410
FXUS61 KALY 012320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this afternoon ahead of and along an incoming cold front.
Isolated severe storms are possible with strong to damaging
winds being the primary hazard. Regionwide dry conditions return
tomorrow before additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with isolated chances for severe storms, return
Thursday. Cooler, more comfortable temperatures can be expected
Thursday and Friday before oppressive heat returns for the
weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Isolated severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon with
  strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours
  posing the primary threat.

Discussion:

A slow moving cold front continues to approach the region this
afternoon at the forefront of an upper-level shortwave trough.
Eastern New York and western New England currently falls within
the warm sector of the parent low pressure system, displaced
well north of the area in northeast Quebec, with its attendant
warm front having completed its passage early this morning.
Sufficient dry air entrainment and atmospheric mixing has
allowed the previous mid-level stratus deck to erode across much
of the region, leaving behind some agitated cumulus and
subsequent plenty of breaks of sun. Temperatures have
subsequently risen well into the 80s and the low-level cap seen
on this morning`s 12z ALY sounding has been broken. Instability,
according to the latest SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis, has
increased moderately across the region with SBCAPE values
ranging anywhere from 1500 to 2500 J/kg.

Convection, according to the latest scans of the KENX radar, has
begun to fire off to our west in Central New York. Closer to the
axis of the cold front out in Western New York, an area of
patchy rain has developed and is gradually spreading eastward.
While the better convective environment exists off to our south
and west, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to spread into our forecast area later this
afternoon. Of the thunderstorms that form this afternoon, an
isolated few could become severe with the primary threat being
strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Deep moisture, marginally
steep low-level lapse rates, and moderate DCAPE all provide
confidence in this threat. Moderate shear across the region
increases this confidence further given the resulting potential
for tilted updrafts and possible linear organization. However,
it could be some time before storms are able to achieve the
strength necessary to produce strong to locally damaging gusts
given the mid-level cap that still exists on forecast soundings.
The progression of the front should help to erode this feature,
but with it`s slow momentum, it could be into this evening
before storms pose any sort of threat other than some cloud to
ground lightning. Additionally, most of the CAMs place the
better threat for severe convection within and south of the
Capital District where most of the clearing has been throughout
the day. Though some storms are possible early this afternoon,
most of the convection, including those storms with the
potential to become severe, looks to occur between 4 PM and 9 PM
this evening.

One other threat does exist with showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening: heavy downpours. With tall, skinny CAPE
profiles; high PWATs; and an all around very moist atmosphere,
heavy downpours are certainly possible within any shower or
thunderstorm that occurs during this period. Now, that said, the
flash flood threat is low at this time despite the Marginal Risk
for excessive rainfall across the area. Given the fairly dry
weather that we have experienced over the past several days,
most of these downpours will be producing beneficial rain. But
ponding of water in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas
certainly is possible especially given slower storm motion and
the potential for training storms today.

The threat for any severe thunderstorms should greatly diminish
with the loss of daytime heating this evening, but a few
lingering showers or thunderstorms could remain possible through
around 2 AM or so as the cold front finally begins to clear the
region. Drying in its wake should lead to skies clearing out for
many overnight, though as the boundary slows further upon
reaching the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New England,
persistent moisture should keep skies here at least partly to
potentially mostly cloudy. Those that do clear out and
experience rain this afternoon and evening will likely see some
patchy fog tonight with lows widely in the upper 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are once again possible on
  Thursday with the primary hazards of strong to locally
  damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure noses into the region in the wake of the
aforementioned cold front tomorrow morning as flow aloft becomes
zonal beneath the northeast-filling short wave. Dry conditions
will therefore be in place regionwide with temperatures in the
mid/upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier air behind the front, fairly
deep mixing, and resulting downsloping from west to northwest
winds should keep dewpoints tomorrow lower than previous days,
making these temperatures more comfortable. However, it is also
possible, as a result of these same processes, that highs
tomorrow could exceed the current forecast. Nonetheless, we will
remain well under Heat Advisory Criteria. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will be a few degrees below those of tonight with
values anticipated to range from the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday holds our next chance for showers and thunderstorms
with a positively tilted shortwave digging south and east into
the region about an upper low positioned around the James Bay. A
northwest to southeast-tracking, low-level cold front will also
provide forcing for ascent as it tracks through eastern New York
and western New England where moderate shear and instability
will exist with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates. While
latest CAMs indicate isolated to scattered convection, the
potency of the upper short wave and temperatures of the upper-
level cold pool (~ -13C to -15C) adds to the confidence that
there could be more coverage than what is currently being
predicted. One limiting factor will be the decreased moisture
throughout the area and the potential for cloud cover to hinder
radiation. The SPC currently has most of the area outlined in a
Marginal for severe thunderstorms Thursday with strong to
locally damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.
Will continue to monitor trends over the next couple of days.
That said, highs Thursday will be in the 70s to 80s.

In the wake of the front, Thursday night will feature clearing
skies as the short wave begins to rotate through the region
and high pressure builds in once again. Low temperatures
Thursday will fall widely to the 50s to near 60. Dry conditions
persist into Friday with surface high pressure dominating.
Cooler, much more comfortable high temperatures can be expected
for Friday with upper 60s to low 70s across higher terrain to
low 80s in the Valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Oppressive heat to return this weekend into early next week.

Discussion:
Much of the extended period will be dry as surface high pressure
remains largely in place and ridging gradually builds in
beginning Saturday. Unfortunately, as a result of the rise in
geopotential height, oppressive heat looks to make a return
especially Sunday into Monday. Latest NBM v 4.3 points to heat
indices in the low to mid 90s throughout the Hudson Valley
Sunday and Monday. Should confidence continue to increase with
time, Heat Advisories may be needed closer to these days.
Outside of the heat, only minor chances (slight chance to chance
PoPs) for precipitation exist Sunday afternoon and Monday
courtesy of a surface low nearing the region from in and around
the Great Lakes. However, confidence is low at this time in
coverage and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface cold front is in the process of moving through the
region. Some lingering light rain will continue to impact KPSF
and KPOU over the next few hours, which could still allow for
some brief MVFR conditions (mainly for visibility).

A band of mid level clouds associated with the frontal boundary is
still over the area but will be pushing off to the east towards
the middle of the night. Once clearing occurs, some radiational
fog may start to develop for the late night hours, especially
at KPSF/KPOU, where heavier rainfall occurred on Tuesday. KGFL
may see some brief fog as well, although this is more uncertain,
since little rainfall occurred there. Winds will be light to
calm overnight.

Any fog or mist should dissipate by 11z-13z thanks to strong
solar heating and a developing westerly breeze. Afterward, it
will be VFR conditions for all sites through the entire day on
Wednesday with no precip and mostly clear skies. Aside from
somne passing cirrus, few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds are
expected to form on Wednesday afternoon. Westerly winds will be
5 to 10 kts through the entire day on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis