843
FXUS61 KALY 272334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
734 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures with isolated to scattered rain showers and
storms are expected through tonight. Temperatures will moderate
Saturday ahead of a cold front, which will bring showers and
potentially strong storms during the afternoon and evening. Dry
conditions prevail Sunday with moderating temperatures once again
for early next week. Additional chances of showers and storms will
return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Isolated to scattered rain showers and storms through tonight with
  continued cooler temperatures

Discussion:

18z surface analysis showed sprawling surface high pressure centered
across New Hampshire and Maine. Across eastern NY and western New
England, skies were partly to mostly cloudy with light, cool and
moist southeasterly flow. Temperatures were in the upper 60s to low
70s.

As we head through the afternoon, much of the region will continue
to enjoy dry, tranquil conditions with highs climbing into upper 60s
(terrain) to upper 70s (valleys) under continued partly to mostly
cloud skies.  Part of the area (western Mohawk Valley into the
Catskills) remains under the influence of a mid level frontal
boundary just north of a surface stationary front across the
southern Mid Atlantic into the northern Great Lakes (dewpoints in
the low 70s currently in Buffalo), which is currently driving
isolated to scattered showers and storms across these areas. This
coverage will build north and east over the course of the
afternoon and evening, but should be in a decaying phase as it
interacts with the high pressure across the region. However,
cannot rule out a low chance (20-50%) of a rain shower across
these areas into the Capital District through this evening.

Heading into tonight, the aforementioned stationary front will begin
to lift back north as a warm front across Pennsylvania into southern
New York with the approach of a surface low and shortwave aloft from
the west. Isolated rain showers will be possible with the approach
of the front, but expecting most to remain dry. With continued cloud
cover and southeast flow, expecting morning lows to fall into the
50s (terrain) to low 60s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Warmer Saturday with increasing chances of PM showers and storms

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and
  evening with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts,
  torrential rain and lightning

Discussion:

Warm front will be lifting north across the area to start the short
term period with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible
through the early morning, especially north of Interstate 90.
Precipitation will taper by mid morning to early afternoon, with
some breaks of sunshine possible mainly from the Capital
District south into the Mid Hudson Valley. Outside of higher
terrain in the Greens, Catskill and ADKs, the area will be
fully immersed in the warm sector with highs climbing into the
upper 60s/low 70s (higher terrain) to mid 80s (lower
elevations/valleys).

Attention will turn to a cold front that will be approaching from
the northwest, which is associated with a strengthening surface low
that will be traversing southern Ontario and Quebec. Majority of
CAMs are in agreement of a line of showers and storms developing
along the pre-frontal trough/cold front as it tracks across the
area during the mid afternoon and early evening. Some of these
storms will have the potential to become severe as they
interact with an unstable air mass (SBCAPE/MLCAPEs climbing
around to 1000-2000 J/kg) and sufficient vertical shear (30-40
kts) that will be in place. That being said, there remains some
uncertainty in the degree of coverage as the best lift/vertical
shear and instability remain displaced from each other (highest
lift/shear to the north with the surface low, and highest
instability to the south in the Mid Atlantic), which may result
at coverage being more scattered. The Storm Prediction Center
maintains a Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe storms over the
whole CWA. With near straight hodographs favoring eastward
storm progression against a southwest-northeast oriented cold
front, storm mode of a line to broken line remains favored with
damaging winds the primary threat. In addition, PWATs of
around 1.6-2.0" and deep warm cloud depths should ensure
efficient rainfall processes and potential for heavy rain with
storms. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall,
which makes sense given 30-40 kt storm motion and that we have
precip amounts have been light over the last week.

We will dry out behind the front Saturday night into Sunday with
increasing sun and high pressure building into the Mid Atlantic.
While it will be less humid, temperatures will remain on the milder
side with PM highs Sunday climbing into the mid 70s (terrain) to low
80s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Increasing heat and humidity early near week with peak heat
   indices around 95-100 Monday.

 - Another round of showers and storms Monday night Tuesday
   with a cold front

 - Isolated showers and storms with near normal temperatures
   for mid week

Discussion:

For Monday, renewed southerly flow behind the departing high
pressure will send the departing cold front back north as a warm
front across the region. Low level temperatures will be warmer this
go-around with 925-850 hPa values around 15-20 degrees C, allowing
PM highs to climb well into the 80s areawide (some near 90 to even
low 90s in the western Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Hudson
Valley). With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s/ to lower 70s,
peak heat indices of around 95-100F are expected in lower
elevations. Will continue to monitor this period for potential heat
advisories.

Another shortwave and cold front will arrive across the region
Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in another round of showers and
storms for the region. Depending on the timing of the cold front,
some stronger storms may occur on Tuesday if the front moves through
later in the day, with favorability for this mainly south of the
Capital District at this time. Confidence remains low at this
time on the severe weather potential. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler Tuesday, but will remain warm, humid and above
normal despite the higher precip chances.

Drier air should prevail for much of the region beginning Wednesday
with weak high pressure following the cold front. However, guidance
does hint at potential for low chances (10-30%) of diurnally driven
rain showers and storms through the end of the week with weak
shortwave impulses embedded in northwesterly flow behind the
front. Regardless of the storm chances, it will be noticeably
less humid with temperatures back to near normal in the upper
70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites before ceilings
lower to MVFR from south to north between 04Z-09Z. Ceilings
will continue to drop to IFR south of KALB after 09Z. A mix of
MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the
morning before gradually lifting after 16Z. There is a medium
chance for a line of thunderstorms to move from west to east
across the area during the afternoon hours Saturday and PROB30
groups were added to the reflect the most likely timing of
impacts. Light south winds overnight will increase to around 10
knots during the morning hours on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Humphrey