morning for NYZ032-033-042-043-082-083. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060- 064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...KL/Main/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...NAS/Wasula