623
FXUS61 KALY 300550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry conditions to eastern New York and
western New England tonight through Monday. Very warm
conditions on Monday will give way to slightly cooler weather on
Tuesday along with some showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front. More seasonable weather returns for mid to late week
with an additional system bringing the potential for some
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will continue to build over the region through
tonight. With the high directly overhead along with calm winds,
radiational cooling conditions should allow temperatures to
fall back into the 50s to lower 60s tonight resulting in patchy
fog, especially in the favored sheltered areas.

High pressure slides off to the east on Monday as flow turns to
a more southerly direction. This will advect a warmer air mass
into the region both at the surface and aloft with 850 hPa
temperatures rising to around +18C. A mostly sunny sky should
allow temperatures to rise into the 80s to near 90 for most
locations. Moisture advection will slowly increase through the
day though dewpoints will generally remain in the low to
mid-60s through the afternoon hours. This will result in heat
index values (feels like temperatures) to be close to the
actual air temperatures with many locations topping out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. These values continue to remain just
below Heat Advisory criteria (95+ degrees).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, some of
  which can become strong to severe.

Discussion:

A low pressure system will then track across the region Monday
night through Tuesday. A warm front will slowly lift northward
Monday night. A weak upper level shortwave passing through the
flow could allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms as the front crosses. It will be a milder night
with lows only falling back into the mid-60s to lower 70s.

We will be warm sectored for part of Tuesday prior to the
passage of the main cold front. A prefrontal trough may also
cross the region ahead of the primary front. The main upper
level trough will approach from the west through the day,
crossing the region by Tuesday night. Despite Tuesday not being
as warm as Monday, higher humidity levels should support some
instability with SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear values of 30-40 kt. If the front crosses during the time
of peak heating, some strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible. We remain outlooked in a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center as well as a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall by the Weather Prediction
Center as any thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
heavy downpours with precipitable water values between 1.50 and
2.00 inches. The cold front crosses the region by Tuesday night
with drier and less humid conditions building in its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly dry and seasonable weather is expected on Wednesday with
weak high pressure building into the region. Highs will top out
in the 80s in the valleys and mid to upper 70s across the
higher elevations. A rather potent upper level trough and low
pressure system crosses the region on Thursday. Pending on the
timing of this system, some stronger thunderstorms could
accompany the front with some guidance members suggesting
favorable parameters for some stronger storms should the front
cross during peak heating. While the cold front crosses by
Thursday night, the upper level low and cold pool aloft may
linger into Friday, Independence Day, across northern New
England. While some isolated diurnal showers are possible across
northern areas, most areas should enjoy a pleasant day with
comfortable temperatures (70s to lower 80s) along with low
humidity.

High pressure and upper level ridging look to build into the
region for next weekend. There are some differences with the
strength of the ridge and whether or not precipitation will
remain displaced to the north and west of the area. Will monitor
trends in the coming days. We are currently predicting a trend
toward warmer and more humid conditions through the weekend with
a 20 to 40 percent chance for some showers and thunderstorms by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thru 06Z Tue...High pressure has moved over eastern NY and
western New England with clear skies and calm winds. Some
radiational mist/fog will likely form at the favored climo sites
such as KGFL/KPSF. KGFL has already seen some IFR/LIFR mist. We
will include IFR/LIFR mist/fog prior to 12Z/Mon. For KPSF we
used a TEMPO group for IFR/LIFR mist/fog between 08Z-12Z.
KALB/KPOU we were less confident and kept some MVFR/high VFR
shallow fog or mist forecasted. Expect widespread VFR
conditions to return after 12Z/Mon, except for KGFL where some
MVFR stratus 1.5-3.0 kft AGL will linger until the late morning.

Some high clouds will increase in the mid to late pm. Mid and
high clouds will prevail into the evening period, where a warm
front may bring some light showers or an isolated thunderstorm.
We included some VCSH groups after 02Z-03Z/Tue. PROB30 groups
may be needed later. The winds will be calm prior to 12Z/Mon,
and then will increase from the south/southeast at less than 10
KT in the late morning into the afternoon before becoming light
at 5 KT or less tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula